Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study

(2020) Marius Gilbert et al.   LANCET

An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time

(2020) Ensheng Dong et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

(2020) Qun Li et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis

(2020) Freya M. Shearer et al.   PLOS MEDICINE

Novel Coronavirus Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: Intense Surveillance Is Vital for Preventing Sustained Transmission in New Locations

(2020) Robin N. Thompson   Journal of Clinical Medicine

Epidemiological models are important tools for guiding COVID-19 interventions

(2020) Robin N. Thompson   BMC Medicine

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

(2020) Tapiwa Ganyani et al.   Eurosurveillance

Interpreting Diagnostic Tests for SARS-CoV-2

(2020) Nandini Sethuraman et al.   JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

What policy makers need to know about COVID-19 protective immunity

(2020) Daniel M Altmann et al.   LANCET

Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: an analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries

(2020) Nirmal Kandel et al.   LANCET

First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment

(2020) Kathy Leung et al.   LANCET

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

(2020) Roy M Anderson et al.   LANCET

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

(2020) Fei Zhou et al.   LANCET

SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Travelers Returning from Wuhan, China

(2020) Oon-Tek Ng et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

(2020) Luca Ferretti et al.   SCIENCE

How Sweden wasted a ‘rare opportunity’ to study coronavirus in schools

(2020) Gretchen Vogel   SCIENCE

Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management

(2020) Katriona Shea et al.   SCIENCE

Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions

(2020) Jonas Dehning et al.   SCIENCE

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

(2020) Stephen M. Kissler et al.   SCIENCE

The probability of detection of SARS-CoV-2 in saliva

(2020) RN Thompson et al.   STATISTICAL METHODS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH

Adaptive estimation for epidemic renewal and phylogenetic skyline models

(2020) Kris V Parag et al.   SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY

Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges

(2020) Amani Alahmadi et al.   Epidemics

Mobile phone data for informing public health actions across the COVID-19 pandemic life cycle

(2020) Nuria Oliver et al.   Science Advances

Time from Symptom Onset to Hospitalisation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases: Implications for the Proportion of Transmissions from Infectors with Few Symptoms

(2020) Robin N. Thompson et al.   Journal of Clinical Medicine

Species distribution models are inappropriate for COVID-19

(2020) Colin J. Carlson et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study

(2020) Benjamin J Cowling et al.   Lancet Public Health

The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

(2020) Kiesha Prem et al.   Lancet Public Health

Estimating COVID-19 outbreak risk through air travel

(2020) Yair Daon et al.   JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in COVID-19 hotspots

(2020) Isabella Eckerle et al.   LANCET

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

(2020) Robert Verity et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

(2020) Nicholas G. Davies et al.   NATURE MEDICINE

Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China

(2020) Jiangtao Liu et al.   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis

(2020) Hongchao Qi et al.   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey

(2020) Mehmet Şahin   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia

(2020) Ramadhan Tosepu et al.   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation

(2020) Kris V. Parag et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling study

(2020) Alexandra Teslya et al.   PLOS MEDICINE

Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study

(2020) Mirjam E Kretzschmar et al.   Lancet Public Health

How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach

(2020) Thomas Rawson et al.   Frontiers in Public Health

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

(2020) Russell M Viner et al.   Lancet Child & Adolescent Health

A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate

(2020) Gianpaolo Coro   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Temperature and precipitation associate with Covid-19 new daily cases: A correlation study between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Oslo, Norway

(2020) Mesay Moges Menebo   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic

(2019) Hyojung Lee et al.   JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

The Ongoing Ebola Epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2018–2019

(2019) Oly Ilunga Kalenga et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Rigorous surveillance is necessary for high confidence in end-of-outbreak declarations for Ebola and other infectious diseases

(2019) Robin N. Thompson et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks

(2019) R.N. Thompson et al.   Epidemics

Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

(2019) Nicholas G. Reich et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination

(2018) Amy K Winter et al.   JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

(2018) Graham Brightwell et al.   JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY

Modeling the Growth and Decline of Pathogen Effective Population Size Provides Insight into Epidemic Dynamics and Drivers of Antimicrobial Resistance

(2018) Erik M Volz et al.   SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY

Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic – The model behind the documentary

(2018) Petra Klepac et al.   Epidemics

Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

(2018) Robin N. Thompson et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemic parameter estimates and predictions using stochastic compartmental models

(2018) Christoph Zimmer et al.   STATISTICAL METHODS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH

Intervention to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out

(2017) P.G. Ballard et al.   MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES

Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies

(2017) Andrew J. Black et al.   Epidemics

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data

(2017) Kiesha Prem et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Introducing The Lancet Global Health Commission on High-Quality Health Systems in the SDG Era

(2017) Margaret E Kruk et al.   Lancet Global Health

Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries

(2016) Robin N. Thompson et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease

(2016) C Jessica E Metcalf et al.   LANCET

Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures II: Comparisons and implications for vaccination

(2016) Frank Ball et al.   MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES

Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

(2016) Robin N. Thompson et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial

(2015) Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo et al.   LANCET

Epidemic processes in complex networks

(2015) Romualdo Pastor-Satorras et al.   REVIEWS OF MODERN PHYSICS

Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources

(2015) Daniela De Angelis et al.   Epidemics

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models

(2015) Steven Riley et al.   Epidemics

Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks

(2015) Marc Lipsitch et al.   PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Epidemics on random intersection graphs

(2014) Frank G. Ball et al.   ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY

A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics

(2013) Anne Cori et al.   AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research

(2013) James W. Hurrell et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Estimating the Probability of a Major Outbreak from the Timing of Early Cases: An Indeterminate Problem?

(2013) Meggan E. Craft et al.   PLoS One

Social encounter networks: characterizing Great Britain

(2013) L. Danon et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

The INDEPTH Network: filling vital gaps in global epidemiology

(2012) Osman Sankoh et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission

(2012) L. Danon et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Birth-death skyline plot reveals temporal changes of epidemic spread in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV)

(2012) T. Stadler et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A novel field-based approach to validate the use of network models for disease spread between dairy herds

(2011) L. GARCÍA ÁLVAREZ et al.   EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION

Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands

(2011) Tjibbe Donker et al.   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data

(2011) K. Glass et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Reproduction numbers for epidemic models with households and other social structures. I. Definition and calculation of R0

(2011) Lorenzo Pellis et al.   MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES

Contact intervals, survival analysis of epidemic data, and estimation of R0

(2010) Eben Kenah   BIOSTATISTICS

Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data

(2009) N. HENS et al.   EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION

Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic

(2009) Simon Cauchemez et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households

(2009) E. Goldstein et al.   MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

(2009) Frank Ball et al.   MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES

Reconstructing influenza incidence by deconvolution of daily mortality time series

(2009) E. Goldstein et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Epidemics on Random Graphs with Tunable Clustering

(2008) Tom Britton et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED PROBABILITY

Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

(2008) Simon Cauchemez et al.   NATURE