Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed

Coronavirus disease 2019: The harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

(2020) John P. A. Ioannidis   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CLINICAL INVESTIGATION

Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic

(2020) Nicholas P. Jewell et al.   JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

COVID-19: PCR screening of asymptomatic health-care workers at London hospital

(2020) Thomas A Treibel et al.   LANCET

Tail risk of contagious diseases

(2020) Pasquale Cirillo et al.   Nature Physics

Wrong but Useful — What Covid-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us

(2020) Inga Holmdahl et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Reduced Rate of Hospital Admissions for ACS during Covid-19 Outbreak in Northern Italy

(2020) Ovidio De Filippo et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19

(2020) Monica Gandhi et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility

(2020) Melissa M. Arons et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

What Other Countries Can Learn From Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic

(2020) Stefania Boccia et al.   JAMA Internal Medicine

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Among Residents and Staff Members of an Independent and Assisted Living Community for Older Adults — Seattle, Washington, 2020

(2020) Alison C. Roxby et al.   MMWR-MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY WEEKLY REPORT

A case study in model failure? COVID-19 daily deaths and ICU bed utilisation predictions in New York state

(2020) Vincent Chin et al.   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto

(2020) Andrea Saltelli et al.   NATURE

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

(2020) Seth Flaxman et al.   NATURE

Should governments continue lockdown to slow the spread of covid-19?

(2020) Edward R Melnick et al.   BMJ-British Medical Journal

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

(2020) John P.A. Ioannidis et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

Effectiveness of personal protective measures in reducing pandemic influenza transmission: A systematic review and meta-analysis

(2017) Patrick Saunders-Hastings et al.   Epidemics

Clinical Impact of Human Coronaviruses 229E and OC43 Infection in Diverse Adult Populations

(2013) E. E. Walsh et al.   JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES