Understanding the Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

(2019) Adam A. Scaife et al.   Atmospheric Science Letters

An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multi-model seasonal forecasts

(2018) L. H. Baker et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere

(2018) Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox

(2018) Christopher H. O'Reilly et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Signal and noise in regime systems: A hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

(2018) Kristian Strommen et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Diagnosis of Decadal Predictability of Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in the GFDL CM2.1 Model

(2017) Liping Zhang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions

(2017) Panos J. Athanasiadis et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution

(2017) Antje Weisheimer et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

NAO and its relationship with the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations

(2017) Xiaofan Wang et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate

(2017) L. Wang et al.   Scientific Reports

Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes

(2017) Davide Faranda et al.   Scientific Reports

ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century

(2016) Paul Poli et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Bayesian Framework for Verification and Recalibration of Ensemble Forecasts: How Uncertain is NAO Predictability?

(2016) Stefan Siegert et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

(2016) Nick Dunstone et al.   Nature Geoscience

Estimating the limit of decadal-scale climate predictability using observational data

(2015) Ruiqiang Ding et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Atmospheric initial conditions and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation

(2015) Timothy N. Stockdale et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

(2014) A. A. Scaife et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

(2014) Rosie Eade et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Is There a Relationship between Potential and Actual Skill?

(2014) Arun Kumar et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system

(2014) C. MacLachlan et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

(2014) Lucie Pokorná et al.   THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

NOAA's Second-Generation Global Medium-Range Ensemble Reforecast Dataset

(2013) Thomas M. Hamill et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction

(2013) Ben P. Kirtman et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

(2013) Emily E. Riddle et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Decadal predictability and forecast skill

(2013) G. J. Boer et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

PNA Predictability at Various Time Scales

(2013) Waqar Younas et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Systematic Estimates of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability for Six AOGCMs

(2011) Grant Branstator et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

(2011) J. Slingo et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

(2011) G. P. Compo et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

(2009) James W. Hurrell et al.   JOURNAL OF MARINE SYSTEMS

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Multi-model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature

(2008) G. J. Boer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS