Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories

Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework

(2021) Ross D Booton et al.   BMJ Open

Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2

(2020) Yang Liu et al.   LANCET

Economic Evaluation of Sequences of Biological Treatments for Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Methotrexate in France

(2020) Salah Ghabri et al.   VALUE IN HEALTH

Pandemic Surge Models in the Time of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2: Wrong or Useful?

(2020) John B. Wong   ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE

Estimating the Maximum Capacity of COVID-19 Cases Manageable per Day Given a Health Care System's Constrained Resources

(2020) Vasily Giannakeas et al.   ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE

Locally Informed Simulation to Predict Hospital Capacity Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic

(2020) Gary E. Weissman et al.   ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE

Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic

(2020) Nicholas P. Jewell et al.   ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE

The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application

(2020) Stephen A. Lauer et al.   ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE

Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

(2020) Christopher I. Jarvis et al.   BMC Medicine

Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada

(2020) Affan Shoukat et al.   CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada

(2020) Ashleigh R. Tuite et al.   CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries

(2020) Rajiv Chowdhury et al.   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Rapid response infrastructure for pandemic preparedness in a tertiary care hospital: lessons learned from the COVID-19 outbreak in Cologne, Germany, February to March 2020

(2020) Max Augustin et al.   Eurosurveillance

Predictive Mathematical Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic

(2020) Nicholas P. Jewell et al.   JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

(2020) Roy M Anderson et al.   LANCET

Projecting the demand for ventilators at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in the USA

(2020) Chad R Wells et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

(2020) Adam J Kucharski et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Prediction Models — Development, Evaluation, and Clinical Application

(2020) Michael J. Pencina et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Wrong but Useful — What Covid-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us

(2020) Inga Holmdahl et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

(2020) Seyed M. Moghadas et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis in Covid-19

(2020) Matthew Sperrin et al.   BMJ-British Medical Journal

Forecasting COVID-19

(2020) Matjaž Perc et al.   Frontiers in Physics

Simulating the effect of school closure during COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario, Canada

(2020) Elaheh Abdollahi et al.   BMC Medicine

A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

(2020) Gabriel Rainisch et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Pathophysiology, Transmission, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

(2020) W. Joost Wiersinga et al.   JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

Modeling the effects of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission dynamics

(2020) Deanna M. Kennedy et al.   JOURNAL OF CLINICAL VIROLOGY

Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study

(2020) Efthimios Kaxiras et al.   JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH

Dynamics and Development of the COVID-19 Epidemics in the US: a Compartmental Model with Deep Learning Enhancement (Preprint)

(2020) QI DENG   JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INTERNET RESEARCH

Association between mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission in the USA: a mathematical modelling study

(2020) Hamada S Badr et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

(2020) Adam J Kucharski et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

(2020) Seth Flaxman et al.   NATURE

A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France

(2020) Nicolas Hoertel et al.   NATURE MEDICINE

The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19

(2020) Andrea L. Bertozzi et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Leveraging DICE (Discretely-Integrated Condition Event) Simulation to Simplify the Design and Implementation of Hybrid Models

(2020) J. Jaime Caro et al.   VALUE IN HEALTH

Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices

(2020) Joe Hilton et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

(2020) Andrew Clark et al.   Lancet Global Health

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

(2020) Nicholas G Davies et al.   Lancet Public Health

Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France

(2020) Lionel Roques et al.   Frontiers in Medicine

Transmission‐dynamics models for the SARS Coronavirus‐2

(2020) James Holland Jones et al.   AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY

COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions

(2020) Petrônio C.L. Silva et al.   CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS

The susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed (SUC) epidemic model for estimating unidentified infected population for COVID-19

(2020) Chaeyoung Lee et al.   CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS

Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics

(2020) Peipei Wang et al.   CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS

COVID-19 pandemic and Farr’s law: A global comparison and prediction of outbreak acceleration and deceleration rates

(2020) Kevin Pacheco-Barrios et al.   PLoS One

COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s)

(2020) Samuel Soubeyrand et al.   PLoS One

Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

(2020) T. Alex Perkins et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2

(2020) Ze-Yu Zhao et al.   Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Cooking Up a Transparent Model Following a DICE Recipe

(2019) Jörgen Möller   PHARMACOECONOMICS

Validation of a DICE Simulation Against a Discrete Event Simulation Implemented Entirely in Code

(2017) Jörgen Möller et al.   PHARMACOECONOMICS

Discretely Integrated Condition Event (DICE) Simulation for Pharmacoeconomics

(2016) J. Jaime Caro   PHARMACOECONOMICS

Surge Capacity Principles

(2014) John L. Hick et al.   CHEST

Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6

(2012) Andrew H. Briggs et al.   VALUE IN HEALTH

Model Transparency and Validation: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-7

(2012) David M. Eddy et al.   VALUE IN HEALTH