On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables

Immediate and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delivery of surgical services

(2020) K. Søreide et al.   BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY

Tail risk of contagious diseases

(2020) Pasquale Cirillo et al.   Nature Physics

Pulmonary Vascular Endothelialitis, Thrombosis, and Angiogenesis in Covid-19

(2020) Maximilian Ackermann et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Managing COVID-19 spread with voluntary public-health measures: Sweden as a case study for pandemic control

(2020) Shina C L Kamerlin et al.   CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed

(2020) John P.A. Ioannidis et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

Evaluating gambles using dynamics

(2016) O. Peters et al.   CHAOS

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts

(2016) Pasquale Cirillo et al.   PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

Expected shortfall estimation for apparently infinite-mean models of operational risk

(2016) Pasquale Cirillo et al.   QUANTITATIVE FINANCE

The long-term impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome on pulmonary function, exercise capacity and health status

(2010) Jenny C. NGAI et al.   RESPIROLOGY