Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15

Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model

(2018) Sebastian Funk et al.   Epidemics

The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt

(2018) Cécile Viboud et al.   Epidemics

Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks

(2018) William J. M. Probert et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia

(2017) Sebastian Funk et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Enforcing calibration in ensemble postprocessing

(2017) Daniel S. Wilks   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture

(2017) Leonhard Held et al.   STATISTICS IN MEDICINE

Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States

(2017) Teresa K. Yamana et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge

(2016) Matthew Biggerstaff et al.   BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast

(2016) Kelly R. Moran et al.   JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks

(2016) Teresa K. Yamana et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

(2016) Michael A. Johansson et al.   Scientific Reports

Evaluation of Ebola spreading in West Africa and decision of optimal medicine delivery strategies based on mathematical models

(2015) Fangliang Dong et al.   INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION

Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis

(2015) Stefano Merler et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data

(2015) P. M. Dawson et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

(2015) H. Heesterbeek et al.   SCIENCE

Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach

(2015) Anton Camacho et al.   BMJ Open

Ebola Cases and Health System Demand in Liberia

(2015) John M. Drake et al.   PLOS BIOLOGY

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong

(2015) Wan Yang et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

(2015) Fengchen Liu et al.   PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

(2015) Jean-Paul Chretien et al.   eLife

Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014

(2014) H Nishiura et al.   Eurosurveillance

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts

(2014) Rachel Lowe et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis

(2014) Joseph A Lewnard et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Probabilistic Forecasting

(2014) Tilmann Gneiting et al.   Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application

Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction

(2012) Petra Friederichs et al.   ENVIRONMETRICS

Predicting the Epidemic Sizes of Influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: A Statistical Method

(2011) Edward Goldstein et al.   PLOS MEDICINE

A Score Regression Approach to Assess Calibration of Continuous Probabilistic Predictions

(2010) L. Held et al.   BIOMETRICS

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

(2010) Christophe Andrieu et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data

(2009) Claudia Czado et al.   BIOMETRICS