The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Observed 21st century temperatures further constrain likely rates of future warming

(2012) Peter A. Stott et al.   Atmospheric Science Letters

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

(2012) Peter Good et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Asymmetries in tropical rainfall and circulation patterns in idealised CO2 removal experiments

(2012) Robin Chadwick et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

(2012) N. Chalmers et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

(2011) Detlef P. van Vuuren et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

A step-response simple climate model to reconstruct and interpret AOGCM projections

(2011) Peter Good et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations

(2011) N. P. Gillett et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance

(2011) Markus Huber et al.   Nature Geoscience

The end of model democracy?

(2010) Reto Knutti   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming

(2010) Peter A. Stott et al.   TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY

Performance metrics for climate models

(2008) P. J. Gleckler et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH