Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints

Sensitivity of Global Warming to Carbon Emissions: Effects of Heat and Carbon Uptake in a Suite of Earth System Models

(2017) Richard G. Williams et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C

(2017) Richard J. Millar et al.   Nature Geoscience

A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

(2017) Johan Rockström et al.   SCIENCE

Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks

(2017) Kyle C. Armour   Nature Climate Change

A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes

(2017) Philip Goodwin et al.   Earths Future

Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015

(2017) Lijing Cheng et al.   Science Advances

How historic simulation–observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble

(2016) Philip Goodwin   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A framework to understand the transient climate response to emissions

(2016) Richard G Williams et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Dependence of global radiative feedbacks on evolving patterns of surface heat fluxes

(2016) Maria A. A. Rugenstein et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period

(2016) J. M. Gregory et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

(2016) Joeri Rogelj et al.   NATURE

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models

(2015) Doug M. Smith et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons

(2015) Boyin Huang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

(2014) Daniel Williamson et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake

(2014) Philip Goodwin et al.   Nature Geoscience

Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity

(2014) Drew T. Shindell   Nature Climate Change

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

(2013) J.-L. Dufresne et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations*

(2013) Nathan P. Gillett et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Twenty-First-Century Compatible CO2Emissions and Airborne Fraction Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models under Four Representative Concentration Pathways

(2013) Chris Jones et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

(2013) J. Keith Moore et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4

(2013) Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

(2013) Marco A. Giorgetta et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates

(2013) Simon A. Good et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS

NOAA's Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis

(2012) Russell S. Vose et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010

(2012) S. Levitus et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake and Validation for CMIP5 AOGCMs

(2012) O. Geoffroy et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part II: Carbon System Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics*

(2012) John P. Dunne et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks

(2012) Kyle C. Armour et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

(2012)   NATURE

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

(2011) Malte Meinshausen et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

(2011) V. K. Arora et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

El Niño variability in simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), 1871–2008

(2011) Benjamin S. Giese et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE

(2010) J. Hansen et al.   REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS

Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change

(2009) Michael Winton et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections

(2009) Masayoshi Ishii et al.   JOURNAL OF OCEANOGRAPHY

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

(2009) H. Damon Matthews et al.   NATURE

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

(2009) Myles R. Allen et al.   NATURE

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C

(2009) Malte Meinshausen et al.   NATURE

Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006)

(2008) Thomas M. Smith et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)

(2008) James A. Carton et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

(2008) Catia M. Domingues et al.   NATURE

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes

(2008) Reto Knutti et al.   Nature Geoscience