Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur without Early Warning: Examples of Silent Catastrophes in Structured Ecological Models

(2013) Maarten C. Boerlijst et al.   PLoS One

When an ecological regime shift is really just stochastic noise

(2013) S. C. Doney et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

(2013) E. Di Lorenzo et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Time Scales of Critical Events Around the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary

(2013) P. R. Renne et al.   SCIENCE

Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems

(2012) Charles T. Perretti et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state

(2012) Rong Wang et al.   NATURE

Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere

(2012) Anthony D. Barnosky et al.   NATURE

Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

(2012) Sonia Kéfi et al.   OIKOS

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

(2012) T. M. Lenton et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

(2012) Martin Lindegren et al.   PLoS One

Early Warnings of Regime Shift When the Ecosystem Structure Is Unknown

(2012) William A. Brock et al.   PLoS One

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

(2012) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PLoS One

Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

(2012) L. Dai et al.   SCIENCE

Anticipating Critical Transitions

(2012) M. Scheffer et al.   SCIENCE

Gradual regime shifts in spatially extended ecosystems

(2012) Golan Bel et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

(2012) Steven J. Lade et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Conditional Heteroscedasticity as a Leading Indicator of Ecological Regime Shifts

(2011) David A. Seekell et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Slowing Down in Spatially Patterned Ecosystems at the Brink of Collapse

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   ECOLOGY

Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: Rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states

(2011) A. Carla Staver et al.   ECOLOGY

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   ECOLOGY

Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary

(2011) John W. Williams et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Alternative stable states explain unpredictable biological control of Salvinia molesta in Kakadu

(2011) Shon S. Schooler et al.   NATURE

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   SCIENCE

Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions

(2011) M. Hirota et al.   SCIENCE

Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change

(2011) Stephen Polasky et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings

(2010) W. A. Brock et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning

(2010) Alan Hastings et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking

(2010) Peter D. Ditlevsen et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

(2010) John M. Drake et al.   NATURE

Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform

(2010) S. R. Carpenter et al.   Ecosphere

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

(2009) T. M Lenton et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

(2009) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation

(2009) Joern Fischer et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

INCREASED SPATIAL VARIANCE ACCOMPANIES REORGANIZATION OF TWO CONTINENTAL SHELF ECOSYSTEMS

(2008) Michael A. Litzow et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Crossing habitat boundaries: coupling dynamics of ecosystems through complex life cycles

(2008) Sebastian Schreiber et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems

(2008) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Critical slowing down as an indicator of transitions in two-species models

(2008) Ryan A. Chisholm et al.   JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity

(2008) Brett A. Melbourne et al.   NATURE

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems

(2008) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Regular pattern formation in real ecosystems

(2008) Max Rietkerk et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION