Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

(2015) Kevin Cowtan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Separating Internal Variability from the Externally Forced Climate Response

(2015) Leela M. Frankcombe et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations

(2015) Gerard D. McCarthy et al.   NATURE

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

(2015) T. R. Karl et al.   SCIENCE

Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

(2015) Byron A. Steinman et al.   SCIENCE

Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

(2015) Aiguo Dai et al.   Nature Climate Change

Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability

(2014) J. García-Serrano et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO

(2014) Michael E. Mann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Reconciling warming trends

(2014) Gavin A. Schmidt et al.   Nature Geoscience

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature

(2014) Benjamin D. Santer et al.   Nature Geoscience

Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase

(2014) James S. Risbey et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming

(2014) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   Nature Climate Change

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

(2014) Matthew H. England et al.   Nature Climate Change

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

(2013) Gerald A. Meehl et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

An Empirical Benchmark for Decadal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

(2013) Matthew Newman   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

(2013) Yu Kosaka et al.   NATURE

Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

(2013) F. J. Doblas-Reyes et al.   Nature Communications

Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade

(2013) Virginie Guemas et al.   Nature Climate Change

An apparent hiatus in global warming?

(2013) Kevin E. Trenberth et al.   Earths Future

Global temperature evolution 1979–2010

(2011) Grant Foster et al.   Environmental Research Letters

The Generalized Discrimination Score for Ensemble Forecasts

(2011) Andreas P. Weigel et al.   MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

Smoothing of climate time series revisited

(2008) Michael E. Mann   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

(2008) N. S. Keenlyside et al.   NATURE