How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Do rising temperatures always increase forest productivity? Interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and soil texture on tree species growth and competition

(2017) Eric J. Gustafson et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

(2017) Fabian Sittaro et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Species’ traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta-analysis

(2017) Sarah A. MacLean et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The implications of American chestnut reintroduction on landscape dynamics and carbon storage

(2017) Eric J. Gustafson et al.   Ecosphere

Climatic microrefugia under anthropogenic climate change: implications for species redistribution

(2016) Jonathan Lenoir et al.   ECOGRAPHY

A LANDIS-II extension for incorporating land use and other disturbances

(2016) Jonathan R. Thompson et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

The impacts of climate change and disturbance on spatio-temporal trajectories of biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape

(2016) Dominik Thom et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests

(2016) Matthew J. Duveneck et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

The formulations of site-scale processes affect landscape-scale forest change predictions: a comparison between LANDIS PRO and LANDIS-II forest landscape models

(2016) Jiangtao Xiao et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

(2016) Romain Bertrand et al.   Nature Communications

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

(2016) Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.   Nature Communications

Implications of mechanistic modeling of drought effects on growth and competition in forest landscape models

(2016) Eric J. Gustafson et al.   Ecosphere

Latitudinal range shifts of tree species in the United States across multi-decadal time scales

(2015) Brice B. Hanberry et al.   BASIC AND APPLIED ECOLOGY

Distribution shifts of freshwater fish under a variable climate: comparing climatic, bioclimatic and biotic velocities

(2015) Lise Comte et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

(2015) Johan Ehrlén et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

An imputed forest composition map for New England screened by species range boundaries

(2015) Matthew J. Duveneck et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change

(2015) Josep M. Serra-Diaz et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in western US tree species

(2015) Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change

(2015) Josep M. Serra-Diaz et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions

(2015) Tom H. Oliver et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Evidence of Tree Species’ Range Shifts in a Complex Landscape

(2015) Vicente J. Monleon et al.   PLoS One

Simulating the Interacting Effects of Intraspecific Variation, Disturbance, and Competition on Climate-Driven Range Shifts in Trees

(2015) Emily V. Moran et al.   PLoS One

Anticipating the spatio-temporal response of plant diversity and vegetation structure to climate and land use change in a protected area

(2014) Isabelle Boulangeat et al.   ECOGRAPHY

The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

(2014) Jens-Christian Svenning et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: Embedding PnET within LANDIS-II

(2014) Arjan de Bruijn et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

(2014) Eric J. Gustafson et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Temporal context affects the observed rate of climate-driven range shifts in tree species

(2014) Katherine M. Renwick et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology

(2014) Trevor F. Keenan et al.   Nature Climate Change

Bioclimatic velocity: the pace of species exposure to climate change

(2013) Josep M. Serra-Diaz et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

How do disturbances and environmental heterogeneity affect the pace of forest distribution shifts under climate change?

(2013) Mark C. Vanderwel et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

(2013) C.W. Woodall et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Quantifying variation in forest disturbance, and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics, across the eastern United States

(2013) Mark C. Vanderwel et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Climate-related variation in mortality and recruitment determine regional forest-type distributions

(2013) Mark C. Vanderwel et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting

(2013) Louis R. Iverson et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

(2013) Eric J. Gustafson   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Where am I and why? Synthesizing range biology and the eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal

(2013) Alexander Kubisch et al.   OIKOS

Tree Migration-Rates: Narrowing the Gap between Inferred Post-Glacial Rates and Projected Rates

(2013) Angelica Feurdean et al.   PLoS One

Four Centuries of Change in Northeastern United States Forests

(2013) Jonathan R. Thompson et al.   PLoS One

Will plant movements keep up with climate change?

(2013) Richard T. Corlett et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Climate Change, Aboveground-Belowground Interactions, and Species' Range Shifts

(2012) Wim H. Van der Putten   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

Survivors, not invaders, control forest development following simulated hurricane

(2012) Audrey Barker Plotkin et al.   ECOLOGY

Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of species distributions and their abundances

(2012) Isabelle Boulangeat et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

A nearest-neighbor imputation approach to mapping tree species over large areas using forest inventory plots and moderate resolution raster data

(2012) B. Tyler Wilson et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Trees are rarely most abundant where they grow best

(2012) B. J. McGill   Journal of Plant Ecology

Importance of colonization and competition in forest landscape response to global climatic change

(2011) Chonggang Xu et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

(2011) Keywan Riahi et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA

(2011) Jonathan R. Thompson et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Do species’ traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges?

(2011) Amy L. Angert et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

(2011) Kai Zhu et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests

(2011) Romain Bertrand et al.   NATURE

Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

(2011) I.-C. Chen et al.   SCIENCE

Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography

(2010) Janet Franklin   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Signatures of range expansion and erosion in eastern North American trees

(2010) Helen T. Murphy et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

The interacting effects of temperature, ground disturbance, and herbivory on seedling establishment: implications for treeline advance with climate warming

(2010) Anne Munier et al.   PLANT ECOLOGY

Abundance and the Environmental Niche: Environmental Suitability Estimated from Niche Models Predicts the Upper Limit of Local Abundance

(2009) Jeremy VanDerWal et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Effects of disturbance frequency, species traits and resprouting on directional succession in an individual-based model of forest dynamics

(2009) Paul Caplat et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

The velocity of climate change

(2009) Scott R. Loarie et al.   NATURE

Plant Propagation Fronts and Wind Dispersal: An Analytical Model to Upscale from Seconds to Decades Using Superstatistics

(2008) Sally Thompson et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

EVALUATING THE SOURCES OF POTENTIAL MIGRANT SPECIES: IMPLICATIONS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

(2008) Inés Ibáñez et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century

(2008) J. Lenoir et al.   SCIENCE

CLIMATE CHANGE: Ecosystem Disturbance, Carbon, and Climate

(2008) S. W. Running   SCIENCE

Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

(2008) Paul Caplat et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

(2007) Louis R. Iverson et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges

(2007) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   PERSPECTIVES IN PLANT ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS