Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

(2014) Jon Robson et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

(2014) S. Tietsche et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

(2014) A. A. Scaife et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Predictions of Climate Several Years Ahead Using an Improved Decadal Prediction System

(2014) Jeff R. Knight et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Is There a Relationship between Potential and Actual Skill?

(2014) Arun Kumar et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system

(2014) C. MacLachlan et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

(2013) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

(2013) Emily E. Riddle et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system

(2013) Holger Pohlmann et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Decadal predictability and forecast skill

(2013) G. J. Boer et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

(2013) Doug M. Smith et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Methodological aspects of the validation of decadal predictions

(2013) R Gangstø et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion

(2013) Chun Kit Ho et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability

(2013) Adam A. Scaife et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

PNA Predictability at Various Time Scales

(2013) Waqar Younas et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Influence of the AMOC Variability on the Atmosphere in CCSM3

(2013) Claude Frankignoul et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*

(2013) Clara Deser et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events

(2013) R. M. Williams et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects

(2013) Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales

(2012) Guillaume Gastineau et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

(2012) L. Goddard et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?

(2012) Doug M Smith et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Reliability of decadal predictions

(2012) S. Corti et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

(2012) J. I. Robson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content

(2012) Stephen Yeager et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead

(2012) Rosie Eade et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

(2012) T. Woollings et al.   Nature Geoscience

Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

(2012) Rowan T. Sutton et al.   Nature Geoscience

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

(2011) Antje Weisheimer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean

(2011) N. J. Dunstone et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Systematic Estimates of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability for Six AOGCMs

(2011) Grant Branstator et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Forecasting the number of extreme daily events on seasonal timescales

(2011) Emily Hamilton et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate

(2010) George J. Boer   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

(2010) Ed Hawkins et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Impact of atmosphere and sub-surface ocean data on decadal climate prediction

(2010) N. J. Dunstone et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency

(2010) Doug M. Smith et al.   Nature Geoscience

The Effect of Ocean Dynamics and Orography on Atmospheric Storm Tracks

(2009) Chris Wilson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Finite Samples and Uncertainty Estimates for Skill Measures for Seasonal Prediction

(2009) Arun Kumar   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

(2008) Bin Wang et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere

(2008) Shoshiro Minobe et al.   NATURE