期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 9, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0
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资金
- National Research Foundation Singapore
- Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative
- National Science Foundation [ARC-1203415, OCE-1458904, DEB-1237733, OCE-1426981, EAR-1529245]
- Community Foundation of New Jersey
- European Research Council [ERC-StG-678145-CoupledIceClim]
- International Geoscience Programme [639]
- NERC [BIGF010001, NRCF010001] Funding Source: UKRI
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1440015] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Tidal marshes rank among Earth's vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes' ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are >= 7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a > 80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040.
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