Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models

Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake

(2017) Nicole S Lovenduski et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958-2015

(2017) Takamitsu Ito et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

(2017) J. E. Campbell et al.   NATURE

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

(2017) Terry P. Hughes et al.   NATURE

A box model for representing estuarine physical processes in Earth system models

(2017) Qiang Sun et al.   OCEAN MODELLING

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

(2017) Charles A. Stock et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

(2017) Desiree Tommasi et al.   PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

(2017) Stephanie A. Henson et al.   Nature Communications

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

(2017) Peter J. Irvine et al.   Earths Future

Forests, Climate, and Public Policy: A 500-Year Interdisciplinary Odyssey

(2016) Gordon B. Bonan   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities

(2016) G. Brooke Anderson et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5

(2016) Samuel Levis et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

How much global burned area can be forecast on seasonal time scales using sea surface temperatures?

(2016) Yang Chen et al.   Environmental Research Letters

How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

(2016) Alexandra Jahn et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors

(2016) Thomas L. Frölicher et al.   GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

(2016) Nicole S. Lovenduski et al.   GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models simulate dissolved iron distributions?

(2016) Alessandro Tagliabue et al.   GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Larval connectivity across temperature gradients and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations

(2016) Joan A. Kleypas et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Characterizing Sierra Nevada Snowpack Using Variable-Resolution CESM

(2016) Alan M. Rhoades et al.   Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Timescales for detection of trends in the ocean carbon sink

(2016) Galen A. McKinley et al.   NATURE

Plant responses to increasing CO2reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

(2016) Abigail L. S. Swann et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

(2016) Brett R. Scheffers et al.   SCIENCE

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

(2016) T. Wernberg et al.   SCIENCE

Greening of the Earth and its drivers

(2016) Zaichun Zhu et al.   Nature Climate Change

Mapping climatic mechanisms likely to favour the emergence of novel communities

(2016) Alejandro Ordonez et al.   Nature Climate Change

An evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM for modeling California's climate

(2016) Xingying Huang et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

(2015) Ed Hawkins et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

(2015) Dorothea Frank et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The Influence of Chronic Ozone Exposure on Global Carbon and Water Cycles

(2015) D. Lombardozzi et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

(2015) W. Steffen et al.   SCIENCE

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world’s ocean

(2015) Benjamin S. Halpern et al.   Nature Communications

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

(2015) W. Matt Jolly et al.   Nature Communications

Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology

(2015) Robert Buitenwerf et al.   Nature Climate Change

Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification

(2015) Nathaniel D. Mueller et al.   Nature Climate Change

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

(2015) Pete Smith et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

(2015) Jorge García Molinos et al.   Nature Climate Change

Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle

(2014) Yiqi Luo et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota

(2014) Andrew J. Constable et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management

(2014) Edouard L. Davin et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The emerging anthropogenic signal in land–atmosphere carbon-cycle coupling

(2014) Danica Lombardozzi et al.   Nature Climate Change

Human land-use-driven reduction of forest volatiles cools global climate

(2014) Nadine Unger   Nature Climate Change

Land management and land-cover change have impacts of similar magnitude on surface temperature

(2014) Sebastiaan Luyssaert et al.   Nature Climate Change

The Science of Geoengineering

(2013) Ken Caldeira et al.   Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Climate Change Influences on Marine Infectious Diseases: Implications for Management and Society

(2013) Colleen A. Burge et al.   Annual Review of Marine Science

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

(2013) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

(2013) A. B. Hollowed et al.   ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE

Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

(2013) J. Keith Moore et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

(2013) Pierre Friedlingstein et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise

(2013) Trevor F. Keenan et al.   NATURE

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

(2013) Jacob Schewe et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

(2013) Cynthia Rosenzweig et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Global imprint of climate change on marine life

(2013) Elvira S. Poloczanska et al.   Nature Climate Change

Effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on biogeochemical and biogeophysical MODIS products

(2013) Benjamin C. Bright et al.   Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan

(2012) Lynn M. Russell et al.   AMBIO

Interactive Crop Management in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal Influences on Land–Atmosphere Fluxes

(2012) Samuel Levis et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Determining Robust Impacts of Land-Use-Induced Land Cover Changes on Surface Climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the First Set of LUCID Experiments

(2012) Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Summertime climate response to mountain pine beetle disturbance in British Columbia

(2012) H. Maness et al.   Nature Geoscience

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen

(2012) R. W. Pinder et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate

(2012) Clara Deser et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

(2011) Scott C. Doney et al.   Annual Review of Marine Science

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

(2011) G. C. Hurtt et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Time of emergence of climate signals

(2011) E. Hawkins et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Simulating coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics following mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States

(2011) Steven L. Edburg et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Modeling Diverse Communities of Marine Microbes

(2010) Michael J. Follows et al.   Annual Review of Marine Science

EC-Earth

(2010) Wilco Hazeleger et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

(2010) PAUL WASSMANN et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Quantification of the Feedback between Phytoplankton and ENSO in the Community Climate System Model

(2010) Markus Jochum et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

(2010) Richard H. Moss et al.   NATURE

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

(2010) Charles A. Stock et al.   PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY

The Impact of Climate Change on the World's Marine Ecosystems

(2010) O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al.   SCIENCE

The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions

(2009) Ed Hawkins et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Decadal Prediction

(2009) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

(2009) Craig D. Allen et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Impacts of increasing anthropogenic soluble iron and nitrogen deposition on ocean biogeochemistry

(2009) Aparna Krishnamurthy et al.   GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Decadal variability in North Atlantic phytoplankton blooms

(2009) Stephanie A. Henson et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

A safe operating space for humanity

(2009) Johan Rockström et al.   NATURE

Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink

(2009) Lina M. Mercado et al.   NATURE

Trait-Based Community Ecology of Phytoplankton

(2008) Elena Litchman et al.   Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics

Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change

(2008) W. A. Kurz et al.   NATURE