4.6 Article

Google Trends Data and COVID-19 in Europe: Correlations and model enhancement are European wide

Journal

TRANSBOUNDARY AND EMERGING DISEASES
Volume 68, Issue 4, Pages 2610-2615

Publisher

WILEY-HINDAWI
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13887

Keywords

COVID-19; Google Trends; model; SARS-CoV-2; surveillance

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The study demonstrates the importance of using Internet search data in disease modelling, especially when analyzing data across multiple countries. The significant positive correlations between search data and incident case numbers suggest the potential for improving disease modelling through the integration of search data.
The current COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique opportunity to examine the utility of Internet search data in disease modelling across multiple countries. Most such studies typically examine trends within only a single country, with few going beyond describing the relationship between search data patterns and disease occurrence. Google Trends data (GTD) indicating the volume of Internet searching on 'coronavirus' were obtained for a range of European countries along with corresponding incident case numbers. Significant positive correlations between GTD with incident case numbers occurred across European countries, with the strongest correlations being obtained using contemporaneous data for most countries. GTD was then integrated into a distributed lag model; this improved model quality for both the increasing and decreasing epidemic phases. These results show the utility of Internet search data in disease modelling, with possible implications for cross country analysis.

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