How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

(2016) Damien A. Fordham et al.   Biology Letters

Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?

(2016) Alexander Singer et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

(2016) David M. Bell et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

(2016) David García-Callejas et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

(2016) Damaris Zurell et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Correction to ‘Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities’

(2016) Kaitlin C. Maguire et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

(2016) M. C. Urban et al.   SCIENCE

Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies

(2016) Damien A. Fordham et al.   Nature Climate Change

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

(2015) Elske van der Vaart et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

(2015) Johan Ehrlén et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities

(2015) James W. Pearce-Higgins et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

REVIEW: Predictive ecology in a changing world

(2015) Nicolas Mouquet et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Revisiting the past to foretell the future: summer temperature and habitat area predict pika extirpations in California

(2015) Joseph A. E. Stewart et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

(2015) K. Wells et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species

(2015) Thibaud Rougier et al.   PLoS One

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation

(2014) Emily Lambert et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

(2014) Javier Gutiérrez Illán et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

(2014) C. J. A. Bradshaw et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Better forecasts of range dynamics using genetic data

(2014) Damien A. Fordham et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Modelling range dynamics under global change: which framework and why?

(2014) Miguel Lurgi et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

RangeShifter: a platform for modelling spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes

(2014) Greta Bocedi et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Using plant distributions to predict the current and future range of a rare lizard

(2013) Steven Delean et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Evaluation of species distribution models by resampling of sites surveyed a century ago by Joseph Grinnell

(2013) Adam B. Smith et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Tools for integrating range change, extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

(2013) Damien A. Fordham et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change

(2013) Damien A. Fordham et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset

(2013) I. Harris et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

(2013) D. A. Fordham et al.   Nature Climate Change

The MIGCLIM R package - seamless integration of dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models

(2012) Robin Engler et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

(2012) Miguel B. Araújo et al.   ECOLOGY

Landscape planning for the future: using fossil records to independently validate bioclimatic envelope models for economically valuable tree species in Europe

(2012) Marc Macias-Fauria et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Managing the long-term persistence of a rare cockatoo under climate change

(2012) J. Berton C. Harris et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

How to understand species’ niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography

(2012) Frank M. Schurr et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Climatic Associations of British Species Distributions Show Good Transferability in Time but Low Predictive Accuracy for Range Change

(2012) Giovanni Rapacciuolo et al.   PLoS One

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

(2011) Miguel B. Araújo et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

(2011) Raquel A. Garcia et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

(2011) Damien A. Fordham et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models: a palaeoecological perspective

(2011) David R. Roberts et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Representing two centuries of past and future climate for assessing risks to biodiversity in Europe

(2011) Stefan Fronzek et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

(2011) Maria Triviño et al.   PLoS One

Combining static and dynamic variables in species distribution models under climate change

(2011) Jessica C. Stanton et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

The role of climate, habitat, and species co-occurrence as drivers of change in small mammal distributions over the past century

(2010) EMILY M. RUBIDGE et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

(2010) H. M. Pereira et al.   SCIENCE

The art of modelling range-shifting species

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

(2009) Robin Engler et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

(2009) Robin Engler et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

(2009) José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia

(2008) Peter B. Pearman et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Niche dynamics in space and time

(2008) Peter B. Pearman et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION