Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and Carbon Budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets

(2020) Chris D Jones et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

(2020) Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.   Science Advances

Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability

(2020) Katarzyna B Tokarska et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C

(2020) Nadine Mengis et al.   npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate

(2019) J. Lelieveld et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target

(2019) Dan Tong et al.   NATURE

Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

(2019) Joeri Rogelj et al.   NATURE

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

(2019) Joeri Rogelj et al.   NATURE

Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming

(2019) Diego Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta et al.   Nature Geoscience

Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

(2019) Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.   Nature Geoscience

Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation

(2019) Piers M. Forster et al.   Nature Climate Change

Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot

(2019) Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.   Earths Future

The impact of aerosol emissions on the 1.5 °C pathways

(2018) Anca Hienola et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

(2018) Peter Pfleiderer et al.   Environmental Research Letters

The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets

(2018) Katarzyna B Tokarska et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Negative emissions—Part 3: Innovation and upscaling

(2018) Gregory F Nemet et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects

(2018) Sabine Fuss et al.   Environmental Research Letters

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

(2018) Michael R. Grose et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks

(2018) Edward Comyn-Platt et al.   Nature Geoscience

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

(2018) Richard J. Millar et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

(2018) A. David McGuire et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming

(2018) Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.   Nature Climate Change

1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing

(2018) Nadine Mengis et al.   Scientific Reports

Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity

(2018) Timothy Andrews et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Estimating the Transient Climate Response from Observed Warming

(2018) Andrew Schurer et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release

(2018) T. Gasser et al.   Nature Geoscience

A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research

(2018) Daniel Huppmann et al.   Nature Climate Change

Getting It Right Matters: Temperature Goal Interpretations in Geoscience Research

(2017) Joeri Rogelj et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C

(2017) Richard J. Millar et al.   Nature Geoscience

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

(2017) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Communications

Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

(2017) Andrew P. Schurer et al.   Nature Climate Change

A real-time Global Warming Index

(2017) K. Haustein et al.   Scientific Reports

Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

(2016) C T Simmons et al.   Environmental Research Letters

On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2emissions during periods of net negative CO2emissions

(2016) Kirsten Zickfeld et al.   Environmental Research Letters

National contributions for decarbonizing the world economy in line with the G7 agreement

(2016) Yann Robiou du Pont et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

(2016) C D Jones et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

(2016) Martin Leduc et al.   Nature Climate Change

Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

(2016) Mark Richardson et al.   Nature Climate Change

The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon

(2016) Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.   Nature Climate Change

Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

(2016) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Climate Change

Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal

(2016) Carl-Friedrich Schleussner et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate justice in a carbon budget

(2015) Catriona McKinnon   CLIMATIC CHANGE

The legacy of our CO2 emissions: a clash of scientific facts, politics and ethics

(2015) Reto Knutti et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

(2015) Thomas L Frölicher et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings

(2015) Andrew H MacDougall et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals

(2015) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Allocating a 2 °C cumulative carbon budget to countries

(2015) Renaud Gignac et al.   Environmental Research Letters

The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change

(2015) Katarzyna B Tokarska et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

(2015) Kevin Cowtan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Quantifying the Limits of a Linear Temperature Response to Cumulative CO2Emissions

(2015) Martin Leduc et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics

(2015) Charles D. Koven et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership

(2015) Malte Meinshausen et al.   Nature Climate Change

Long-term response of oceans to CO2 removal from the atmosphere

(2015) Sabine Mathesius et al.   Nature Climate Change

Quantifying historical carbon and climate debts among nations

(2015) H. Damon Matthews   Nature Climate Change

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

(2015) Pete Smith et al.   Nature Climate Change

Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways

(2014) Joeri Rogelj et al.   Nature Climate Change

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

(2014) Michael R. Raupach et al.   Nature Climate Change

Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations*

(2013) Nathan P. Gillett et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

(2013) Piers M. Forster et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations: A new methodology and 21st century challenges

(2013) Sanjiv Kumar et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Is the climate response to CO2emissions path dependent?

(2012) K. Zickfeld et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks

(2012) Kyle C. Armour et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations

(2011) J. Samson et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

(2010) Thomas L. Frölicher et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment

(2010) Long Cao et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change

(2009) Michael Winton et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

(2009) H. Damon Matthews et al.   NATURE

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

(2009) Myles R. Allen et al.   NATURE

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C

(2009) Malte Meinshausen et al.   NATURE

Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change

(2009) K. Zickfeld et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions

(2008) H. Damon Matthews et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS