Drivers for energy consumption: A comparative analysis of China and India

China and India accounted for two-thirds of the World's rise in energy use between 2000 and 2012. This paper aimed to calculate the P (population)-A (affluence)-T (technology) effects of energy use in China and India - the world's two most populous and largest developing countries. To this end, a combination of the IPAT method and the logarithmic mean divisia index technique, and annual time-series data on population, energy consumption, and gross domestic product during 1970-2012 are used. In China, a 12.53-fold growth of energy use emissions from 1970 to 2012 is driven by a combination of rapid growth in individual income and slow growth in population, with offset by technological advancement since 1980. The accelerating rise in energy use since 2000 is a result of accelerating growth rates in individual income and a reversal of earlier declining in energy intensity (technological advancement). Unlike China, the long-term rise in energy use exceeded the long-term rise in individual income in India. In addition, a strong trend of decline in energy intensity has not yet occurred in India. Thus, a 7.39-folds growth of Indian energy use for 1970-2012 was a result of relatively rapid increase in population and relatively slow increase in income, without effective offset by technological advancement It suggests that market oriented economic and energy reforms need to send the correct price signal to promote energy-efficient technologies thus improving energy efficiency, which is the key to a sustainable energy future in China and India. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.