Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality

Ecological forecasting of tree growth: Regional fusion of tree‐ring and forest inventory data to quantify drivers and characterize uncertainty

(2022) Kelly A. Heilman et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Using near‐term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

(2022) Mary E. Lofton et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Near‐term phytoplankton forecasts reveal the effects of model time step and forecast horizon on predictability

(2022) Whitney M. Woelmer et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

The forecast trap

(2022) Carl Boettiger   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Can machine learning accelerate process understanding and decision‐relevant predictions of river water quality?

(2022) Charuleka Varadharajan et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Modelling past migrations to determine efficient management rules favouring silver eel escapement from a large regulated Floodplain Lake

(2022) Jacques Bourgeaux et al.   JOURNAL FOR NATURE CONSERVATION

Forecasting suppression of invasive sea lamprey in Lake Superior

(2022) Sean A. Lewandoski et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Multi‐Task Deep Learning of Daily Streamflow and Water Temperature

(2022) J. M. Sadler et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Forecasting water quality using seasonal ARIMA model by integrating in-situ measurements and remote sensing techniques in Krishnagiri reservoir, India

(2022) A. Abdul Wahid et al.   Water Practice and Technology

Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale

(2022) Luis J. Gilarranz et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages

(2021) Frances V. Davenport et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Advancing lake and reservoir water quality management with near-term, iterative ecological forecasting

(2021) Cayelan C. Carey et al.   Inland Waters

Prediction of algal bloom occurrence based on the naive Bayesian model considering satellite image pixel differences

(2021) Meng Mu et al.   ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Generating ensemble streamflow forecasts:A review of methods and approaches over the past 40 years

(2021) Magali Troin et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

A novel multi-source data fusion method based on Bayesian inference for accurate estimation of chlorophyll-a concentration over eutrophic lakes

(2021) Cheng Chen et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes

(2021) Tadhg N. Moore et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes

(2021) Stephen F. Jane et al.   NATURE

Forecasting water temperature in lakes and reservoirs using seasonal climate prediction

(2021) Daniel Mercado-Bettín et al.   WATER RESEARCH

Increased adoption of best practices in ecological forecasting enables comparisons of forecastability

(2021) Abigail S. L. Lewis et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

A global agenda for advancing freshwater biodiversity research

(2021) Alain Maasri et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Artificial intelligence application in drought assessment, monitoring and forecasting: a review

(2021) Ayilobeni Kikon et al.   STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT

Ten simple rules for training yourself in an emerging field

(2021) Whitney M. Woelmer et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

A Forecasting and Prediction Methodology for Improving the Blue Economy Resilience to Climate Change in the Romanian Lower Danube Euroregion

(2021) Stefan Mihai Petrea et al.   Sustainability

Iterative Forecasting Improves Near-Term Predictions of Methane Ebullition Rates

(2021) Ryan P. McClure et al.   Frontiers in Environmental Science

Scientists’ warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis

(2020) James S. Albert et al.   AMBIO

Meteolakes: An operational online three-dimensional forecasting platform for lake hydrodynamics

(2020) Theo Baracchini et al.   WATER RESEARCH

A systematic literature review of forecasting and predictive models for cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater lakes

(2020) Benny Zuse Rousso et al.   WATER RESEARCH

Matching the forecast horizon with the relevant spatial and temporal processes and data sources

(2020) Peter B. Adler et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling

(2020) Qianqian Liu et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Calibration and quantifying uncertainty of daily water quality forecasts for large lakes with a Bayesian joint probability modelling approach

(2020) Zhaoliang Peng et al.   WATER RESEARCH

River/stream water temperature forecasting using artificial intelligence models: a systematic review

(2020) Senlin Zhu et al.   Acta Geophysica

Beyond Ecosystem Modeling: A Roadmap to Community Cyberinfrastructure for Ecological Data‐Model Integration

(2020) Istem Fer et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Operational Seasonal Water Supply and Water Level Forecasting for the Laurentian Great Lakes

(2020) Lauren M. Fry et al.   JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

A near‐term iterative forecasting system successfully predicts reservoir hydrodynamics and partitions uncertainty in real time

(2020) R. Quinn Thomas et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate

(2020) Michael E. Fraker et al.   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Forecasting a bright future for ecology

(2019) Michael Dietze et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

(2019) Frank Pennekamp et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Enhancing collaboration between ecologists and computer scientists: lessons learned and recommendations forward

(2019) Cayelan C. Carey et al.   Ecosphere

A data-driven model for real-time water quality prediction and early warning by an integration method

(2019) Tao Jin et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH

Widespread global increase in intense lake phytoplankton blooms since the 1980s

(2019) Jeff C. Ho et al.   NATURE

Process‐Guided Deep Learning Predictions of Lake Water Temperature

(2019) Jordan S. Read et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Using Visualization Science to Improve Expert and Public Understanding of Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

(2019) Michael D. Gerst et al.   Weather Climate and Society

Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a changing future

(2018) John B Bradford et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

(2018) Michael C. Dietze et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Model-based approach for cyber-physical attack detection in water distribution systems

(2018) Mashor Housh et al.   WATER RESEARCH

Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities

(2018) Trevor Page et al.   WATER RESEARCH

Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

(2018) David J. Harris et al.   PeerJ

Individual-based models forecast the spread and inform the management of an emerging riverine invader

(2018) Mathis L. Messager et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Developing an automated iterative near-term forecasting system for an ecological study

(2018) Ethan P. White et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Flood Prediction Using Machine Learning Models: Literature Review

(2018) Amir Mosavi et al.   Water

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

(2017) Shasha Han et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Assimilation of water temperature and discharge data for ensemble water temperature forecasting

(2017) Sébastien Ouellet-Proulx et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

(2017) Sébastien Ouellet-Proulx et al.   Water

Automatic High Frequency Monitoring for Improved Lake and Reservoir Management

(2016) Rafael Marcé et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Extreme events, water quality and health: A participatory Bayesian risk assessment tool for managers of reservoirs

(2016) Edoardo Bertone et al.   JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

Forecasting annual cyanobacterial bloom biomass to inform management decisions in Lake Erie

(2016) Richard P. Stumpf et al.   JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH

Mobile weather apps or the illusion of certainty

(2016) Federica Zabini   METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Invasive species triggers a massive loss of ecosystem services through a trophic cascade

(2016) Jake R. Walsh et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

(2015) Leonard A. Smith et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

(2015) Owen L. Petchey et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction

(2015) F. Pappenberger et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction

(2015) Peter Bauer et al.   NATURE

Measuring freshwater aquatic ecosystems: The need for a hyperspectral global mapping satellite mission

(2015) Erin Lee Hestir et al.   REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT

Complexity is costly: a meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting

(2014) Eric J. Ward et al.   OIKOS

Are invasives worse in freshwater than terrestrial ecosystems?

(2014) Tom P. Moorhouse et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Water

Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data

(2013) C. T. Perretti et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions

(2011) Stan Yip et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions

(2009) Audrey Coreau et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS