Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rachel Hogan Carr, Kathryn Semmens, Burrell Montz, Keri Maxfield
Summary: This research investigates how users tolerate divergence in probabilistic and deterministic forecasts and found that probabilistic forecasts may overwhelm users with valuable yet excessive information, potentially leading to confusion. Most users seek out more information when faced with a divergence between deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, while some report diminished confidence in the products.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Ayana Neta, Yoav Levi, Efrat Morin, Shai Morin
Summary: A forecasting tool that utilizes meteorological data as input and employs a weather generator can accurately predict seasonal population dynamics of insect pests, providing decision makers with useful data for smart seasonal planning and efficient management of agricultural systems.
ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tanja C. Portele, Christof Lorenz, Berhon Dibrani, Patrick Laux, Jan Bliefernicht, Harald Kunstmann
Summary: Increased frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, especially in semi-arid regions. Seasonal forecasting systems such as SEAS5 can provide valuable economic savings in water management decision making by predicting such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead. Consideration of seasonal forecasts is advantageous and necessary in hydrological decision making to avoid significant economic losses.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Agronomy
Mengting Chen, Yuanlai Cui, Xiaonan Wang, Hengwang Xie, Fangping Liu, Tongyuan Luo, Shizong Zheng, Yufeng Luo
Summary: The use of short-term weather forecasts for irrigation decision-making can help conserve water in agriculture, with the DQN irrigation strategy showing strong generalization ability and potential for water savings without significant yield reduction.
AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Olivia G. VanBuskirk, Ty A. Dickinson, Melanie A. Schroers, Renee A. McPherson, Elinor R. Martin
Summary: Extreme precipitation events can have significant impacts on life, property, and the economy. The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scale provides an opportunity for advanced notice of these events. The PRES2iP project team held a workshop to engage practitioners and discuss S2S precipitation products, decision tools, and managing uncertainty in forecasts.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Theresa Boas, HeyeReemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Summary: Long-range weather forecasts can potentially be used in various modeling applications, but their coarse resolutions have limited their widespread use. This study applied sub-seasonal and seasonal weather forecasts from ECMWF to land surface modeling and found that the simulations forced with these forecasts were comparable to the reference simulations forced by reanalysis data. The experiments successfully captured inter-annual variations of crop yield, but improvements are needed in representing soil moisture to increase the model sensitivity to drought stress.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Pengcheng Zhao, Quan J. Wang, Wenyan Wu, Qichun Yang
Summary: This paper proposes a two-step calibration approach that combines the strengths of joint probability models and the useful information included in the ensemble spread. In the first step, the ensemble mean is calibrated using a seasonally coherent calibration model. In the second step, the ensemble forecasts are re-calibrated to incorporate the ensemble spread information. The results show that forecasts calibrated using the two-step calibration approach have better skills.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Olivia VanBuskirk, Paulina Cwik, Renee A. McPherson, Heather Lazrus, Elinor Martin, Charles Kuster, Esther Mullens
Summary: The project team conducted a 2-day workshop to understand stakeholders' needs for S2S predictions and how they manage uncertainty and define extreme precipitation. This collaboration aims to inform the development of predictive models and design new forecast products to empower stakeholders to make more informed decisions.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Andrew Paul Barnes, Nick McCullen, Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen
Summary: This paper presents an approach that combines modern meteorological forecasts with convolutional neural networks to improve the forecasting of monthly regional rainfall in Great Britain. The approach outperforms traditional numerical simulations and empirical models, and shows better performance compared to ECMWF predictions across different lead times.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Dazhi Yang, Guoming Yang, Bai Liu
Summary: This study focuses on optimally combining quantiles of ensemble solar forecasts that have been post-processed. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is used to provide dynamical ensemble irradiance forecasts for solar energy grid integration. However, these ensemble members often lack dispersion, leading to the use of statistical calibration techniques such as quantile regression (QR) and ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). Due to the numerous variants of QR and EMOS, it is unclear which variant performs best in different situations, motivating the combination of quantile forecasts. A framework for combining solar forecasts in the form of quantiles is proposed and demonstrated using a constrained quantile regression averaging scheme. Results show that combining quantiles is an effective strategy in improving the calibrated forecasts.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Louise Crochemore, Carolina Cantone, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Christiana S. Photiadou
Summary: This study analyzed how seasonal forecast performance influenced decision-making based on the Call For Water serious game. It was found that improved forecasts led to better decisions and enabled participants to take more risks. Participants required reliability levels above 60%, and both reliability levels above 70% and sharpness were needed for informed risk-prone strategies.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Korryn Bodner, Carina Rauen Firkowski, Joseph R. Bennett, Cole Brookson, Michael Dietze, Stephanie Green, Josie Hughes, Jeremy Kerr, Melodie Kunegel-Lion, Shawn J. Leroux, Eliot McIntire, Peter K. Molnar, Craig Simpkins, Edward Tekwa, Alexander Watts, Marie-Josee Fortin
Summary: The need for rapid and science-based decision making in the face of accelerating human-induced environmental change has led to increased opportunities to use ecological forecasts. To effectively inform environmental decision making, forecasts should be reliable and designed with clear communication of assumptions, uncertainties, and results. Practical guidelines outlined in this study aim to improve forecasting skills and facilitate the integration of forecasts with decision making, ultimately making them more accurate, precise, transparent, and useful for informing environmental decisions.
Article
Environmental Studies
Jessica N. Burgeno, Susan L. Joslyn
Summary: This study investigates the impact of explicit uncertainty information and forecast inconsistency on trust and decision-making. The results show that updating forecasts with newer, more reliable information and providing reliable uncertainty estimates can support user trust and decision-making.
WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Claire E. Rapp, Robyn S. Wilson, Eric L. Toman, W. Matt Jolly
Summary: Fire managers' confidence in wind and precipitation forecasts is lower compared to relative humidity forecasts. They tend to prefer indirect attack on fires and their decisions are influenced by the framing of the choice experiment and seasonal conditions as well as wind and precipitation forecasts. Further research and improvements in forecast models may be needed to better support fire management decision-making.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Matthew Chantry, Sam Hatfield, Peter Dueben, Inna Polichtchouk, Tim Palmer
Summary: Through machine learning training, we have developed emulators that produce more accurate results in long-term weather forecasting, with more complex networks producing more accurate emulators. In medium-range forecasting, our emulators are found to be more accurate than the parametrization scheme used for operational predictions.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Michael C. Dietze, Andrew Fox, Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson, Julio L. Betancourt, Mevin B. Hooten, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Timothy H. Keitt, Melissa A. Kenney, Christine M. Laney, Laurel G. Larsen, Henry W. Loescher, Claire K. Lunch, Bryan C. Pijanowski, James T. Randerson, Emily K. Read, Andrew T. Tredennick, Rodrigo Vargas, Kathleen C. Weathers, Ethan P. White
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2018)
Letter
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Anne J. Jefferson, Melissa A. Kenney
Letter
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Noelle E. Selin, Melissa A. Kenney, Anne J. Jefferson, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Tessa M. Hill, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Meghan A. Duffy
Article
Environmental Sciences
Melissa A. Kenney, Anthony C. Janetos, Michael D. Gerst
Article
Environmental Sciences
Amanda Hoffman-Hall, Robin Puett, Julie A. Silva, Dong Chen, Allison Baer, Kay Thwe Han, Zay Yar Han, Aung Thi, Thura Htay, Zaw Win Thein, Poe Poe Aung, Christopher V. Plowe, Myaing Myaing Nyunt, Tatiana V. Loboda
Article
Environmental Sciences
Lori Bruhwiler, Sourish Basu, James H. Butler, Abhishek Chatterjee, Ed Dlugokencky, Melissa A. Kenney, Allison McComiskey, Stephen A. Montzka, Diane Stanitski
Summary: Humans have altered the Earth's climate system by extracting and burning fossil fuels, changing the biosphere, and using halocarbons. The development of a system of long-term data indicators for climate and global change is needed to support assessments. This includes identifying key atmospheric indicators for changes in radiative forcing due to GHGs and evaluating atmospheric composition measurements for use in climate change assessments.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Melissa A. Kenney, Michael D. Gerst
Summary: Assessing adaptation requires comprehensive consideration of various indicators, but in practice, navigating through a large amount of information and selecting the most relevant indicators is necessary. To enhance the resilience of a region, key factors such as regional impacts, climate hazards, and adaptive capacity need to be taken into account.
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michael D. Gerst, Melissa A. Kenney, Irina Feygina
Summary: This study explores the use of diagnostic visualization guidelines to enhance the communication of climate indicators. The findings suggest that simplifying design modifications can have a positive impact on understanding, ease of understanding, and liking of climate graphics. Better designs improved understanding similarly for individuals with different levels of numeracy, and design modifications effectively improved understanding across various climate attitudes and ideological spectrum.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Dong Chen, Varada Shevade, Allison Baer, Tatiana Loboda
Summary: Global estimates of burned areas heavily rely on open access to MODIS data, but may be less reliable in certain regions. Evaluation of MCD64A1 and FireCCI51 products in northern boreal forests and tundra showed significant omission errors. The regionally adapted MODIS ABBA product outperforms both MCD64A1 and FireCCI51 in accurately estimating fire activity in high northern latitudes.
Editorial Material
Engineering, Environmental
Melissa A. A. Kenney, Michael D. D. Gerst, Emily Read
Summary: The open data movement is a major advancement in water management, requiring data to be findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. However, there is a lack of accessibility and usability case studies and guidelines for water resources decision making. This commentary highlights knowledge gaps and discusses a general usability testing method that can be applied to any water resources decision support product.
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jake F. Weltzin, Julio L. Betancourt, Benjamin I. Cook, Theresa M. Crimmins, Carolyn A. F. Enquist, Michael D. Gerst, John E. Gross, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Rebecca A. Hufft, Melissa A. Kenney, John S. Kimball, Bradley C. Reed, Steven W. Running
Article
Environmental Studies
Grace D. Molino, Melissa A. Kenney, Ariana E. Sutton-Grier
Article
Business
Michael D. Gerst, Melissa A. Kenney, Brett E. Howard, Robert J. Giraud
BUSINESS STRATEGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
(2020)