Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

On using integral projection models to generate demographically driven predictions of species' distributions: development and validation using sparse data

(2014) Cory Merow et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

(2014) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Probabilistic and spatially variable niches inferred from demography

(2014) Jeffrey M. Diez et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

(2014) Johan P. Dahlgren et al.   OECOLOGIA

Finite-sample equivalence in statistical models for presence-only data

(2013) William Fithian et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

Variation in stochastic demography between and within central and peripheral regions in a widespread short-lived herb

(2013) Jesús Villellas et al.   ECOLOGY

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid

(2013) Nina Sletvold et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Impacts of climate change on avian populations

(2013) Stephanie Jenouvrier   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Climate-related variation in mortality and recruitment determine regional forest-type distributions

(2013) Mark C. Vanderwel et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Building integral projection models: a user's guide

(2013) Mark Rees et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

REVIEW: Identifying links between vital rates and environment: a toolbox for the applied ecologist

(2013) Morten Frederiksen et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Seedling emergence responds to both seed source and recruitment site climates: a climate change experiment combining transplant and gradient approaches

(2013) Eric Meineri et al.   PLANT ECOLOGY

Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming

(2013) P. De Frenne et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

(2013) Cory Merow et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Burning creates contrasting demographic patterns in Polygala lewtonii (Polygalaceae): a cradle-to-grave analysis of multiple cohorts in a perennial herb

(2012) Carl W. Weekley et al.   AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

(2012) Juliano Sarmento Cabral et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Plant performance in central and northern peripheral populations of the widespreadPlantago coronopus

(2012) Jesús Villellas et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

(2012) Miguel B. Araújo et al.   ECOLOGY

The demographic impacts of shifts in climate means and extremes on alpine butterflies

(2012) Lauren B. Buckley et al.   FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY

Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing the response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies

(2012) Viktoriia Radchuk et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

How to understand species’ niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography

(2012) Frank M. Schurr et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

A physiological analogy of the niche for projecting the potential distribution of plants

(2012) Steven I. Higgins et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Interactions among fire, grazing, harvest and abiotic conditions shape palm demographic responses to disturbance

(2012) Lisa Mandle et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Identifying the demographic processes relevant for species conservation in human-impacted areas: does the model matter?

(2012) Edgar J. González et al.   OECOLOGIA

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

(2012) R. Salguero-Gomez et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

(2012) Stefan Dullinger et al.   Nature Climate Change

Moving forward in global-change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability

(2012) Inés Ibáñez et al.   Ecology and Evolution

The Geography of Demography: Long-Term Demographic Studies and Species Distribution Models Reveal a Species Border Limited by Adaptation

(2011) V. M. Eckhart et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Effect of land use and climate change on the future fate of populations of an endemic species in central Europe

(2011) Anna Bucharová et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Nonlinear relationships between vital rates and state variables in demographic models

(2011) Johan P. Dahlgren et al.   ECOLOGY

Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

(2011) David A. Miller et al.   ECOLOGY

Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics

(2011) Jörn Pagel et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Patterns and causes of demographic variation in a harvested moose population: evidence for the effects of climate and density-dependent drivers

(2011) Glen S. Brown   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

Forecasting plant community impacts of climate variability and change: when do competitive interactions matter?

(2011) Peter B. Adler et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Interdependent effects of habitat quality and climate on population growth of an endangered plant

(2011) Florence Nicolè et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Incorporating environmental change over succession in an integral projection model of population dynamics of a forest herb

(2011) Johan P. Dahlgren et al.   OIKOS

Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from environment and phenotypes in an age-structured population

(2011) F. Pelletier et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models

(2011) Richard Rebarber et al.   THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY

A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

(2010) Christine M. Hunter et al.   ECOLOGY

Climate influences the demography of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants

(2010) Harmony J. Dalgleish et al.   ECOLOGY

Alternative regression methods are not considered in Murtaugh (2009) or by ecologists in general

(2010) Johan P. Dahlgren   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Causes and consequences of variation in plant population growth rate: a synthesis of matrix population models in a phylogenetic context

(2010) Yvonne M. Buckley et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Influence of Density and Climate on Population Dynamics of a Large Herbivore Under Harsh Environmental Conditions

(2010) M. Anouk Simard et al.   JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts

(2010) Daniel F. Doak et al.   NATURE

Linking environmental and demographic data to predict future population viability of a perennial herb

(2010) Per Toräng et al.   OECOLOGIA

Why does phenology drive species distribution?

(2010) I. Chuine   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance

(2009) Jeremy VanDerWal et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

Impacts of insect herbivory on cactus population dynamics: experimental demography across an environmental gradient

(2009) Tom E. X. Miller et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Integral projection models for populations in temporally varying environments

(2009) Mark Rees et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

A time to grow and a time to die: a new way to analyze the dynamics of size, light, age, and death of tropical trees

(2009) C. Jessica E. Metcalf et al.   ECOLOGY

Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges

(2009) Michael Kearney et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species

(2009) Juliano S. Cabral et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Linking environmental variation to population dynamics of a forest herb

(2009) Johan P. Dahlgren et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Multiple life stages with multiple replicated density levels are required to estimate density dependence for plants

(2009) Satu Ramula et al.   OIKOS

Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

(2009) J. A. Wiens et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Bringing the Hutchinsonian niche into the 21st century: Ecological and evolutionary perspectives

(2009) R. D. Holt   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

(2008) D. A Keith et al.   Biology Letters

ESTIMATING THE FUNCTIONAL FORM FOR THE DENSITY DEPENDENCE FROM LIFE HISTORY DATA

(2008) T. Coulson et al.   ECOLOGY

Using rainout shelters to evaluate climate change effects on the demography of Cryptantha flava

(2008) Richard W. Lucas et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA

(2008) C. Moritz et al.   SCIENCE

A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century

(2008) J. Lenoir et al.   SCIENCE

Linking Traits to Energetics and Population Dynamics to Predict Lizard Ranges in Changing Environments

(2007) Lauren B. Buckley   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges

(2007) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   PERSPECTIVES IN PLANT ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS