Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

The DOE E3SM coupled model version 1: Overview and evaluation at standard resolution

(2019) Jean‐Christophe Golaz et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

(2019) Jules B. Kajtar et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A limited role for unforced internal variability in 20th century warming.

(2019) Karsten Haustein et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Improvements in the uncertainty model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) analysis

(2019) Nathan J. L. Lenssen et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

An Ensemble Data Set of Sea Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The Met Office Hadley Centre HadSST.4.0.0.0 Data Set

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How are emergent constraints quantifying uncertainty and what do they leave behind?

(2019) Daniel B. Williamson et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming

(2019) Diego Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta et al.   Nature Geoscience

Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

(2019) Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.   Nature Geoscience

Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model

(2019) I. M. Held et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation

(2019) Piers M. Forster et al.   Nature Climate Change

UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model

(2019) Alistair A. Sellar et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

(2018) Peter M. Caldwell et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

(2018) Benjamin D. Santer et al.   SCIENCE

Estimating the Transient Climate Response from Observed Warming

(2018) Andrew Schurer et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

(2018) Peter M. Cox et al.   NATURE

The impact of global warming on sea surface temperature based El Niño-Southern Oscillation monitoring indices

(2018) Thea Turkington et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons

(2017) Boyin Huang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

(2017) Ronald Gelaro et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

(2017) Iselin Medhaug et al.   NATURE

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

(2017) Reto Knutti et al.   Nature Geoscience

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

(2017) Patrick T. Brown et al.   Nature Climate Change

Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks

(2017) Kyle C. Armour   Nature Climate Change

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

(2016) M. Etminan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

(2015) Kevin Cowtan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics

(2015) Shinya KOBAYASHI et al.   JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN

The $10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response

(2015) Chris Hope   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models

(2015) Reto Knutti et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus

(2015) Matthew H. England et al.   Nature Climate Change

On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO

(2014) Michael E. Mann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

(2014) Markus Huber et al.   Nature Geoscience

Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there

(2013) Reto Knutti et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Centennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty

(2013) Shoji Hirahara et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

(2013) Yu Kosaka et al.   NATURE

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends

(2013) Kevin Cowtan et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

(2013) Piers M. Forster et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

(2011) Malte Meinshausen et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Global temperature evolution 1979–2010

(2011) Grant Foster et al.   Environmental Research Letters

The end of model democracy?

(2010) Reto Knutti   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Use and misuse of the reduced major axis for line-fitting

(2009) Richard J. Smith   AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

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