Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

(2023) Seaver Wang et al.   REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS

Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s

(2022) Chris A. Boulton et al.   Nature Climate Change

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

(2022) David I. Armstrong McKay et al.   SCIENCE

Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

(2022) Nico Wunderling et al.   Nature Climate Change

Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

(2021) Chen Zhou et al.   Nature Climate Change

How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere?

(2021) Katharyn A. Duffy et al.   Science Advances

Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

(2021) Johannes Lohmann et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO2

(2021) C. Terrer et al.   NATURE

Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate

(2021) Paul D. L. Ritchie et al.   NATURE

Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

(2021) Niklas Boers et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

(2021) Niklas Boers   Nature Climate Change

Higher than expected CO 2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

(2020) Vanessa Haverd et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading

(2020) Zeke Hausfather et al.   NATURE

Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

(2020) Wannes Hubau et al.   NATURE

RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions

(2020) Christopher R. Schwalm et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

(2020) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   Science Advances

CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming

(2020) Chris Huntingford et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

(2020) Julius Garbe et al.   NATURE

Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

(2020) Arie Staal et al.   Nature Communications

Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

(2020) Songhan Wang et al.   SCIENCE

Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models

(2019) Maria Rugenstein et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

(2019) Timothy M. Lenton et al.   NATURE

Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis

(2018) Jan C Minx et al.   Environmental Research Letters

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

(2018) Arnulf Grubler et al.   Nature Energy

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

(2018) L. Caesar et al.   NATURE

Post-drought decline of the Amazon carbon sink

(2018) Yan Yang et al.   Nature Communications

Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble

(2017) Chris A. Boulton et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

(2017) Keywan Riahi et al.   GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

(2016) C D Jones et al.   Environmental Research Letters

The trouble with negative emissions

(2016) K. Anderson et al.   SCIENCE

Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

(2016) Peter U. Clark et al.   Nature Climate Change

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

(2015) Pete Smith et al.   Nature Climate Change

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

(2014) Chris A. Boulton et al.   Nature Communications

Betting on negative emissions

(2014) Sabine Fuss et al.   Nature Climate Change

Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change

(2013) Chris Huntingford et al.   Nature Geoscience

Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system

(2012) P. Ashwin et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions^|^mdash;An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 1: Examination of the traditional stabilization concept

(2012) Taroh MATSUNO et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE JAPAN ACADEMY SERIES B-PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

(2011) Malte Meinshausen et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport

(2011) E. Hawkins et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Committed climate warming

(2010) H. Damon Matthews et al.   Nature Geoscience

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

(2009) Chris Jones et al.   Nature Geoscience

Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions

(2008) H. Damon Matthews et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes

(2008) Reto Knutti et al.   Nature Geoscience

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

(2008) T. M. Lenton et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA