Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda

Viewpoint: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

(2018) Katja Grace et al.   JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH

Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

(2017) Pavel Atanasov et al.   MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity

(2016) Ville A. Satopää et al.   JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

Communicating likelihoods and probabilities in forecasts of volcanic eruptions

(2014) Emma E.H. Doyle et al.   JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

(2013) Béla Nagy et al.   PLoS One

Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles-lessons from numerical weather prediction

(2012) Elisabeth M. Stephens et al.   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Developing a Research Agenda for The American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons

(2011) Caroline G. Burt et al.   DISEASES OF THE COLON & RECTUM

Development of a Clinical Research Agenda for Acute Kidney Injury Using an International, Interdisciplinary, Three-Step Modified Delphi Process

(2008) J. A. Kellum et al.   Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology

Delphi process yielded consensus on terminology and research agenda for therapeutic footwear for neuropathic foot

(2008) Rutger Dahmen et al.   JOURNAL OF CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY