The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

Experimental evidence for strong stabilizing forces at high functional diversity of aquatic microbial communities

(2015) Francesco Carrara et al.   ECOLOGY

Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change

(2015) Daniel E. Schindler et al.   SCIENCE

Fundamental ecology is fundamental

(2015) Franck Courchamp et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy

(2014) J. Pottier et al.   Biology Letters

Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology

(2014) Richard A. Stillman et al.   BIOSCIENCE

Leaps of Faith: How Implicit Assumptions Compromise the Utility of Ecosystem Models for Decision-making

(2014) Edward J. Gregr et al.   BIOSCIENCE

Open questions: are the dynamics of ecological communities predictable?

(2014) H Charles J Godfray et al.   BMC BIOLOGY

Scale dependency in the functional form of the distance decay relationship

(2014) Jeffrey C. Nekola et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Phenotypic plasticity influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a predator–prey system

(2014) Beat B. Fischer et al.   ECOLOGY

A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions

(2014) Benjamin Gilbert et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

CHAOS AND UNPREDICTABILITY IN EVOLUTION

(2014) Michael Doebeli et al.   EVOLUTION

ThecompadrePlant Matrix Database: an open online repository for plant demography

(2014) Roberto Salguero-Gómez et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

(2014) S. Vincenzi   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Earth systems: Model human adaptation to climate change

(2014) Paul I. Palmer et al.   NATURE

Complexity is costly: a meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting

(2014) Eric J. Ward et al.   OIKOS

Model-free quantification of time-series predictability

(2014) Joshua Garland et al.   PHYSICAL REVIEW E

Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness

(2014) Courtney D. Corley et al.   PLoS One

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

(2014) R. Seferian et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Validation and calibration of probabilistic predictions in ecology

(2014) Corey Chivers et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Ecological stability in response to warming

(2014) Katarina E. Fussmann et al.   Nature Climate Change

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

(2014) Lawrence N. Hudson et al.   Ecology and Evolution

Emergent Global Patterns of Ecosystem Structure and Function from a Mechanistic General Ecosystem Model

(2014) Michael B. J. Harfoot et al.   PLOS BIOLOGY

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

(2013) Antoine Guisan et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Predicting novel trophic interactions in a non-native world

(2013) Ian S. Pearse et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Observing changing ecological diversity in the Anthropocene

(2013) David S Schimel et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Does model-free forecasting really outperform the true model?

(2013) F. Hartig et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Reply to Hartig and Dormann: The true model myth

(2013) C. T. Perretti et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Integrating the invisible fabric of nature into fisheries management

(2013) J. Travis et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data

(2013) C. T. Perretti et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

How to predict community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

(2013) H. Aufderheide et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries

(2013) L. N. Hudson et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Predictive systems ecology

(2013) M. R. Evans et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Essential Biodiversity Variables

(2013) H. M. Pereira et al.   SCIENCE

Biodiversity data should be published, cited, and peer reviewed

(2013) Mark J. Costello et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Inferring food web structure from predator-prey body size relationships

(2013) Dominique Gravel et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Simple rules describe bottom-up and top-down control in food webs with alternative energy pathways

(2012) Sabine Wollrab et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns

(2012) Jeffrey M. Diez et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Testing the predictive performance of distribution models

(2012) Volker Bahn et al.   OIKOS

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

(2012) J. Shaman et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems

(2012) G. Sugihara et al.   SCIENCE

Assimilation of multiple data sets with the ensemble Kalman filter to improve forecasts of forest carbon dynamics

(2011) Chao Gao et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Does rapid evolution matter? Measuring the rate of contemporary evolution and its impacts on ecological dynamics

(2011) Stephen P. Ellner et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Toward an integration of evolutionary biology and ecosystem science

(2011) Blake Matthews et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

TRY - a global database of plant traits

(2011) J. KATTGE et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time

(2011) Alycia L. Stigall   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Predictive ecology: systems approaches

(2011) M. R. Evans et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

(2011) M. R. Evans   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology

(2011) V. Grimm et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

(2011) D. Spiegelhalter et al.   SCIENCE

The limits to prediction in ecological systems

(2011) Brian Beckage et al.   Ecosphere

Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate–population model

(2010) Jonathan A. Hare et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits

(2010) Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

(2010) Mark Novak et al.   ECOLOGY

Predicting the effects of temperature on food web connectance

(2010) O. L. Petchey et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods

(2009) Adam C. Algar et al.   ECOGRAPHY

The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions

(2009) Audrey Coreau et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Tropical forest carbon assessment: integrating satellite and airborne mapping approaches

(2009) Gregory P Asner   Environmental Research Letters

The velocity of climate change

(2009) Scott R. Loarie et al.   NATURE

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Commentary on Holmesetal.(2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable

(2008) Stephen P. Ellner et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community

(2008) Elisa Benincà et al.   NATURE

Simple prediction of interaction strengths in complex food webs

(2008) E. L. Berlow et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Assessing and predicting biodiversity in a floodplain ecosystem: Assimilation of net primary production derived from imaging spectrometer data into a dynamic vegetation model

(2008) Lammert Kooistra et al.   REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT

Predictive Models of Forest Dynamics

(2008) D. Purves et al.   SCIENCE