Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures

Calibrating experts’ probabilistic assessments for improved probabilistic predictions

(2019) A.M. Hanea et al.   SAFETY SCIENCE

Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management

(2018) Victoria Hemming et al.   PLoS One

A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem

(2017) Dražen Prelec et al.   NATURE

Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment

(2017) Abigail R. Colson et al.   RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

Logistic Regression

(2016) Juliana Tolles et al.   JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

A note on the use of empirical AUC for evaluating probabilistic forecasts

(2016) Simon Byrne   Electronic Journal of Statistics

Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

(2014) D. R. Mandel et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Harnessing the wisdom of the inner crowd

(2014) Stefan M. Herzog et al.   TRENDS IN COGNITIVE SCIENCES

Forecast aggregation via recalibration

(2013) Brandon M. Turner et al.   MACHINE LEARNING

The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model

(2013) Justin W. Eggstaff et al.   RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

Tapping into the Wisdom of the Crowd--with Confidence

(2012) R. Hertwig   SCIENCE

When Are Two Heads Better than One and Why?

(2012) A. Koriat   SCIENCE

Structured elicitation of expert judgments for threatened species assessment: a case study on a continental scale using email

(2012) Marissa F. McBride et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Combining probability forecasts

(2010) Roopesh Ranjan et al.   JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

A route to more tractable expert advice

(2010) Willy Aspinall   NATURE

A study of expert overconfidence

(2007) Shi-Woei Lin et al.   RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY