Indicators of transitions in biological systems

Alternative stable states and spatial indicators of critical slowing down along a spatial gradient in a savanna ecosystem

(2017) Stephanie Eby et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases

(2017) Tobias S. Brett et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Indications of hysteresis and early warning signals of reduced community resilience during a Bering Sea cold anomaly

(2017) MA Litzow   MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES

Enhancement of early warning properties in the Kuramoto model and in an atrial fibrillation model due to an external perturbation of the system

(2017) David García-Gudiño et al.   PLoS One

Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation

(2017) Jim van Belzen et al.   Nature Communications

Remotely-Sensed Early Warning Signals of a Critical Transition in a Wetland Ecosystem

(2017) Sara Alibakhshi et al.   Remote Sensing

Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation

(2017) Vince L. Butitta et al.   Ecosphere

Indications of hysteresis and early warning signals of reduced community resilience during a Bering Sea cold anomaly

(2017) MA Litzow   MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks

(2017) Christopher F. Clements et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Network based early warning indicators of vegetation changes in a land–atmosphere model

(2016) Z. Yin et al.   Ecological Complexity

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

(2016) Shana M. Sundstrom et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Reversal of a cyanobacterial bloom in response to early warnings

(2016) Michael L. Pace et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

(2016) Trisha L. Spanbauer et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

(2016) Christopher F. Clements et al.   Nature Communications

Rate of forcing and the forecastability of critical transitions

(2016) Christopher F. Clements et al.   Ecology and Evolution

The Body Size Dependence of Trophic Cascades

(2015) John P. DeLong et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Factors Influencing the Detectability of Early Warning Signals of Population Collapse

(2015) Christopher F. Clements et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Experimental Perturbations Modify the Performance of Early Warning Indicators of Regime Shift

(2015) Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi et al.   CURRENT BIOLOGY

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

(2015) Owen L. Petchey et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades

(2015) Paraskevas Vasilakopoulos et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Do early warning indicators consistently predict nonlinear change in long-term ecological data?

(2015) Sarah J. Burthe et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Evaluating adaptive co-management as conservation conflict resolution: Learning from seals and salmon

(2015) J.R.A. Butler et al.   JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

Eluding catastrophic shifts

(2015) Paula Villa Martín et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change

(2015) Daniel E. Schindler et al.   SCIENCE

Termite mounds can increase the robustness of dryland ecosystems to climatic change

(2015) J. A. Bonachela et al.   SCIENCE

Spatially heterogeneous pressure raises risk of catastrophic shifts

(2015) Florian D. Schneider et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination

(2015) Suzanne M. O’Regan et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Interaction network based early-warning indicators of vegetation transitions

(2014) G. Tirabassi et al.   Ecological Complexity

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder

(2014) Arpat Ozgul et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

(2014) V. Dakos et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

(2014) Sonia Kéfi et al.   PLoS One

Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks

(2014) Samir Suweis et al.   PLoS One

Early warnings of regime shifts: evaluation of spatial indicators from a whole-ecosystem experiment

(2014) Timothy J. Cline et al.   Ecosphere

Ecological consequences of body size decline in harvested fish species: positive feedback loops in trophic interactions amplify human impact

(2013) A. Audzijonyte et al.   Biology Letters

Predator-prey dynamics and the plasticity of predator body size

(2013) John P. DeLong et al.   FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY

Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

(2013) Lei Dai et al.   NATURE

A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series

(2013) Stephen R. Carpenter et al.   OIKOS

Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur without Early Warning: Examples of Silent Catastrophes in Structured Ecological Models

(2013) Maarten C. Boerlijst et al.   PLoS One

Predictive systems ecology

(2013) M. R. Evans et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination

(2013) Suzanne M. O’Regan et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Statistical indicators and state–space population models predict extinction in a population of bobwhite quail

(2013) Trevor J. Hefley et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Regime shifts in a social-ecological system

(2013) Steven J. Lade et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

(2013) Carl Boettiger et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Interactive effects of body-size structure and adaptive foraging on food-web stability

(2012) Lotta Heckmann et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

(2012) Sonia Kéfi et al.   OIKOS

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

(2012) T. M. Lenton et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system

(2012) P. Ashwin et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

(2012) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PLoS One

Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

(2012) L. Dai et al.   SCIENCE

Anticipating Critical Transitions

(2012) M. Scheffer et al.   SCIENCE

Gradual regime shifts in spatially extended ecosystems

(2012) Golan Bel et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems

(2012) William W. L. Cheung et al.   Nature Climate Change

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

(2012) Steven J. Lade et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Conditional Heteroscedasticity as a Leading Indicator of Ecological Regime Shifts

(2011) David A. Seekell et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Slowing Down in Spatially Patterned Ecosystems at the Brink of Collapse

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Specimen-Based Modeling, Stopping Rules, and the Extinction of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker

(2011) NICHOLAS J. GOTELLI et al.   CONSERVATION BIOLOGY

Environmental modulation of self-organized periodic vegetation patterns in Sudan

(2011) Vincent Deblauwe et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   SCIENCE

Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change

(2011) Stephen Polasky et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Shrinking body size as an ecological response to climate change

(2011) Jennifer A. Sheridan et al.   Nature Climate Change

Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate–population model

(2010) Jonathan A. Hare et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning

(2010) Alan Hastings et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

(2010) Erik Jeppesen et al.   HYDROBIOLOGIA

Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

(2010) John M. Drake et al.   NATURE

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

(2009) Julien Martin et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

(2009) WILLIAM W. L. CHEUNG et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

(2009) Reinette Biggs et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The Dynamics of Phenotypic Change and the Shrinking Sheep of St. Kilda

(2009) Arpat Ozgul et al.   SCIENCE

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

(2009) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation

(2009) Joern Fischer et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Crossing habitat boundaries: coupling dynamics of ecosystems through complex life cycles

(2008) Sebastian Schreiber et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems

(2008) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Is conservation triage just smart decision making?

(2008) Madeleine C. Bottrill et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION