4.6 Article

A Model of Text for Experimentation in the Social Sciences

Journal

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
Volume 111, Issue 515, Pages 988-1003

Publisher

AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2016.1141684

Keywords

Causal inference; Experimentation; High-dimensional inference; Social sciences; Text analysis; Variational approximation

Funding

  1. Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development [P2-CHD047879]
  2. National Science Foundation [IIS-1149662, IIS-1409177]
  3. Office of Naval Research [YIP N00014-14-1-0485]
  4. Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr
  5. Div Of Information & Intelligent Systems [1409177] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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Statistical models of text have become increasingly popular in statistics and computer science as a method of exploring large document collections. Social scientists often want to move beyond exploration, to measurement and experimentation, and make inference about social and political processes that drive discourse and content. In this article, we develop a model of text data that supports this type of substantive research. Our approach is to posit a hierarchical mixed membership model for analyzing topical content of documents, in which mixing weights are parameterized by observed covariates. In this model, topical prevalence and topical content are specified as a simple generalized linear model on an arbitrary number of document level covariates, such as news source and time of release, enabling researchers to introduce elements of the experimental design that informed document collection into the model, within a generally applicable framework. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing a collection of news reports about China, where we allow the prevalence of topics to evolve over time and vary across newswire services. Our methods quantify the effect of news wire source on both the frequency and nature of topic coverage. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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