Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM 1.2) and its response to increasing CO2

(2019) Thorsten Mauritsen et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature

(2019) Bo Wu et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability

(2019) Nicola Maher et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Forecast‐Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST

(2019) Leonard F. Borchert et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Realistic Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing

(2019) Holger Pohlmann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five-Layer Soil-Hydrology Scheme

(2018) Felix Bunzel et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region

(2018) Leonard F. Borchert et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Higher-resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR)

(2018) W. A. Müller et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

(2017) K. L. Sheen et al.   Nature Communications

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

(2017) Marius Årthun et al.   Nature Communications

Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating

(2016) Rohit Ghosh et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave

(2016) Aurélie Duchez et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration

(2016) Felix Bunzel et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets

(2016) A. J. Simmons et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ N

(2015) A. Duchez et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Influence of the North Atlantic SST Variability on the Atmospheric Circulation during the Twentieth Century

(2015) Guillaume Gastineau et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

(2015) David A. MacLeod et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices

(2014) H. M. Hanlon et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

(2013) H. Pohlmann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales

(2013) Sergey K. Gulev et al.   NATURE

Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4

(2013) Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

(2012) W. A. Müller et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

(2012) J. I. Robson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Two Tales of Initializing Decadal Climate Prediction Experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model

(2012) Daniela Matei et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content

(2012) Stephen Yeager et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Can a Decadal Forecasting System Predict Temperature Extreme Indices?*

(2012) Helen M. Hanlon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead

(2012) Rosie Eade et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean

(2011) N. J. Dunstone et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe

(2011) Antje Weisheimer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

(2011) D. P. Dee et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY