Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication

Negligent killing of scientific concepts: the stationarity case

(2015) Demetris Koutsoyiannis et al.   HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES

Estimating the Uncertainty of Hydrological Predictions through Data-Driven Resampling Techniques

(2015) Anna E. Sikorska et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING

Concepts of Information Content and Likelihood in Parameter Calibration for Hydrological Simulation Models

(2015) Keith Beven et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING

Debates-the future of hydrological sciences: A (common) path forward? Using models and data to learn: A systems theoretic perspective on the future of hydrological science

(2014) Hoshin V. Gupta et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Approximate Bayesian Computation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation: DREAM(ABC)

(2014) Mojtaba Sadegh et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

GLUE: 20 years on

(2013) Keith Beven et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Toward diagnostic model calibration and evaluation: Approximate Bayesian computation

(2013) Jasper A. Vrugt et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

A guide to good practice in modeling semantics for authors and referees

(2013) Keith Beven et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Making science count in government

(2013) Ian Boyd   eLife

Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency

(2012) A. L. Kay et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Causal models as multiple working hypotheses about environmental processes

(2012) Keith Beven   COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE

So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy

(2012) Keith Beven   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence

(2012) Jeffrey Neal et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall, river discharge and water quality

(2012) Hilary McMillan et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

How might climate change affect river flows across the Thames Basin? An area-wide analysis using the UKCP09 Regional Climate Model ensemble

(2012) V.A. Bell et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and approximate Bayesian computation: What's the connection?

(2012) David J. Nott et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Comment on “Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling” by P. Clark et al.

(2012) Keith Beven et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems

(2012) Alberto Montanari et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision-making for water management under uncertainty

(2011) KEITH J. BEVEN et al.   FRESHWATER BIOLOGY

I believe in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the future?

(2011) Keith Beven   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

On red herrings and real herrings: disinformation and information in hydrological inference

(2011) Keith Beven et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Processes influencing model-data mismatch in drought-stressed, fire-disturbed eddy flux sites

(2011) Stephen Mitchell et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

(2011) Martyn P. Clark et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Uncertainty management strategies: Lessons from the regional implementation of the Water Framework Directive in the Netherlands

(2010) G.T. Raadgever et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD

(2010) H. L. Cloke et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Preferential flows and travel time distributions: defining adequate hypothesis tests for hydrological process models

(2010) Keith J. Beven   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Stage-discharge uncertainty derived with a non-stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River, Honduras

(2010) I. Westerberg et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

There are no hydrological monsters, just models and observations with large uncertainties!

(2010) George Kuczera et al.   HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES

A formal likelihood function for parameter and predictive inference of hydrologic models with correlated, heteroscedastic, and non-Gaussian errors

(2010) Gerrit Schoups et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors

(2010) Benjamin Renard et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Visualization approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information

(2010) D. Leedal et al.   Journal of Flood Risk Management

Towards a limits of acceptability approach to the calibration of hydrological models: Extending observation error

(2009) Yanli Liu et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

A limits of acceptability approach to model evaluation and uncertainty estimation in flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation: Skalka catchment, Czech Republic

(2009) Sarka Blazkova et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Informal likelihood measures in model assessment: Theoretic development and investigation

(2008) Paul Smith et al.   ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES

Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making

(2008) J.C. Ascough et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

On doing better hydrological science

(2008) Keith Beven   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Undermining the science or undermining Nature?

(2008) Bellie Sivakumar   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

(2008) Sarah Dean et al.   STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT

Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

(2008) Jasper A. Vrugt et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Appraisal of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method

(2008) Jery R. Stedinger et al.   WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH