North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Assessing the Impact of Initialization on Decadal Prediction Skill

(2020) Reinel Sospedra‐Alfonso et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

(2020) Panos J. Athanasiadis et al.   npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling

(2019) Masato Mori et al.   Nature Climate Change

Modulation of Economic Losses From European Floods by the North Atlantic Oscillation

(2019) Stefano Zanardo et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

(2019) Adam A. Scaife et al.   Atmospheric Science Letters

Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection

(2019) Isla R. Simpson et al.   Nature Geoscience

Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25 km-resolution global atmospheric model

(2019) Alexander J. Baker et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Understanding the Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model

(2019) Wei Zhang et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

(2019) Leonard F. Borchert et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Realistic Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing

(2019) Holger Pohlmann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Predicting near-term changes in the Earth System: A large ensemble of initialized decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model

(2018) S. G. Yeager et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Improved Teleconnection-Based Dynamical Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter

(2018) Mikhail Dobrynin et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

(2018) Nick Dunstone et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multi-model seasonal forecasts

(2018) L. H. Baker et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low-Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?

(2018) Thomas J. Bracegirdle et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Atmospheric Dynamics is the Largest Source of Uncertainty in Future Winter European Rainfall

(2018) David Fereday et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations

(2018) K. D. Williams et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox

(2018) Christopher H. O'Reilly et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Signal and noise in regime systems: A hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

(2018) Kristian Strommen et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

(2018) Antje Weisheimer et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Quantifying the irreducible uncertainty in near‐term climate projections

(2018) Jochem Marotzke   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

(2017) Sergey Kravtsov   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Comparison of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations

(2017) Anson H. Cheung et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment

(2017) Giuseppe Zappa et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Optimising assimilation of hydrographic profiles into isopycnal ocean models with ensemble data assimilation

(2017) Yiguo Wang et al.   OCEAN MODELLING

NAO and its relationship with the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations

(2017) Xiaofan Wang et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections

(2016) Clara Deser et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A Bayesian Framework for Verification and Recalibration of Ensemble Forecasts: How Uncertain is NAO Predictability?

(2016) Stefan Siegert et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

(2016) Nick Dunstone et al.   Nature Geoscience

Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

(2016) François Counillon et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

(2015) Ed Hawkins et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations

(2015) Gerard D. McCarthy et al.   NATURE

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

(2015) T. R. Karl et al.   SCIENCE

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation

(2015) A. Clement et al.   SCIENCE

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

(2014) A. A. Scaife et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

(2014) Rosie Eade et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

(2014) Theodore G. Shepherd   Nature Geoscience

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

(2013) Doug M. Smith et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Methodological aspects of the validation of decadal predictions

(2013) R Gangstø et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle

(2013) Udo Schneider et al.   THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC

(2012) Yoshimitsu Chikamoto et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

(2012) L. Goddard et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The impact of model fidelity on seasonal predictive skill

(2012) V. V. Kharin et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A Predictable AMO-Like Pattern in the GFDL Fully Coupled Ensemble Initialization and Decadal Forecasting System

(2012) Xiaosong Yang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Decadal Prediction Using a Recent Series of MIROC Global Climate Models

(2012) Takashi MOCHIZUKI et al.   JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN

Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections

(2012) Reto Knutti et al.   Nature Climate Change

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends

(2010) Sang-Ik Shin et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

(2010) Ed Hawkins et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Dynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future

(2010) T. Woollings   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE

(2010) J. Hansen et al.   REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS

The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions

(2009) Ed Hawkins et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts

(2009) F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Exploring multi-model atmospheric GCM ensembles with ANOVA

(2008) D. L. R. Hodson et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events

(2008) A. A. Scaife et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS