Global Mean Surface Temperature Response to Large‐Scale Patterns of Variability in Observations and CMIP5

Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models

(2018) Xiaoqin Yan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Evaluating SST Analyses with Independent Ocean Profile Observations

(2018) Boyin Huang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability

(2018) Leela M. Frankcombe et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability

(2018) Shayne McGregor et al.   Nature Climate Change

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

(2017) Benjamin J Henley et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation simulated in the CMIP5 models: A re-evaluation based on a revised index

(2017) Kewei Lyu et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The post-2002 global surface warming slowdown caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration

(2017) A. Oka et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The role of historical forcings in simulating the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

(2017) Lisa N. Murphy et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

(2017) Benjamin J. Henley et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes

(2017) Martin B. Stolpe et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons

(2017) Boyin Huang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Comparison of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations

(2017) Anson H. Cheung et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

(2017) Iselin Medhaug et al.   NATURE

Climate science: Origins of Atlantic decadal swings

(2017) Gabriel A. Vecchi et al.   NATURE

Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years

(2017) Jianglin Wang et al.   Nature Geoscience

The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses

(2017) Christopher Hedemann et al.   Nature Climate Change

The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability

(2016) Petr Chylek et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The Atlanto-Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record

(2016) Melinda Nagy et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends

(2016) Y. Chikamoto et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The signature of low-frequency oceanic forcing in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

(2016) Christopher H. O'Reilly et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Spatial Patterns and Frequency of Unforced Decadal-Scale Changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature in Climate Models

(2016) Eleanor A. Middlemas et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited

(2016) Matthew Newman et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

(2016) Yu Kosaka et al.   Nature Geoscience

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

(2016) Antonello Pasini et al.   THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends

(2016) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   Nature Climate Change

Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown

(2016) Doug M. Smith et al.   Nature Climate Change

Modelling interdecadal climate variability and the role of the ocean

(2016) Riccardo Farneti   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

(2015) Benjamin J. Henley et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

(2015) Kevin Cowtan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?

(2015) H. Douville et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Separating Internal Variability from the Externally Forced Climate Response

(2015) Leela M. Frankcombe et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends

(2015) Jochem Marotzke et al.   NATURE

Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

(2015) Byron A. Steinman et al.   SCIENCE

The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation

(2015) Shuai-Lei Yao et al.   THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus

(2015) Matthew H. England et al.   Nature Climate Change

Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

(2015) Xichen Li et al.   Nature Climate Change

Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

(2015) Aiguo Dai et al.   Nature Climate Change

Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

(2014) M D Palmer et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries

(2014) Nicola Maher et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO

(2014) Michael E. Mann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Reconciling warming trends

(2014) Gavin A. Schmidt et al.   Nature Geoscience

Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

(2014) Markus Huber et al.   Nature Geoscience

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature

(2014) Benjamin D. Santer et al.   Nature Geoscience

Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus

(2014) Masahiro Watanabe et al.   Nature Climate Change

Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming

(2014) Shayne McGregor et al.   Nature Climate Change

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

(2014) Matthew H. England et al.   Nature Climate Change

The formation of the recent cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated climate impacts: A competition of global warming, IPO, and AMO

(2014) Lu Dong et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium

(2013) Andrew P. Schurer et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models*

(2013) Alexander Sen Gupta et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

(2013) Yu Kosaka et al.   NATURE

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

(2012) J.-J. Luo et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

(2011) Keywan Riahi et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade

(2011) J.-P. Vernier et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE

(2010) J. Hansen et al.   REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Inferred from the Forced Climate Response in Coupled General Circulation Models

(2008) Jeff R. Knight   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE