Early warning signals, nonlinearity, and signs of hysteresis in real ecosystems

Characterizing driver-response relationships in marine pelagic ecosystems for improved ocean management

(2016) Mary E. Hunsicker et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Cusps and butterflies: multiple stable states in marine systems as catastrophes

(2016) P. S. Petraitis et al.   MARINE AND FRESHWATER RESEARCH

Local Facilitation May Cause Tipping Points on a Landscape Level Preceded by Early-Warning Indicators

(2015) Chi Xu et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Factors Influencing the Detectability of Early Warning Signals of Population Collapse

(2015) Christopher F. Clements et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition

(2015) Marten Scheffer et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

Evidencing a regime shift in the North Sea using early-warning signals as indicators of critical transitions

(2015) N. Wouters et al.   ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE

With and without warning: managing ecosystems in a changing world

(2015) Michael L Pace et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Do early warning indicators consistently predict nonlinear change in long-term ecological data?

(2015) Sarah J. Burthe et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Hysteresis in an experimental phytoplankton population

(2015) Elisabeth J. Faassen et al.   OIKOS

Rising relative fluctuation as a warning indicator of discontinuous transitions in symbiotic metapopulations

(2015) Neeme Lumi et al.   PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems

(2015) Kiran D’Souza et al.   PLoS One

Nonlinearity and chaos in ecological dynamics revisited

(2015) Ottar N. Bjørnstad   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change

(2015) Chris A. Boulton et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

(2015) Lei Dai et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Regime shifts between free-floating plants and phytoplankton: a review

(2014) Paula de Tezanos Pinto et al.   HYDROBIOLOGIA

Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

(2014) V. Dakos et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

(2014) Sonia Kéfi et al.   PLoS One

Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

(2014) Trisha L. Spanbauer et al.   PLoS One

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities

(2014) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

(2014) M. Krko ek et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Early warnings of regime shifts: evaluation of spatial indicators from a whole-ecosystem experiment

(2014) Timothy J. Cline et al.   Ecosphere

Warning Signals of Regime Shifts as Intrinsic Properties of Endogenous Dynamics

(2013) Tak Fung et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Rising catch variability preceded historical fisheries collapses in Alaska

(2013) Michael A. Litzow et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Complex dynamics may limit prediction in marine fisheries

(2013) Sarah M Glaser et al.   FISH AND FISHERIES

Zooplankton provide early warnings of a regime shift in a whole lake manipulation

(2013) Michael L. Pace et al.   LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

(2013) Lei Dai et al.   NATURE

Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur without Early Warning: Examples of Silent Catastrophes in Structured Ecological Models

(2013) Maarten C. Boerlijst et al.   PLoS One

A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

(2013) E. Di Lorenzo et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine

(2013) E. R. Deyle et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Precursors of state transitions in stochastic systems with delay

(2013) Paolo D’Odorico et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

(2013) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

(2013) Carl Boettiger et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Tipping Points in the Arctic: Eyeballing or Statistical Significance?

(2012) Jacob Carstensen et al.   AMBIO

Conditional Heteroskedasticity Forecasts Regime Shift in a Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2012) David A. Seekell et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state

(2012) Rong Wang et al.   NATURE

Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

(2012) Sonia Kéfi et al.   OIKOS

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

(2012) Martin Lindegren et al.   PLoS One

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

(2012) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PLoS One

Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

(2012) L. Dai et al.   SCIENCE

Conditional Heteroscedasticity as a Leading Indicator of Ecological Regime Shifts

(2011) David A. Seekell et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Slowing Down in Spatially Patterned Ecosystems at the Brink of Collapse

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   ECOLOGY

Transient dynamics of an altered large marine ecosystem

(2011) Kenneth T. Frank et al.   NATURE

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   SCIENCE

Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

(2011) Brandon T. Bestelmeyer et al.   Ecosphere

Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings

(2010) W. A. Brock et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning

(2010) Alan Hastings et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking

(2010) Peter D. Ditlevsen et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Empirical evidence of an approaching alternate state produced by intrinsic community dynamics, climatic variability and management actions

(2010) JE Hewitt et al.   MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES

Phase shifts and stable states on coral reefs

(2010) SR Dudgeon et al.   MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES

Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

(2010) John M. Drake et al.   NATURE

Identifying Thresholds for Ecosystem-Based Management

(2010) Jameal F. Samhouri et al.   PLoS One

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

EXPERIMENTAL FLOODS CAUSE ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFT IN A REGULATED RIVER

(2008) Christopher T. Robinson et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

INCREASED SPATIAL VARIANCE ACCOMPANIES REORGANIZATION OF TWO CONTINENTAL SHELF ECOSYSTEMS

(2008) Michael A. Litzow et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

SEA ICE RETREAT ALTERS THE BIOGEOGRAPHY OF THE BERING SEA CONTINENTAL SHELF

(2008) Franz J. Mueter et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems

(2008) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Disturbance-driven changes in the variability of ecological patterns and processes

(2008) Jennifer M. Fraterrigo et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Alternative states on coral reefs: beyond coral–macroalgal phase shifts

(2008) AV Norström et al.   MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Coral reef management and conservation in light of rapidly evolving ecological paradigms

(2008) P MUMBY et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

(2008) Tom Andersen et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Extending Nonlinear Analysis to Short Ecological Time Series

(2007) Chih‐hao Hsieh et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST