Assessing the reliability of species distribution projections in climate change research

iEcology: Harnessing Large Online Resources to Generate Ecological Insights

(2020) Ivan Jarić et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models

(2020) Damaris Zurell et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments

(2019) Miguel B. Araújo et al.   Science Advances

Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios

(2019) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   Nature Communications

ΔTraitSDMs: species distribution models that account for local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity

(2019) Marta Benito Garzón et al.   NEW PHYTOLOGIST

Identifying conservation priorities for plant species in the Himalaya in current and future climates: A case study from Sikkim Himalaya, India

(2019) Kumar Manish et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels

(2019) Anna Norberg et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

(2019) Orly Razgour et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Testing methods in species distribution modelling using virtual species: what have we learnt and what are we missing?

(2019) Christine N. Meynard et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Bunching up the background betters bias in species distribution models

(2019) Julien Vollering et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Evaluating presence‐only species distribution models with discrimination accuracy is uninformative for many applications

(2019) Dan L. Warren et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Correlative climatic niche models predict real and virtual species distributions equally well

(2019) Valentin Journé et al.   ECOLOGY

Major challenges for correlational ecological niche model projections to future climate conditions

(2018) A. Townsend Peterson et al.   Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

The effect of sample size on the accuracy of species distribution models: considering both presences and pseudo-absences or background sites

(2018) Canran Liu et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

(2018) Helen R. Sofaer et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Without quality presence-absence data, discrimination metrics such as TSS can be misleading measures of model performance

(2018) Boris Leroy et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios

(2018) Tim Newbold   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C

(2018) R. Warren et al.   SCIENCE

Optimizing ensembles of small models for predicting the distribution of species with few occurrences

(2018) Frank T. Breiner et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Transferring biodiversity models for conservation: Opportunities and challenges

(2018) Ana M. M. Sequeira et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

(2018) Søren Faurby et al.   Nature Climate Change

Habitat suitability estimated by niche models is largely unrelated to species abundance

(2018) Tad A. Dallas et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Effects of simulated observation errors on the performance of species distribution models

(2018) Rui F. Fernandes et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Creating individual accessible area hypotheses improves stacked species distribution model performance

(2017) Jacob C. Cooper et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Paintings predict the distribution of species, or the challenge of selecting environmental predictors and evaluation statistics

(2017) Yoan Fourcade et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

ranger: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in C++ and R

(2017) Marvin N. Wright et al.   Journal of Statistical Software

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas

(2017) Dirk Nikolaus Karger et al.   Scientific Data

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate

(2017) Colin J. Carlson et al.   Science Advances

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

(2017) Lilian Patrícia Sales et al.   PLoS One

Assessing the effectiveness of China's protected areas to conserve current and future amphibian diversity

(2016) Youhua Chen et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Performance tradeoffs in target-group bias correction for species distribution models

(2016) Nathan Ranc et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Multidimensional biases, gaps and uncertainties in global plant occurrence information

(2016) Carsten Meyer et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Evaluating 318 continental-scale species distribution models over a 60-year prediction horizon: what factors influence the reliability of predictions?

(2016) Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation

(2016) Oscar Venter et al.   Nature Communications

Historic and prehistoric human-driven extinctions have reshaped global mammal diversity patterns

(2015) S. Faurby et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Contemporary niche contraction affects climate change predictions for elephants and giraffes

(2015) Fernando Martínez-Freiría et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

virtualspecies, an R package to generate virtual species distributions

(2015) Boris Leroy et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models

(2015) André S. J. van Proosdij et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Climatic tolerance or geographic breadth: what are we measuring?

(2015) Moreno Di Marco et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Human pressures predict species’ geographic range size better than biological traits

(2015) Moreno Di Marco et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications

(2015) Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

(2015) Piero Visconti et al.   Conservation Letters

Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change

(2015) Verónica del Rosario Avalos et al.   Global Ecology and Conservation

Diversification, Evolution and Sub-Functionalization of 70kDa Heat-Shock Proteins in Two Sister Species of Antarctic Krill: Differences in Thermal Habitats, Responses and Implications under Climate Change

(2015) Kévin Cascella et al.   PLoS One

Evaluating, partitioning, and mapping the spatial autocorrelation component in ecological niche modeling: a new approach based on environmentally equidistant records

(2014) Guilherme de Oliveira et al.   ECOGRAPHY

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

(2014) Cory Merow et al.   ECOGRAPHY

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

(2014) Fernando Valladares et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Niche-habitat mechanisms and biotic interactions explain the coexistence and abundance of congeneric sandgrouse species

(2014) Ana Benítez-López et al.   OECOLOGIA

Predicting species distribution at range margins: testing the effects of study area extent, resolution and threshold selection in the Sahara-Sahel transition zone

(2013) Cândida G. Vale et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter

(2013) Cory Merow et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas

(2013) Hannah L. Owens et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data

(2013) Canran Liu et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Model-Based Control of Observer Bias for the Analysis of Presence-Only Data in Ecology

(2013) David I. Warton et al.   PLoS One

Prevalence, thresholds and the performance of presence-absence models

(2013) Callum R. Lawson et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss

(2013) R. Warren et al.   Nature Climate Change

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

(2012) L. Maiorano et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Testing the predictive performance of distribution models

(2012) Volker Bahn et al.   OIKOS

Climatic Associations of British Species Distributions Show Good Transferability in Time but Low Predictive Accuracy for Range Change

(2012) Giovanni Rapacciuolo et al.   PLoS One

Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere

(2012) C. A. Schloss et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many?

(2012) Morgane Barbet-Massin et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Presence-only modelling using MAXENT: when can we trust the inferences?

(2012) Charles B. Yackulic et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Assessing transferability of ecological models: an underappreciated aspect of statistical validation

(2012) Seth J. Wenger et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves

(2011) Xavier Robin et al.   BMC BIOINFORMATICS

The effects of small sample size and sample bias on threshold selection and accuracy assessment of species distribution models

(2011) William T. Bean et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability?

(2011) Risto K. Heikkinen et al.   ECOGRAPHY

The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling

(2011) Narayani Barve et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change

(2011) Nicholas W. Synes et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

(2011) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   NATURE

Climate change and evolutionary adaptation

(2011) Ary A. Hoffmann et al.   NATURE

Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

(2011) Jens-Christian Svenning et al.   QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

Within-taxon niche structure: niche conservatism, divergence and predicted effects of climate change

(2010) Peter B. Pearman et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Improving species distribution models for climate change studies: variable selection and scale

(2010) Mike P. Austin et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

The effect of the extent of the study region on GIS models of species geographic distributions and estimates of niche evolution: preliminary tests with montane rodents (genus Nephelomys) in Venezuela

(2010) Robert P. Anderson et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers

(2010) Damaris Zurell et al.   OIKOS

The art of modelling range-shifting species

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance

(2009) Jeremy VanDerWal et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

(2009) David Nogués-Bravo   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Is current climatic equilibrium a guarantee for the transferability of distribution model predictions? A case study of the spotted hyena

(2009) Sara Varela et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Spatially autocorrelated sampling falsely inflates measures of accuracy for presence-only niche models

(2009) Samuel D. Veloz   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems

(2009) Alain F. Zuur et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species

(2008) Paul H. Evangelista et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

(2008) M. S. Wisz et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation

(2008) Steven J. Phillips et al.   ECOGRAPHY