Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Detecting Regions of Maximal Divergence for Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection

(2018) Bjorn Barz et al.   IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON PATTERN ANALYSIS AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE

Future climate risk from compound events

(2018) Jakob Zscheischler et al.   Nature Climate Change

Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America

(2018) Ruth Lorenz et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate

(2018) Nadja Herger et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Understanding and reducing future uncertainty in mid-latitude daily heat extremes via land surface feedback constraints

(2018) Markus G. Donat et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

(2018) Peter M. Cox et al.   NATURE

An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability

(2018) A. E. Dessler et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

CMIP5 models' shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent

(2017) Bernard R. Lipat et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions

(2017) Florent F. Malavelle et al.   NATURE

Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

(2017) Gen Li et al.   Nature Climate Change

Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans

(2017) Lester Kwiatkowski et al.   Nature Climate Change

An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming

(2017) S. E. Chadburn et al.   Nature Climate Change

Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations

(2017) Douglas Maraun et al.   Nature Climate Change

Constraints on Climate Sensitivity from Space-Based Measurements of Low-Cloud Reflection

(2016) Florent Brient et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression*

(2016) Sabrina Wenzel et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

(2016) Sabrina Wenzel et al.   NATURE

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

(2016) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   Nature Communications

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

(2016) John C. Fyfe et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate forcing datasets for agricultural modeling: Merged products for gap-filling and historical climate series estimation

(2015) Alex C. Ruane et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming

(2015) Yoko Tsushima et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024

(2015) Malte Thoma et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Spread of model climate sensitivity linked to double-Intertropical Convergence Zone bias

(2015) Baijun Tian   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

(2015) Benjamin M. Sanderson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble

(2015) Benjamin M. Sanderson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections

(2015) G. Abramowitz et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification

(2015) Anthony M. DeAngelis et al.   NATURE

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

(2015) T. R. Karl et al.   SCIENCE

Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems

(2015) Jakob Runge et al.   Nature Communications

Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: causes, impacts and ways forward

(2015) Ingo Richter   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

ENSO in CMIP5 simulations: network connectivity from the recent past to the twenty-third century

(2014) Ilias Fountalis et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining

(2014) Peter M. Caldwell et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A Bayesian Approach for Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Precipitation Projections Including Climate Model Interdependency and Nonstationary Bias

(2014) Maria Antonia Sunyer et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature

(2014) Benjamin D. Santer et al.   Nature Geoscience

A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases

(2014) Chunzai Wang et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming

(2014) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   Nature Climate Change

Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models

(2014) Sabrina Wenzel et al.   Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences

Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

(2013) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change

(2013) Angeline G. Pendergrass et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression

(2013) Alexey Yu. Karpechko et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability

(2013) Peter M. Cox et al.   NATURE

Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing

(2013) Steven C. Sherwood et al.   NATURE

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework

(2013) Lila Warszawski et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

What Are Climate Models Missing?

(2013) B. Stevens et al.   SCIENCE

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

(2013) John C. Fyfe et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate

(2013) J. Sillmann et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models

(2013) F. M. Hoffman et al.   Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences

Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm

(2012) Craig H. Bishop et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Interpretation of the positive low-cloud feedback predicted by a climate model under global warming

(2012) Florent Brient et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change

(2012) Paul A. O’Gorman   Nature Geoscience

Tuning the climate of a global model

(2012) Thorsten Mauritsen et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

(2011) A. Bodas-Salcedo et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Climate model genealogy

(2011) D. Masson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique

(2011) Carl A. Mears et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

The end of model democracy?

(2010) Reto Knutti   CLIMATIC CHANGE

On the Effective Number of Climate Models

(2010) Christopher Pennell et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change

(2009) Jouni Räisänen et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies

(2009) B. D. Santer et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA