Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US

(2016) David E. Rupp et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

A comparison of U.S. precipitation extremes under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 with an application of pattern scaling

(2016) Miranda J. Fix et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

(2016) Helen R. Sofaer et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses

(2016) Afshin Pourmokhtarian et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States

(2016) Lauren E Parker et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Community-wide changes in intertaxonomic temporal co-occurrence resulting from phenological shifts

(2016) Fangyuan Hua et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia

(2016) Natalie J. Briscoe et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions

(2016) Philip W. Boyd et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited

(2016) Matthew Newman et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

(2016) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling of precipitation extremes over a large domain

(2016) C. Bracken et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Detecting failure of climate predictions

(2016) Michael C. Runge et al.   Nature Climate Change

The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes

(2016) Andreas F. Prein et al.   Nature Climate Change

Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models

(2016) E. M. Fischer et al.   Nature Climate Change

Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital details of climate change

(2016) Simone Fatichi et al.   Earths Future

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

(2016) Tongli Wang et al.   PLoS One

Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability

(2015) Diego P. Vázquez et al.   BIOLOGICAL REVIEWS

Understanding ENSO Diversity

(2015) Antonietta Capotondi et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Experiments to confront the environmental extremes of climate change

(2015) Zachary E Kayler et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

(2015) Julie A. Vano et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Artificial amplification of warming trends across the mountains of the western United States

(2015) Jared W. Oyler et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014

(2015) A. Park Williams et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments

(2015) Alan K. Knapp et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

(2015) Dorothea Frank et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events

(2015) Liam D. Bailey et al.   JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY

Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?

(2015) Alex J. Cannon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change*

(2015) David W. Pierce et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

(2015) Michela Pacifici et al.   Nature Climate Change

Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes

(2015) E. M. Fischer et al.   Nature Climate Change

Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought

(2014) M. Susan Moran et al.   ECOLOGY

Resistance and resilience of a grassland ecosystem to climate extremes

(2014) David L. Hoover et al.   ECOLOGY

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

(2014) Philip K Thornton et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Creating a topoclimatic daily air temperature dataset for the conterminous United States using homogenized station data and remotely sensed land skin temperature

(2014) Jared W. Oyler et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Impacts of 21st-Century Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

(2014) Ingrid M. Tohver et al.   JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

(2014) Valerie Steen et al.   PLoS One

Climatic indices for determining risks to the distribution and maintenance of Quercus emoryi Torr. (Fagaceae) in Mexico

(2014) Maria de Jesus Torres-Meza et al.   RANGELAND JOURNAL

Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change and Their Implications for Biodiversity

(2014) R. A. Garcia et al.   SCIENCE

An intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods used for water resource assessments in the United States

(2014) Ethan Gutmann et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Recent geographic convergence in diurnal and annual temperature cycling flattens global thermal profiles

(2014) George Wang et al.   Nature Climate Change

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

(2013) H. Bellenger et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Interrogating empirical-statistical downscaling

(2013) B. C. Hewitson et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions

(2013) AMY K. SNOVER et al.   CONSERVATION BIOLOGY

bioclim: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most currentMaxEntstudies

(2013) Trevor H. Booth et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

(2013) Erik J Nelson et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States

(2013) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE

Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Results from CMIP5 Models

(2013) Enrico Scoccimarro et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States: Update and Extensions

(2013) Ben Livneh et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology*

(2013) Justin Sheffield et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*

(2013) Clara Deser et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

(2013) Camilo Mora et al.   NATURE

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

(2013) Jón Einar Jónsson et al.   PLoS One

Community-level phenological response to climate change

(2013) O. Ovaskainen et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

(2012) S. Fatichi et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

(2012) Jeffrey M Diez et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models

(2012) T. R. Ault et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980-2009)

(2012) Jennifer K. Balch et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The invasion of plant communities following extreme weather events under ambient and elevated temperature

(2012) Christine S. Sheppard et al.   PLANT ECOLOGY

Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change

(2012) Allen H. Hurlbert et al.   PLoS One

Climate and Weather Impact Timing of Emergence of Bats

(2012) Winifred F. Frick et al.   PLoS One

Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress

(2012) William R. L. Anderegg et al.   Nature Climate Change

Stochastic weather generators for climate-change downscaling, part II: multivariable and spatially coherent multisite downscaling

(2012) Daniel S. Wilks   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Evaluating IPCC AR4 cool-season precipitation simulations and projections for impacts assessment over North America

(2011) Stephanie A. McAfee et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events, not climate means, in species distribution models

(2011) Brooke L. Bateman et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Time of emergence of climate signals

(2011) E. Hawkins et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications

(2011) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Relative importance of weather and climate on wildfire growth in interior Alaska

(2011) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE

An ecological perspective on extreme climatic events: a synthetic definition and framework to guide future research

(2011) Melinda D. Smith   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

(2011) Seung-Ki Min et al.   NATURE

The Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North American Cordillera

(2011) Gregory T. Pederson et al.   SCIENCE

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity

(2011) Sean M. McMahon et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

(2011) Jeremy S. Littell et al.   Ecosphere

Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

(2010) Clara Deser et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

(2010) P. C. D. Milly et al.   Earth Interactions

Temperate flowering phenology

(2010) F. Tooke et al.   JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL BOTANY

Dreary state of precipitation in global models

(2010) Graeme L. Stephens et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming

(2010) Michael E. Dillon et al.   NATURE

Weather, Not Climate, Defines Distributions of Vagile Bird Species

(2010) April E. Reside et al.   PLoS One

Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century

(2010) O. Pechony et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Phenology Under Global Warming

(2010) C. Korner et al.   SCIENCE

The Impact of Climate Change on the World's Marine Ecosystems

(2010) O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al.   SCIENCE

Use of stochastic weathergenerators for precipitation downscaling

(2010) Daniel S. Wilks   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves

(2009) A. E. McKechnie et al.   Biology Letters

Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916–2003

(2009) Jeremy S. Littell et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

How frequent storms affect wetland vegetation: a preview of climate-change impacts

(2009) Joy B Zedler   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Effects of drought on avian community structure

(2009) THOMAS P. ALBRIGHT et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models

(2009) Reto Knutti et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

(2009) C. Carey   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change

(2009) P. A. O'Gorman et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

(2009) N. E. Zimmermann et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Vegetation Responses to Extreme Hydrological Events: Sequence Matters

(2008) ShiLi Miao et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes

(2008) Erich M. Fischer et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PHENOLOGY, FROST DAMAGE, AND FLORAL ABUNDANCE OF MONTANE WILDFLOWERS

(2008) David W. Inouye   ECOLOGY

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

(2008) C. A. Deutsch et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA