Comprehensive analysis method of determining global long-term GHG mitigation potential of passenger battery electric vehicles

The development of electric vehicles can help reduce the use of fossil fuels and further mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A comprehensive method is proposed for estimating the GHG mitigation potential of passenger battery electric vehicles (PBEVs) continentally and globally, considering the electricity consumption, energy transition, and other main influencing factors. The future energy transition is considered to change the electricity generation structures, improve the share of clean power, and further increase the GHG mitigation potential of electric vehicles based on a life-cycle analysis. An uncertainty analysis is performed to investigate the main influencing factors, such as energy intensity, battery size, autonomous vehicles, charging infrastructure, carpooling and ridesharing, and the development of other competitive vehicles on the electricity consumption and mitigation potential. Results show that the global stock of PBEVs will reach 1.2 x 10(8) and 1.0 x 10(9) vehicles in 2030 and 2050, respectively, and the global electricity consumption will be 250-480 TWh in 2030 and 1140-2840 TWh in 2050, equivalent of saving 3.4-6.5 x 10(8) barrel of gasoline in 2030 and 1.6-3.9 x 10(9) barrel of gasoline in 2050. The calculated global GHG mitigation potentials of PBEVs are 40-215 Mt CO(2)e and 340-1380 Mt CO(2)e in 2030 and 2050, respectively, which will accelerate the decarbonization transition in the transport sector and help achieve the global temperature control goals in the Paris Agreement and sustainable development goals. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The development of electric vehicles can reduce fossil fuel use and GHG emissions, with future energy transition increasing the potential of electric vehicles for GHG mitigation. The global adoption of electric vehicles will contribute to achieving global temperature control goals and sustainable development targets.