Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

Climate Relicts: Past, Present, Future

(2011) Arndt Hampe et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

Misleading results from conventional gap analysis – Messages from the warming north

(2011) Heini Kujala et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Predicting the invasion risk by the alien bee-hawking Yellow-legged hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax across Europe and other continents with niche models

(2011) Claire Villemant et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments

(2011) A. Jiménez-Valverde et al.   BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS

Using species co-occurrence networks to assess the impacts of climate change

(2011) Miguel B. Araújo et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change

(2011) H.K. Nenzén et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling

(2011) Narayani Barve et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

(2011) Lauren B. Buckley et al.   ECOLOGY

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

(2011) Miguel B. Araújo et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

(2011) Raquel A. Garcia et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

(2011) Damien A. Fordham et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Ecological niche conservatism: a time-structured review of evidence

(2011) A. Townsend Peterson   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

(2011) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   NATURE

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

(2011) Maria Triviño et al.   PLoS One

Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: where to go from here?

(2010) Laure Gallien et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Climate, climate change and range boundaries

(2010) Chris D. Thomas   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Niche and area of distribution modeling: a population ecology perspective

(2010) Jorge M. Soberón   ECOGRAPHY

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

(2010) Eliane S. Meier et al.   ECOGRAPHY

An evaluation of environmental factors affecting species distributions

(2010) Michael B. Ashcroft et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits

(2010) Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

POC plots: calibrating species distribution models with presence-only data

(2010) Steven J. Phillips et al.   ECOLOGY

Dominant climate influences on North American bird distributions

(2010) Alberto Jiménez-Valverde et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

(2010) Patrick Gonzalez et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Weak climatic associations among British plant distributions

(2010) Daniel S. Chapman   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Improving species distribution models for climate change studies: variable selection and scale

(2010) Mike P. Austin et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

(2010) H. M. Pereira et al.   SCIENCE

Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change

(2010) Michael R. Kearney et al.   Conservation Letters

The art of modelling range-shifting species

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory

(2010) Luis-Miguel Chevin et al.   PLOS BIOLOGY

Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance

(2009) Jeremy VanDerWal et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Minimizing false-negatives when predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species: a bioclimatic envelope for the red-eared slider at global and regional scales

(2009) K. Heidy Kikillus et al.   ANIMAL CONSERVATION

Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate

(2009) Matthew C. Fitzpatrick et al.   BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

(2009) B. W. Brook et al.   Biology Letters

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

(2009) Robin Engler et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change

(2009) Andrés Baselga et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?

(2009) Damaris Zurell et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

(2009) José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data

(2009) Steven J. Phillips et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: How far should you stray from what you know?

(2009) Jeremy VanDerWal et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Historically calibrated predictions of butterfly species' range shift using global change as a pseudo-experiment

(2009) Heather M. Kharouba et al.   ECOLOGY

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

(2009) Joshua J. Lawler et al.   ECOLOGY

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

(2009) CHRISTOPHE F. RANDIN et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

(2009) David Nogués-Bravo   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito,Aedes albopictusSkuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

(2009) Kim A. Medley   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Something from nothing: Using landscape similarity and ecological niche modeling to find rare plant species

(2009) Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira et al.   JOURNAL FOR NATURE CONSERVATION

Physiological responses and statistical models of the environmental niche: a comparative study of two co-occurringEucalyptusspecies

(2009) Michael P. Austin et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

A Mechanistic Niche Model for Measuring Species' Distributional Responses to Seasonal Temperature Gradients

(2009) William B. Monahan   PLoS One

Calculations on the back of a climate envelope: Addressing the geography of species distributions

(2009) R. J. Aspinall et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Niches and distributional areas: Concepts, methods, and assumptions

(2009) J. Soberon et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change

(2009) M. W. Tingley et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

(2009) R. R. Dunn et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Do climate envelope models transfer? A manipulative test using dung beetle introductions

(2009) R. P Duncan et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change

(2009) B.J Anderson et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

(2009) Mary S Wisz et al.   BMC ECOLOGY

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter

(2008) O. Broennimann et al.   Biology Letters

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

(2008) D. A Keith et al.   Biology Letters

Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change

(2008) R. E Green et al.   Biology Letters

Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling

(2008) Alberto Jiménez-Valverde et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling

(2008) Mathieu Marmion et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation

(2008) Steven J. Phillips et al.   ECOGRAPHY

A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence and kappa

(2008) Elizabeth A. Freeman et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

(2008) A. Townsend Peterson et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Phylogenetic niche conservatism, phylogenetic signal and the relationship between phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity among species

(2008) Jonathan B. Losos   ECOLOGY LETTERS

ENVIRONMENTAL NICHE EQUIVALENCY VERSUS CONSERVATISM: QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO NICHE EVOLUTION

(2008) Dan L. Warren et al.   EVOLUTION

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate-driven range dynamics ofLaurussince the Pliocene

(2008) Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

A working guide to boosted regression trees

(2008) J. Elith et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

Habitat suitability modelling and niche theory

(2008) Alexandre H. Hirzel et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

(2008) Ana Carolina Carnaval et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds

(2008) Brian Huntley et al.   PLoS One

Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

(2008) A. Townsend Peterson et al.   PLoS One

Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds

(2008) C. M. Beale et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century

(2008) J. Lenoir et al.   SCIENCE

Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics

(2008) R. K. Colwell et al.   SCIENCE

Niche dynamics in space and time

(2008) Peter B. Pearman et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Climate Change, Humans, and the Extinction of the Woolly Mammoth

(2008) David Nogués-Bravo et al.   PLOS BIOLOGY

Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges

(2007) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   PERSPECTIVES IN PLANT ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS