Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era

Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium

(2021) L. Caesar et al.   Nature Geoscience

Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing

(2021) Michael E. Mann et al.   SCIENCE

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

(2021) Niklas Boers   Nature Climate Change

Hydroclimate Dipole Drives Multi‐Centennial Variability in the Western Tropical North Atlantic Margin During the Middle and Late Holocene

(2021) Richard M. Sullivan et al.   Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

Competing Topographic Mechanisms for the Summer Indo‐Asian Monsoon

(2020) R. P. Acosta et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations

(2020) Michael E. Mann et al.   Nature Communications

Timescales and mechanisms for the Tropical Pacific response to global warming: a tug of war between the Ocean Thermostat and weaker Walker

(2020) Ulla K. Heede et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

(2020) Nerilie J. Abram et al.   NATURE

No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium

(2020) Sylvia G. Dee et al.   SCIENCE

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

(2020) S. Sherwood et al.   REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS

Observational and Model Evidence for an Important Role for Volcanic Forcing Driving Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Last 600 Years

(2020) Amanda J. Waite et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Centennial‐Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability

(2020) Elizabeth J. Wallace et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming

(2019) Tapio Schneider et al.   Nature Geoscience

No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era

(2019) Raphael Neukom et al.   NATURE

Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

(2019)   Nature Geoscience

Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases

(2019) Richard Seager et al.   Nature Climate Change

Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism

(2019) Lei Zhang et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A Role for the Equatorial Undercurrent in the Ocean Dynamical Thermostat

(2018) S. Coats et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Interpretations of the Paris climate target

(2018) A. P. Schurer et al.   Nature Geoscience

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

(2017) Yiyong Luo et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C

(2017) Richard J. Millar et al.   Nature Geoscience

Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

(2017) Andra J. Garner et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

(2017) Andrew P. Schurer et al.   Nature Climate Change

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

(2017) Julien Emile-Geay et al.   Scientific Data

Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

(2016) Gary Shaffer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Reduction of Climate Sensitivity to Solar Forcing due to Stratospheric Ozone Feedback

(2016) G. Chiodo et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

(2016) Robert E. Kopp et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results

(2016) Gregory J. Hakim et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

(2016) Lisa M. Baldini et al.   Scientific Reports

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

(2015) Andra J. Reed et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

(2015) Stefan Rahmstorf et al.   Nature Climate Change

An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

(2015) Andra J. Reed et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

(2015) B. I. Cook et al.   Science Advances

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimate variability in the Pacific Northwest

(2014) Byron A. Steinman et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

(2014) James P. Kossin et al.   NATURE

False Hope

(2014) Michael E. Mann   SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN

Missing tree rings and the AD 774–775 radiocarbon event

(2014) Scott Rutherford et al.   Nature Climate Change

Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium

(2013) Andrew P. Schurer et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Improved Representation of Tropical Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamics in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model

(2013) Ryan L. Sriver et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium*

(2013) Benjamin I. Cook et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

(2013) R. Caballero et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

(2013) S. A. Marcott et al.   SCIENCE

Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium

(2013) Michael E. Kozar et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms

(2013) Michael E. Mann et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Future Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multimodel Projections

(2012) Fangxing Fan et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

(2012) Jeremy D. Shakun et al.   NATURE

Tree rings and volcanic cooling

(2012) Kevin J. Anchukaitis et al.   Nature Geoscience

Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures

(2012) Michael E. Mann et al.   Nature Geoscience

Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

(2011) A. C. Kemp et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region

(2010) K. J. Anchukaitis et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period*

(2010) Fangxing Fan et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Global warming, convective threshold and false thermostats

(2009) Ian N. Williams et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Equivocal evidence for a thermostat and unusually low levels of coral bleaching in the Western Pacific Warm Pool

(2009) Ruben van Hooidonk et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years

(2009) Michael E. Mann et al.   NATURE

Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly

(2009) M. E. Mann et al.   SCIENCE

Understanding Changes in the Asian Summer Monsoon over the Past Millennium: Insights from a Long-Term Coupled Model Simulation*

(2008) Fangxing Fan et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes

(2008) Reto Knutti et al.   Nature Geoscience