Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia

The ACCESS coupled model: description, control climate and evaluation

(2017) D Bi et al.   Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

A skill score based evaluation of simulated Australian climate

(2017) I Watterson et al.   Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Explaining Spatial Variation in the Recording Effort of Citizen Science Data across Multiple Taxa

(2016) Louise Mair et al.   PLoS One

The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change

(2015) Gunnar Keppel et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications

(2015) Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Assessing spatio-temporal priorities for species’ recovery in broad-scale dynamic landscapes

(2015) Truly Santika et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Tree-hugging koalas demonstrate a novel thermoregulatory mechanism for arboreal mammals

(2014) N. J. Briscoe et al.   Biology Letters

A 40-year, continent-wide, multispecies assessment of relevant climate predictors for species distribution modelling

(2014) Morgane Barbet-Massin et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Bergmann meets Scholander: geographical variation in body size and insulation in the koala is related to climate

(2014) Natalie J. Briscoe et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change and Their Implications for Biodiversity

(2014) R. A. Garcia et al.   SCIENCE

Squeezing information from regional climate change projections - results from a synthesis of CMIP5 results for south-east Queensland, Australia

(2013) Ian Smith et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Climate-mediated habitat selection in an arboreal folivore

(2013) Mathew S. Crowther et al.   ECOGRAPHY

A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter

(2013) Cory Merow et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

(2013) Jonathan Bennie et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Activity restriction and the mechanistic basis for extinctions under climate warming

(2013) Michael R. Kearney   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

(2013) Antoine Guisan et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

A road map for integrating eco-evolutionary processes into biodiversity models

(2013) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

(2013) Heini Kujala et al.   PLoS One

Model-Based Control of Observer Bias for the Analysis of Presence-Only Data in Ecology

(2013) David I. Warton et al.   PLoS One

Microclimate modelling at macro scales: a test of a general microclimate model integrated with gridded continental-scale soil and weather data

(2013) Michael R. Kearney et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Eucalypts face increasing climate stress

(2013) Nathalie Butt et al.   Ecology and Evolution

Modelling changes in the distribution of the critical food resources of a specialist folivore in response to climate change

(2012) Christine Adams-Hosking et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance

(2012) Carsten F. Dormann et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Balancing heat, water and nutrients under environmental change: a thermodynamic niche framework

(2012) Michael R. Kearney et al.   FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY

The costs of keeping cool in a warming world: implications of high temperatures for foraging, thermoregulation and body condition of an arid-zone bird

(2012) Katherine L. du Plessis et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy

(2012) Carsten F. Dormann et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

The effect of future climate scenarios on the balance between productivity and greenhouse gas emissions from sheep grazing systems

(2012) M.J. Bell et al.   Livestock Science

An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

(2012) Thomas Wernberg et al.   Nature Climate Change

Adapting conservation efforts to face climate change: Modifying nest-site provisioning for lesser kestrels

(2011) Inês Catry et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves

(2011) Xavier Robin et al.   BMC BIOINFORMATICS

Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension

(2011) Boris Orlowsky et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

(2011) Keywan Riahi et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events, not climate means, in species distribution models

(2011) Brooke L. Bateman et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change

(2011) Nicholas W. Synes et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change

(2011) Gunnar Keppel et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea Ice Simulations

(2011) Stephen M. Griffies et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The ecological role of climate extremes: current understanding and future prospects

(2011) Melinda D. Smith   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

The limit to the distribution of a rainforest marsupial folivore is consistent with the thermal intolerance hypothesis

(2011) Andrew K. Krockenberger et al.   OECOLOGIA

Drought-driven change in wildlife distribution and numbers: a case study of koalas in south west Queensland

(2011) Leonie Seabrook et al.   WILDLIFE RESEARCH

Modelling climate-change-induced shifts in the distribution of the koala

(2011) Christine Adams-Hosking et al.   WILDLIFE RESEARCH

A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Weather, Not Climate, Defines Distributions of Vagile Bird Species

(2010) April E. Reside et al.   PLoS One

Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change

(2010) Michael R. Kearney et al.   Conservation Letters

The art of modelling range-shifting species

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Combined effects of heat waves and droughts on avian communities across the conterminous United States

(2010) Thomas P. Albright et al.   Ecosphere

Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate

(2009) Matthew C. Fitzpatrick et al.   BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION

Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models

(2009) Jane Elith et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

(2009) José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data

(2009) Steven J. Phillips et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change

(2009) Xavier Morin et al.   ECOLOGY

Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges

(2009) Michael Kearney et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Integrating biophysical models and evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on species’ ranges: the dengue mosquitoAedes aegyptiin Australia

(2009) Michael Kearney et al.   FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY

Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

(2009) LAËTITIA BUISSON et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

(2009) Corinne Le Quéré et al.   Nature Geoscience

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

(2009) S. T. Jackson et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

(2009) N. E. Zimmermann et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Shifting latitudinal clines in avian body size correlate with global warming in Australian passerines

(2009) J. L. Gardner et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Climate change and winegrape quality in Australia

(2008) LB Webb et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

The demographic impact of extreme events: stochastic weather drives survival and population dynamics in a long-lived seabird

(2008) M. Frederiksen et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

Linking Traits to Energetics and Population Dynamics to Predict Lizard Ranges in Changing Environments

(2007) Lauren B. Buckley   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes

(2007) J. A Welbergen et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES