Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
A. Hooijer, R. Vernimmen
Summary: The study reveals that areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise are mainly located in tropical regions, especially in tropical Asia. Even with a conservative estimate of 1 meter sea-level rise, the population in these areas is expected to increase significantly.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yu Zhang, Daniil Svyatsky, Joel C. Rowland, J. David Moulton, Zhendong Cao, Phillip J. Wolfram, Chonggang Xu, Donatella Pasqualini
Summary: Coastal marsh evolution plays a significant role in future coastal freshwater-saltwater interaction and should not be ignored when evaluating coastal saltwater intrusion under sea level rise.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Angelo Breda, Patricia M. Saco, Steven G. Sandi, Neil Saintilan, Gerardo Riccardi, Jose F. Rodriguez
Summary: The vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise is influenced by processes of vertical accretion and landward migration. Wetlands respond to these factors by trapping sediments and migrating to more preferred inundation conditions, with their responses depending on water flow and sediment distribution within the wetland. Neglecting these factors in wetland response analysis can lead to inaccurate estimates of wetland resilience.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Navid Tahvildari, Luca Castrucci
Summary: This study investigates the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure to storm surge flooding due to relative sea level rise. A coupled hydrodynamic and wave model is developed and validated in southeast Virginia, where sea level rise is highest on the US East Coast. Results show that flood intensity and duration increase with sea level rise, and linear superposition may overestimate inundation effects.
NATURAL HAZARDS REVIEW
(2021)
Article
Geography, Physical
Alar Rosentau, Volker Klemann, Ole Bennike, Holger Steffen, Jasmin Wehr, Milena Latinovic, Meike Bagge, Antti Ojala, Mikael Berglund, Gustaf Peterson Becher, Kristian Schoning, Anton Hansson, Lars Nielsen, Lars B. Clemmensen, Mikkel U. Hede, Aart Kroon, Morten Pejrup, Lasse Sander, Karl Stattegger, Klaus Schwarzer, Reinhard Lampe, Matthias Lampe, Szymon Uscinowicz, Albertas Bitinas, Ieva Grudzinska, Jueri Vassiljev, Triine Nirgi, Yuriy Kublitskiy, Dmitry Subetto
Summary: This study compiles and analyzes 1099 Holocene relative shore-level indicators around the Baltic Sea, with a focus on data points related to the last marine stage. Results show that regions with negative RSL tendencies dominate, while transitional regions exhibit shifts from positive to negative tendencies in the mid-Holocene. Comparisons with GIA predictions highlight the need for improvements in ice-sheet and Earth-structure models, demonstrating the potential benefits of this new compilation for future studies.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2021)
Article
Limnology
Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Gerard Govers, Matthew L. Kirwan, Stijn Temmerman
Summary: The adaptability of coastal wetlands to relative sea level rise is influenced by the tidal pattern, with less frequent diurnal tides leading to higher vulnerability. This overlooked driver highlights the need for further research on the impact of tidal patterns on wetland ecosystems.
LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
Karinna Nunez, Yinglong J. Zhang, Donna M. Bilkovic, Carlton Hershner
Summary: This study used the Tidal Marsh Model (TMM) and SCHISM to simulate changes in marsh systems in a subestuary of Chesapeake Bay under two scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next 50 years. The results showed that the sustainability of marshes is influenced by geomorphic settings and anthropogenic factors, with different rates of marsh decline observed under varying SLR scenarios.
OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT
(2021)
Article
Geography, Physical
Natascia Pannozzo, Nicoletta Leonardi, Iacopo Carnacina, Rachel Smedley
Summary: Research on the impact of storm surges and sea-level rise on salt marsh sediment budgets suggests that storm surges can promote resilience of the salt marsh and estuarine system, while sea-level rise may threaten stability of the marsh.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Juliet P. Sefton, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart, Joanna C. Ellison, Makan A. Karegar, Blair Charley, Mark D. McCoy
Summary: This study reveals that the rise of relative sea level due to subsidence may have concealed evidence of early settlement in Remote Oceania. Additionally, famous sites were constructed at lower sea levels than previously thought, making them more vulnerable to future sea level rise.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nadia A. Seeteram, Kevin Ash, Brett F. Sanders, Jochen E. Schubert, Katharine J. Mach
Summary: This study demonstrates a framework for estimating the direct and indirect impacts of sea-level rise on mobility using flood exposure modeling and social vulnerability assessment. The research focuses on Miami-Dade County, USA, and shows that as sea-level rise increases, the population faces the risks of displacement or being trapped, leading to stress on residents and the economy.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Rachel B. Stearns, Simon E. Engelhart, Andrew C. Kemp, Troy D. Hill, Matthew J. Brain, Reide Corbett
Summary: Tide-gauge measurements in the western North Atlantic Ocean reveal consistent multi-decadal relative sea-level trends across various scales. Proxy reconstructions from salt-marsh sediments can extend this record, but the coherence of these reconstructions within a region is not well-investigated. In this study, a new relative sea-level reconstruction from Fox Hill Marsh, Rhode Island is developed to complement existing records at nearby sites, using a Bayesian transfer function and radiocarbon dating. The findings replicate regional tide-gauge measurements and other proxy reconstructions, highlighting the importance of continued replication efforts to enhance confidence in sea-level records.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2023)
Article
Geography, Physical
Fangyi Tan, Nicole S. Khan, Tanghua Li, Aron J. Meltzner, Jedrzej Majewski, Nicholas Chan, Peter M. Chutcharavan, Niamh Cahill, Matteo Vacchi, Dongju Peng, Benjamin P. Horton
Summary: This study establishes a standardized database of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) data from far-field islands in the mid-Pacific. The database can be used to validate the ice-melting histories of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. Lack of quality control in the RSL reconstruction hinders understanding of regional variability and ice-equivalent sea-level changes.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Sherein El-Shahat, Abbas Mohamed El-Zafarany, Tarek Abou El Seoud, Safaa A. Ghoniem
Summary: This study aimed to address the lack of studies on African coasts by developing a sea level rise vulnerability assessment. It found that deltas are the most vulnerable areas along the African coasts. The customized CVI method used in the study classified African coastal areas into different degrees of vulnerabilities.
ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Paramita Roy, Subodh Chandra Pal, Rabin Chakrabortty, Indrajit Chowdhuri, Asish Saha, Manisa Shit
Summary: The research aims to estimate the potential impact of climate change on sea level rise and its vulnerability to coastal habitat. The findings show an increasing trend of sea level rise from the base period to the projected period, particularly in the major port city of India. By quantitatively estimating physical environmental characteristics including geomorphology, sea level change, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, mean wave height, mean tide range, shoreline change rate, land use and human activities, and population, a qualitative coastal vulnerability index (CVI) is developed. The projected sea level rise is increasing at the highest rate under the higher Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) scenario. This information is valuable for decision-makers in formulating appropriate development strategies for sustainable coastal ecology in India.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
Ali Reza Payandeh, Dubravko Justic, Haosheng Huang, Giulio C. Mariotti, Scott Hagen
Summary: Tidal range is a key factor in estuaries and is expected to change with sea level rise. This study investigates the effect of future sea level rise on tidal dynamics in Barataria Bay and finds that tidal range increases even with extensive land inundation.
CONTINENTAL SHELF RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
D. J. Rasmussen, Scott Kulp, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, Benjamin H. Strauss
Summary: Estimates of changes in extreme sea levels are important for communicating the physical basis for societal concern regarding sea level rise. Contextualizing changes in hazards is also necessary for communicating projected ESL frequencies and critical thresholds to policymakers, stakeholders, and the general public. Regional and global climate assessment reports should integrate global, regional, and local perspectives on coastal risk.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. M. Majewski, A. J. Meltzner, A. D. Switzer, T. A. Shaw, T. Li, S. Bradley, J. S. Walker, R. E. Kopp, D. Samanta, D. H. Natawidjaja, B. W. Suwargadi, B. P. Horton
Summary: The small number of reliable long-term tide gauges in tropical locations is a major source of uncertainty in modern sea-level change. By studying coral microatolls, researchers obtained a record of relative sea-level change in Mapur Island from the 20th and 21st centuries. By combining this data with tide gauge data, they were able to determine a relatively stable rate of RSL change.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Editorial Material
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
L. Caesar, G. D. McCarthy, D. J. R. Thornalley, N. Cahill, S. Rahmstorf
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jennifer S. Walker, Robert E. Kopp, Christopher M. Little, Benjamin P. Horton
Summary: Sea-level rise is an important indicator of climate changes. The authors estimate that global sea-level rise emerged by 1863 and find spatial variability of emergence at sites within the North Atlantic.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Jason S. Padgett, Simon E. Engelhart, Harvey M. Kelsey, Robert C. Witter, Niamh Cahill
Summary: This study examines fossil foraminiferal assemblages to assess sudden relative sea level changes in northern Humboldt Bay, California. The results reveal significant variability in subsidence stratigraphy across an estuary. The study also highlights the importance of multiple microfossil reconstructions from different marsh sites to account for estimation variability and enhance confidence in vertical coseismic deformation estimates.
JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Niamh Cahill, Jacky Croke, Micheline Campbell, Kate Hughes, John Vitkovsky, Jack Eaton Kilgallen, Andrew Parnell
Summary: We propose a Bayesian model for probabilistic reconstructions of hydroclimatic variability in Queensland Australia using multiple palaeoclimate proxy records. The model combines time-series modeling with inverse prediction to reconstruct the hydroclimate back through time. Case studies for Brisbane and Fitzroy catchments show the probability of extreme hydroclimate behavior beyond the observed instrumental period.
Article
Geography, Physical
Jennifer S. Walker, Tanghua Li, Timothy A. Shaw, Niamh Cahill, Donald C. Barber, Matthew J. Brain, Robert E. Kopp, Adam D. Switzer, Benjamin P. Horton
Summary: Stratigraphic data from salt marshes accurately reconstruct Holocene relative sea-level change and provide necessary constraints to glacial isostatic adjustment models. A new record of Mid- to Late-Holocene sea-level rise is presented using basal peats from a salt marsh in New Jersey. The sea-level index points range from 1211 to 4414 years BP, and the average rate of sea-level rise from 5000 years BP to present is 1.7 +/- 0.1 mm/year. Comparisons with GIA models show the models tend to overestimate sea-level rise in the past 5000 years.
Article
Engineering, Civil
D. J. Rasmussen, Robert E. E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer
Summary: Storm surge barriers are politically challenging climate adaptation options due to environmental laws that allow for oppositional views and the existence of alternative options that are more attractive and cost-effective. Future flood protection megaprojects should obtain broad support from the public, NGOs, and elected officials before serious planning begins. Innovative designs that address environmental impacts and provide cobenefits should be studied to ensure their reliability and gain confidence from USACE.
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tim H. J. Hermans, Victor Malagon-Santos, Caroline A. Katsman, Robert A. Jane, D. J. Rasmussen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Gregory G. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, Aimee B. A. Slangen
Summary: Sea-level rise increases the likelihood of exceeding local protection infrastructure, and the authors propose a method to determine when the degree of local protection decreases. This study projects the timing of extreme sea level frequency amplification relative to estimated local flood protection standards. Results show that within the next 30 years, the frequency of exceeding protection standards will significantly increase at a high proportion of tide gauges under different emissions scenarios.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Robert E. E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, Jessica L. L. O'Reilly, Sybren S. S. Drijfhout, Tamsin L. L. Edwards, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Gregory G. G. Garner, Nicholas R. R. Golledge, Tim H. J. Hermans, Helene T. T. Hewitt, Benjamin P. P. Horton, Gerhard Krinner, Dirk Notz, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. D. Palmer, Aimee B. A. Slangen, Cunde Xiao
Summary: Future sea-level change has both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties, and effectively communicating these uncertainties is a key challenge in translating sea-level science for coastal planning. Scientific assessments have taken different approaches to communicate sea-level projection uncertainty, and this information influenced the presentation of uncertainties in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The goal is to preserve both quantifiable and unquantifiable elements as projections are adapted for regional application.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Daniella Hirschfeld, David Behar, Robert J. Nicholls, Niamh Cahill, Thomas James, Benjamin P. Horton, Michelle E. Portman, Rob Bell, Matthew Campo, Miguel Esteban, Bronwyn Goble, Munsur Rahman, Kwasi Appeaning Addo, Faiz Ahmed Chundeli, Monique Aunger, Orly Babitsky, Anders Beal, Ray Boyle, Jiayi Fang, Amir Gohar, Susan Hanson, Saul Karamesines, M. J. Kim, Hilary Lohmann, Kathy McInnes, Nobuo Mimura, Doug Ramsay, Landis Wenger, Hiromune Yokoki
Summary: Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in coastal adaptation planning is crucial, but only 72% of coastal practitioners currently utilize them, with lower utilization in developing countries. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections, but countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Timothy A. Shaw, Tanghua Li, Trina Ng, Niamh Cahill, Stephen Chua, Jedrzej M. Majewski, Yudhishthra Nathan, Gregory G. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Till J. J. Hanebuth, Adam D. Switzer, Benjamin P. Horton
Summary: Low elevation equatorial and tropical coastal regions are at high risk due to sea level rise. Based on regional geological reconstructions and instrumental records, we provide probability perspectives of future sea level for Singapore. The quantification of sea-level change reveals that during the last deglaciation, sea level rose by approximately 121 m and had an average rate of 15 mm/yr, resulting in a reduction of the paleogeographic landscape by about 2.3 million km(2). Projections suggest that under a moderate emissions scenario, sea level is expected to rise by 0.95 m at a rate of 7.3 mm/yr by 2150, which has only been exceeded during rapid ice mass loss events similar to 14.5 and similar to 9 thousand years ago. However, projections under a high emissions scenario incorporating uncertain ice-sheet processes have no precedent during the last deglaciation.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Brett Buzzanga, David P. S. Bekaert, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Robert E. Kopp, Marin Govorcin, Kenneth G. Miller
Summary: Regional relative sea level rise has increased flooding hazards in coastal areas. Vertical land motion (VLM) plays a role in spatial variations of sea level change. Using advanced technology, we analyzed data in the New York City metropolitan area and discovered previously undocumented hot spots of both subsidence and uplift. Our findings provide valuable information for adapting to sea level rise and conducting surface geology research.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Nicholas Depsky, Ian Bolliger, Daniel Allen, Jun Ho Choi, Michael Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Ali Hamidi, Trevor Houser, Robert E. Kopp, Solomon Hsiang
Summary: Sea level rise may have significant economic costs to coastal communities worldwide, but estimating its global impact is difficult due to various factors such as topography, asset distribution, and adaptation decisions. This study presents a modular, open-source platform that provides transparent estimates of adaptation and net sea level rise costs for global coastlines and regions, taking into account different socioeconomic and sea level rise scenarios.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2023)
