Skill improvement from increased ensemble size and model diversity

Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

(2014) Rosie Eade et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Comparing Forecast Skill

(2014) Timothy DelSole et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction

(2013) Ben P. Kirtman et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Predictions of Nino3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: a diagnostic comparison

(2013) Anthony G. Barnston et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Scale-Selective Ridge Regression for Multimodel Forecasting

(2013) Timothy DelSole et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Simple Uncertainty Frameworks for Selecting Weighting Schemes and Interpreting Multimodel Ensemble Climate Change Experiments

(2013) Philip G. Sansom et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

(2013) Suranjana Saha et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

(2012) Geert Jan van Oldenborgh et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

An Analysis of the Nonstationarity in the Bias of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2

(2012) A. Kumar et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting?

(2012) Timothy DelSole et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections

(2010) Andreas P. Weigel et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Multimodel Ensemble ENSO Prediction with CCSM and CFS

(2009) Ben P. Kirtman et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

On the Weighting of Multimodel Ensembles in Seasonal and Short-Range Weather Forecasting

(2009) Sophie Casanova et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Consolidation of Multimodel Forecasts by Ridge Regression: Application to Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

(2008) Malaquias Peña et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE