4.7 Article

Key determinants and heterogeneous frailties in passenger loyalty toward customized buses: An empirical investigation of the subscription termination hazard of users

Journal

Publisher

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2020.102636

Keywords

Demand responsive bus; Subscription behavior; User loyalty; Demand evolution; Shared frailty model

Funding

  1. China Scholarship Council
  2. National Natural Science Foundation of China [51378091, 71871043]
  3. National Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province, China [20170540187]
  4. Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [DUT18GJ204]

Ask authors/readers for more resources

Long-term passenger subscription is vital to the survival and operation of the customized bus (CB) system, which is a demand-driven and user-oriented transit service. A better understanding of passenger loyalty toward the CB service will help provide better operation. The urgent and outstanding issue is how to incorporate the unobserved heterogeneity in loyalty-in other words, how to reflect the effects of the frailty to terminate subscription. This study fills the research gap through an empirical study in Dalian, China. Three different survival models are developed to investigate the mechanism of subscription behaviors, among which the shared frailty model considering the unobserved heterogeneity is demonstrated to be the most appropriate. The results indicate that the historical purchase characteristics are the most important to CB user loyalty modeling and forecasting. Males are more sensitive than females to the number of intermediate stations because of the potentially increased uncertainty in waiting time related to the intermediate stations. The heterogenous frailties resulting from the heterogeneity of the perceptible service quality in terms of convenience and efficiency in subscribing/returning tickets and information availability in the progress of the CB system significantly contribute to user loyalty deviations.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.7
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Engineering, Civil

Joint modeling of mode choice and travel distance with intra-household interactions

Shasha Liu, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Enjian Yao

Summary: Research has found that the choices of travel mode and distance are not independent decisions, as individuals usually consider the preferences and needs of other household members. The dependency between mode choice and travel distance is influenced by unobserved factors. Walk mode choice is more dependent on travel distance compared to other travel modes, and the correlation between mode choice and travel distance is higher in complex individual tours. Ignoring this dependency or not considering intra-household interactions may lead to over- or under-estimation of the effects of changes in exogenous variables.

TRANSPORTATION (2023)

Article Transportation

Grey wolf optimizer-based machine learning algorithm to predict electric vehicle charging duration time

Irfan Ullah, Kai Liu, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Md Shafiullah, Arshad Jamal

Summary: This study predicts the charging time of electric vehicles using machine learning algorithms and optimizes the algorithm parameters to improve accuracy and robustness. The results show that machine learning models based on the gray wolf optimizer perform better in predicting charging time.

TRANSPORTATION LETTERS-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH (2023)

Article Engineering, Civil

Exploring the Impact of Spatiotemporal Granularity on the Demand Prediction of Dynamic Ride-Hailing

Kai Liu, Zhiju Chen, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Liheng Tuo

Summary: This paper investigates the issue of demand prediction in ride-hailing dispatching and proposes a method based on a convolutional long short-term memory model combined with a hexagonal convolution operation. Experimental analysis using empirical data for Chengdu, China shows that the proposed approach outperforms conventional methods in terms of prediction accuracy. The comparison of 36 spatiotemporal granularities reveals that a hexagonal spatial partition with an 800 m side length and a 30 min time interval achieves the best comprehensive prediction accuracy, although departure demands and arrival demands exhibit different variation trends in prediction errors for various spatiotemporal granularities.

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (2023)

Article Environmental Studies

Exploring the nonlinear effects of built environment characteristics on customized bus service

Jiangbo Wang, Xinyu (Jason) Cao, Kai Liu, De Wang

Summary: The high failure rate of demand-responsive transit (DRT) systems indicates that DRT services are only feasible in selected areas. However, there have been few studies that quantitatively examine the impact of built environment characteristics on DRT use. This study uses gradient boosting decision trees to analyze the data of customized bus service (CBS, a type of DRT) in Dalian, and investigates the nonlinear relationship between the built environment and CBS use while controlling for demographics and service features. The study finds that local accessibility at the residence and workplace are the most important factors influencing CBS use, followed by the proximity of the workplace to bus stops. Some built environment variables have different impacts on CBS use compared to traditional transit observed in the literature. Additionally, the study identifies threshold associations between built environment variables and CBS use, providing guidance for efficient CBS system design.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Engineering, Civil

Bicycle Accident Risk Factors for Different Age Groups in Nagoya, Japan

Meilan Jiang, Hitomi Sato, Xiaoshu Diao, Ghasak I. M. A. Mothafer, Toshiyuki Yamamoto

Summary: This study investigates the influence factors of bicycle accidents for different age groups in traffic analysis zones using a multivariate Poisson gamma mixture model. The results show that children are more likely to have accidents in residential areas, while young and adult groups have more accidents in areas with many companies. All age groups are more prone to accidents in areas with many shops. The elderly group is greatly affected by both the number of bicycle trips and spatial spillover effect, making them the most susceptible to bicycle accidents among all age groups.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD (2023)

Article Transportation

Longitudinal analysis of public transport usage by older people using a latent Markov model

Shasha Liu, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Toshiyuki Nakamura

Summary: Understanding trends in public transport usage by older people over the years is important for the long-term planning and development of age-friendly public transport. Using six years of smartcard transaction data from Shizuoka, Japan, a latent Markov model is developed to analyze the evolution of public transport usage by older people. The results suggest that age, gender, and residential built environment influence trends in public transport usage by older adults, and there are five latent states for older men and women, respectively, demonstrating the existence of unobserved heterogeneity.

TRANSPORTATION LETTERS-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH (2023)

Article Transportation

Built environment as a precondition for demand-responsive transit (DRT) system survival: Evidence from an empirical study

Jiangbo Wang, Kai Liu, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, De Wang, Guoxu Lu

Summary: This study empirically explores the impact of the built environment on demand-responsive transit (DRT) use through a case study of a successful DRT system in Dalian, China. The results suggest that factors such as residential population, employment density, land use composition, connectivity, and accessibility contribute to DRT use. The findings highlight the potential marketing direction for DRT systems in serving niche markets poorly served by regular transit services.

TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR AND SOCIETY (2023)

Article Engineering, Civil

Optimal Deployment of Electric Vehicles' Fast-Charging Stations

Irfan Ullah, Kai Liu, Safa Bhar Layeb, Alessandro Severino, Arshad Jamal

Summary: As climate change continues to be a pressing concern, promoting the usage of electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a popular response to the pollution caused by fossil-fuel automobiles. Locating and sizing fast-charging stations in existing fuel/gas stations in urban areas can play a crucial role in encouraging people to adopt EVs. This paper presents a model for optimally locating a fast-charging station in an existing gas station in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, taking into consideration real-world constraints, investment cost, and EV users' convenience cost.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION (2023)

Article Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

Optimal Location of Emergency Facility Sites for Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation under Uncertain Conditions

Yu Wang, Jing Wang, Jialiang Chen, Kai Liu

Summary: This paper proposes an emergency facility location model for the railway dangerous-goods transportation problem. The model is based on an ellipsoidal robust model and introduces a robust control safety parameter to measure the risk preferences of decision makers. It finds the solution for siting emergency facilities when the time and location of emergency events are unknown by limiting the range of uncertain demand, uncertain service, and safety parameters. The model is solved using a genetic algorithm and real data, and a comprehensive analysis of the solution results demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the model under different maximum overcoverages.

APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL (2023)

Article Transportation

Modeling of machine learning with SHAP approach for electric vehicle charging station choice behavior prediction

Irfan Ullah, Kai Liu, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Muhammad Zahid, Arshad Jamal

Summary: Growing electric mobility poses challenges to the charging adequacy of electric vehicles (EVs) due to limited charging infrastructure capacities. This study utilizes an interpretable machine learning framework to predict EVs' charging station choice behavior, with the XGBoost model achieving the highest accuracy in prediction. It also employs the newly developed SHAP approach to identify feature importance and the effects of different attributes on charging station choice behavior.

TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR AND SOCIETY (2023)

Article Economics

Seamless air-HSR intermodal solution: Behavioural model-based scheduling of airline timetable and airfare

Ning Huan, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Enjian Yao

Summary: Empirical experience in Europe and China shows that seamless intermodal connections are crucial for expanding the market share of air and high-speed rail (HSR) integration services. However, there are practical obstacles to integrating air and HSR systems. This study proposes a method for improving synchronous operations of air and HSR by unilaterally scheduling airline timetable and airfare. The empirical case study demonstrates that the optimal scheduling solution significantly reduces air-HSR connection time and highlights the importance of efficient shuttle systems, baggage through-check, and flexible ticket services.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE (2023)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Traffic Status Prediction Based on Multidimensional Feature Matching and 2nd-Order Hidden Markov Model (HMM)

Fei Li, Kai Liu, Jialiang Chen

Summary: This research introduces an approach to address the MNAR-type missing data problem in traffic status prediction by utilizing a multidimensional feature sequence and a second-order hidden Markov model. The proposed method is able to accurately predict traffic status by extracting features and introducing specific matching methods.

SUSTAINABILITY (2023)

Article Engineering, Civil

Passenger Flow Path Prediction Based on Urban Rail Transit AFC Data: An Example of Chengdu, China

Yu Wang, Qixuan Qin, Jialiang Chen, Jiangbo Wang, Kai Liu

Summary: This paper uses AFC data from urban rail transit to extract passenger travel patterns and predicts their destinations using data mining models and MNL models. Furthermore, a two-way search algorithm is developed to find the optimal paths and measure their effectiveness. The proposed method is validated with actual data.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION (2023)

Article Transportation Science & Technology

3-Strategy evolutionary game model for operation extensions of subway networks

Yue Zhao, Liujiang Kang, Huijun Sun, Jianjun Wu, Nsabimana Buhigiro

Summary: This study proposes a 2-population 3-strategy evolutionary game model to address the issue of subway network operation extension. The analysis reveals that the rule of maximum total fitness ensures the priority of evolutionary equilibrium strategies, and proper adjustment minutes can enhance the effectiveness of operation extension.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES (2024)

Article Transportation Science & Technology

Integrated optimization of container allocation and yard cranes dispatched under delayed transshipment

Hongtao Hu, Jiao Mob, Lu Zhen

Summary: This study investigates the challenges of daily storage yard management in marine container terminals considering delayed transshipment of containers. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed to minimize various costs associated with transportation and yard management. The improved Benders decomposition algorithm is applied to solve the problem effectively and efficiently.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES (2024)

Article Transportation Science & Technology

Range-constrained traffic assignment for electric vehicles under heterogeneous range anxiety

Zhandong Xu, Yiyang Peng, Guoyuan Li, Anthony Chen, Xiaobo Liu

Summary: This paper studied the impact of range anxiety among electric vehicle drivers on traffic assignment. Two types of range-constrained traffic assignment problems were defined based on discrete or continuous distributed range anxiety. Models and algorithms were proposed to solve the two types of problems. Experimental results showed the superiority of the proposed algorithm and revealed that drivers with heightened range anxiety may cause severe congestion.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES (2024)

Article Transportation Science & Technology

Demand forecasting and predictability identification of ride-sourcing via bidirectional spatial-temporal transformer neural processes

Chuanjia Li, Maosi Geng, Yong Chen, Zeen Cai, Zheng Zhu, Xiqun (Michael) Chen

Summary: Understanding spatial-temporal stochasticity in shared mobility is crucial, and this study introduces the Bi-STTNP prediction model that provides probabilistic predictions and uncertainty estimations for ride-sourcing demand, outperforming conventional deep learning methods. The model captures the multivariate spatial-temporal Gaussian distribution of demand and offers comprehensive uncertainty representations.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES (2024)

Article Transportation Science & Technology

Partial trajectory method to align and validate successive video cameras for vehicle tracking

Benjamin Coifman, Lizhe Li

Summary: This paper develops a partial trajectory method for aligning views from successive fixed cameras in order to ensure high fidelity with the actual vehicle movements. The method operates on the output of vehicle tracking to provide direct feedback and improve alignment quality. Experimental results show that this method can enhance accuracy and increase the number of vehicles in the dataset.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES (2024)

Article Transportation Science & Technology

Dynamic routing for the Electric Vehicle Shortest Path Problem with charging station occupancy information

Mohsen Dastpak, Fausto Errico, Ola Jabali, Federico Malucelli

Summary: This article discusses the problem of an Electric Vehicle (EV) finding the shortest route from an origin to a destination and proposes a problem model that considers the occupancy indicator information of charging stations. A Markov Decision Process formulation is presented to optimize the EV routing and charging policy. A reoptimization algorithm is developed to establish the sequence of charging station visits and charging amounts based on system updates. Results from a comprehensive computational study show that the proposed method significantly reduces waiting times and total trip duration.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES (2024)