Potential assessment of photovoltaic power generation in China

Accurate assessment of the photovoltaic (PV) power generation potential in China is important for the reduction of carbon emission intensity and the achievement of the goal of Carbon Neutral. This study used a PV power generation potential assessment system based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods to investigate the PV power generation potential in China. Firstly, the high spatial-temporal resolution and high-quality ERA5 data and related technical, geographic, and social factors were used to assess the theoretical power generation and land suitability of PV power generation. Then, the theoretical power generation and land suitability were comprehensively considered to evaluate the PV power generation potential of China in 2015. The results showed that the average suitability score of land in China is 0.1058 and the suitable land for PV power generation is about 993,000 km2 in 2015. The PV power generation potential of China is 131.942 PWh, which is approximately 23 times the electricity demand of China in 2015. The spatial distribution characteristics of PV power generation potential mainly showed a downward trend from northwest to southeast. Meanwhile, there were clear spatial dislocations between the PV power generation potential and the population distribution and electricity demand in China. In areas that accounting for about 75% of the PV potential, population and electricity demand only accounted for about 16% of the total population and total electricity demand in China. Besides, the degree of tapping PV potential in China is not high, and the installed capacity of most provinces in China accounted for no more than 1% of the capacity potential, especially in the PV potential-rich areas.

Automated summary

The study on the assessment of the photovoltaic power generation potential in China reveals a huge potential but low development level, as well as spatial discrepancies between PV potential, population distribution, and electricity demand.