Article
Environmental Sciences
Francisco Estrada, Dukpa Kim, Pierre Perron
Summary: Research indicates that observed climate change at the global and hemispheric scales is mainly caused by human factors, with regional surface temperatures rising due to increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing. Current average temperatures are now considered extreme values compared to the mid-20th century, with the adaptation window shortening and projected to decrease significantly in the next few decades.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mingyang Guo, Qianlai Zhuang, Huaxia Yao, Malgorzata Golub, L. Ruby Leung, Zeli Tan
Summary: This study evaluates algorithms for key lake thermal processes and suggests simplified algorithms for predicting turbulent heat fluxes and a dual-algorithm strategy for wind-driven mixing based on lake shape and season. There are no significant differences in simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms. Optimal algorithms for lake ice phenology are determined for different regions. The study provides practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies for global lake thermal regimes.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Marie-Christine Lafreniere, Jean-Francois Lapierre, Dominic E. Ponton, Francois Guillemette, Marc Amyot
Summary: In order to meet the demand for green and digital technologies, the production of rare earth elements (REEs) has increased significantly. However, the fate of REEs in large rivers with various gradients remains poorly understood.
GEOCHIMICA ET COSMOCHIMICA ACTA
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
D. Konig, T. M. Conway, D. S. Hamilton, A. Tagliabue
Summary: This study uses a global ocean biogeochemical model with active Fe isotope cycling to investigate the impact of anthropogenic Fe sources on surface ocean dFe and δFe-56(diss). The results show that the response of dFe, δFe-56(diss), and primary productivity is variable and regulated by the biogeochemical regime, rather than following the footprint of atmospheric deposition. The study also finds that while δFe-56(diss) can trace anthropogenic input, its response is attenuated by fractionation during phytoplankton uptake, but amplified by other isotopically-light Fe sources.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Adrienne J. Sutton, Roman Battisti, Brendan Carter, Wiley Evans, Jan Newton, Simone Alin, Nicholas R. Bates, Wei-Jun Cai, Kim Currie, Richard A. Feely, Christopher Sabine, Toste Tanhua, Bronte Tilbrook, Rik Wanninkhof
Summary: This article discusses the importance of assessing the status of ocean acidification across ocean and coastal waters, emphasizing the importance of best practices for acidification trend analysis in establishing accurate records and communicating the current status of ocean acidification.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Oceanography
Anh L. D. Pham, Takamitsu Ito
Summary: The study shows that the phytoplankton growth in the Indian Ocean is limited by different nutrients in the north and south, and increasing atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and dissolved iron can lead to significant responses from both ecosystems. Results from sensitivity simulations reveal that after a century of anthropogenic deposition, there is uneven ecosystem responses in the Indian Ocean due to competition between phytoplankton communities. The study emphasizes the important role of ecosystem dynamics in controlling carbon fluxes in the Indian Ocean under the impact of anthropogenic nutrient deposition over a centennial timescale.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2021)
Article
Oceanography
Claire Boteler, Michael Dowd, Eric C. J. Oliver, Elias T. Krainski, Douglas W. R. Wallace
Summary: The northwest Atlantic Ocean serves as an important carbon dioxide sink for anthropogenic activities. However, the seasonal variability and lack of comprehensive observations make it challenging to accurately assess temporal variations of carbon in the water column. To address this, a new statistical approach called time series generalization of the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method was used to estimate the temporal trends of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). This approach separated DIC into its seasonal, natural, and anthropogenic components, providing a better understanding of the anthropogenic increase of DIC in the surface waters of the northwest Atlantic Ocean.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jamie D. Wilson, Oliver Andrews, Anna Katavouta, Francisco de Melo Virissimo, Ros M. Death, Markus Adloff, Chelsey A. Baker, Benedict Blackledge, Fraser W. Goldsworth, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Qian Liu, Katie R. Sieradzan, Emily Vosper, Rui Ying
Summary: This study quantifies the future trends in carbon sequestration by the biological carbon pump (BCP) using the latest CMIP6 model projections. The results show that carbon sequestration is expected to increase by 19 to 48 Pg C over the 21st century in the SSP3-7.0 scenario, accounting for 5 to 17% of the total increase in oceanic carbon by 2100. However, export production is projected to decrease globally. The study highlights the importance of considering organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m as a metric for long-term carbon sequestration in future model studies.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jens Daniel Mueller, N. Gruber, B. Carter, R. Feely, M. Ishii, N. Lange, S. K. Lauvset, A. Murata, A. Olsen, F. F. Perez, C. Sabine, T. Tanhua, R. Wanninkhof, D. Zhu
Summary: The ocean acts as a sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, moderating climate change. The storage of CO2 in the global ocean increased by 29 +/- 3 Pg C dec-1 from 1994 to 2004 and by 27 +/- 3 Pg C dec-1 from 2004 to 2014. However, the storage change in the second decade was lower than expected, indicating a reduction in the ocean's sensitivity to CO2 increase. Ocean circulation changes and a decrease in buffer capacity are possible reasons for this reduction. The vulnerability of the ocean carbon sink to climate variability and change is significant.
Article
Ecology
Jody R. Reimer, Frederick R. Adler, Kenneth M. Golden, Akil Narayan
Summary: Uncertainty in parameters in ecological models can be incorporated by treating parameters as random variables with distributions. Recent advances in uncertainty quantification methods provide new approaches for analyzing models with random parameters. Modelling key parameters as random variables changes the characteristics of the model. The computational efficiency of polynomial chaos methods helps in better predicting and synthesizing models with data.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Pearse James Buchanan, Alessandro Tagliabue
Summary: Ocean deoxygenation is a growing concern for marine ecosystems, influenced by human activities. Changes in oxygen concentrations are affected by both oxygen supply and demand, with biogeochemical processes shaping oxygen demand in certain regions while ventilation changes dominate in others. Improved understanding and representation of these processes in Earth System Models is crucial for accurate projections of ecosystem risk and vulnerability.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
D. Ye, L. Veen, A. Nikishova, J. Lakhlili, W. Edeling, O. O. Luk, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, A. G. Hoekstra
Summary: Uncertainty quantification is a key component in computational models involving uncertainties, and this work presents uncertainty quantification patterns designed to support the analysis of uncertainty in coupled multi-scale and multi-domain applications. The UQPs provide basic building blocks for tailored uncertainty quantification in multiscale models.
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
L. Keppler, P. Landschuetzer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Gruber
Summary: Several methods have been developed to quantify the oceanic accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) in response to rising atmospheric CO2. Yet, we still lack a corresponding estimate of the changes in the total oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Our study extends the MOBO-DIC machine learning approach to estimate global monthly fields of DIC from 2004 through 2019. We find that the oceanic DIC pool increased linearly at an average rate of 3.2 +/- 0.7 Pg C yr(-1) over these 16 years, which is statistically indistinguishable from current estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Nicolas Gruber, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Tim DeVries, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschuetzer, Galen A. McKinley, Jens Daniel Mueller
Summary: The ocean has absorbed a significant amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with rates increasing over the years but showing variability. The ocean carbon sink stagnated in the 1990s but strengthened again after 2000, with the Southern Ocean experiencing the most significant changes. Understanding the variability of the ocean carbon sink is crucial for policy making and future projections.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Guillermo Garcia-Sanchez, Ana Maria Mancho, Makrina Agaoglou, Stephen Wiggins
Summary: This paper proposes a new uncertainty measure that can be used to assess the performance of transport models in determining the origin or source of a given observation. The study reveals that the proposed measure of uncertainty is linked to the invariant dynamical structures of the model within the vicinity of the observation. The paper also demonstrates the application of this proposed method in evaluating the performance of ocean data sets during an actual oil spill event in the Eastern Mediterranean in 2021.
PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jens Terhaar, Thomas L. Froelicher, Fortunat Joos
Summary: Future ocean acidification depends on continuous ocean uptake of CO2, which is influenced by climate policies. Traditional climate models have low uncertainties in projected acidification but high uncertainties in global warming. Converging climate simulations to given temperature levels reveals that uncertainties in acidification are much larger than reported, and are dominated by the reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and TCRE.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Christopher Edward Cornwall, Steeve Comeau, Simon D. Donner, Chris Perry, John Dunne, Ruben van Hooidonk, Steve Ryan, Cheryl Annette Logan
Summary: Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is crucial, especially considering corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. This study estimates how symbiont evolution and shuffling may influence responses to ocean warming and acidification under different emissions scenarios. The results show that symbiont adaptive capacity can favor positive net reef calcium carbonate production, but the projections vary spatially and by emissions scenario.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Jasmin G. John, Charles A. Stock, Hyung-Gyu Lim, John P. Dunne, Paul Ginoux, Jessica Y. Luo
Summary: Deposition of mineral dust plays a crucial role in upper-ocean biogeochemical processes by delivering iron to iron-limited regions. This study examines the impact of dynamically changing iron deposition on tropical Pacific Ocean biogeochemistry using a fully coupled earth system model. The results show that increasing emissions and radiative forcing lead to enhanced dust and iron deposition, which align with soil moisture decreases and precipitation increases. The increased delivery of soluble iron reduces iron limitation in the equatorial Pacific and affects primary production and organic carbon flux. These findings highlight the importance of considering land-air-sea interactions when projecting ocean biogeochemical changes.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Fortunat Joos, Angelique Hameau, Thomas L. Frolicher, David B. Stephenson
Summary: This study analyzes historical climate simulations to determine the cause of the positive trend in the seasonal amplitude of surface ocean pCO(2) and finds evidence of anthropogenic forcing. The results indicate that the trends in mid-latitudes are attributable to human activities, while no trends are detected in the tropics and the Southern Ocean.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Benjamin Buchovecky, Graeme A. Macgilchrist, Mitchell Bushuk, F. Alexander Haumann, Thomas L. Froelicher, Natacha Le Grix, John Dunne
Summary: Antarctic sea ice can be predicted several years in advance, and this predictability extends to the intense phytoplankton bloom that occurs in the austral spring. November net primary production (NPP) in many Southern Ocean regions can potentially be predicted 7 to 10 years in advance. The predictability of NPP is influenced by sea ice extent and absorbed shortwave radiation, with a seasonal lag.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Editorial Material
Environmental Sciences
J. P. Dunne
Summary: This passage discusses the relationship between ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal techniques and the global biological carbon pump. The paper suggests that with climate change, ocean carbon storage may weaken, but the physical sequestration response at a global scale may increase.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Friedrich A. Burger, Thomas L. Frolicher
Summary: Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon causes acidification, with increased hydrogen ion concentrations and decreased calcium carbonate mineral saturation states. This study investigates the driving mechanisms of high hydrogen ion concentrations and low calcium carbonate mineral saturation states extreme events. The study shows that enhanced temperature is a crucial driver of high hydrogen ion concentration extremes, while low calcium carbonate mineral saturation states extremes are primarily driven by increases in surface carbon concentration.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2023)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Natacha Le Grix, William L. Cheung, Gabriel Reygondeau, Jakob Zscheischler, Thomas L. Frolicher
Summary: Understanding the risks posed by ocean extreme events is crucial for predicting and mitigating their harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. This study reveals the importance of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic fish biomass.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Ecology
Gerald G. Singh, Zaman Sajid, Faisal Khan, Charles Mather, Joey R. Bernhardt, Thomas L. Frolicher
Summary: Current ecological risk assessment methods underestimate the importance of rare disaster events. We propose an updated approach that specifically incorporates disaster risk potential and can be applied in various data contexts and expert judgment-based risk assessments.
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yeray Santana-Falcon, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Lenton, Chris D. Jones, Friedrich A. Burger, Jasmin G. John, Jerry Tjiputra, Jorg Schwinger, Michio Kawamiya, Thomas L. Frolicher, Tilo Ziehn, Roland Seferian
Summary: Anthropogenic warming of the oceans and associated deoxygenation are causing irreversible changes in marine ecosystems, particularly in marine habitats. These changes will have profound and long-lasting impacts on the viability of marine ecosystems.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Correction
Plant Sciences
Julianne DeAngelo, Benjamin T. Saenz, Isabella B. Arzeno-Soltero, Christina A. Frieder, Matthew C. C. Long, Joseph Hamman, Kristen A. Davis, Steven J. Davis
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, Julia Pongratz
Summary: This study uses a novel approach to reconstruct and predict the variations in the global carbon budget (GCB) by assimilating physical atmospheric and oceanic data. The results show a high correlation with historical GCB variations and the predictions have a high level of confidence.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Plant Sciences
Julianne DeAngelo, Benjamin T. Saenz, Isabella B. Arzeno-Soltero, Christina A. Frieder, Matthew C. Long, Joseph Hamman, Kristen A. Davis, Steven J. Davis
Summary: Net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets are driving interest in biomass-based negative emissions and bioenergy from marine sources. This study assesses the costs and climate benefits of global seaweed production using growth and technoeconomic models. The results indicate that seaweed-based climate benefits are feasible, but further research is needed to reduce economic and biophysical uncertainties.
Article
Environmental Sciences
H. Oliver, D. J. McGillicuddy Jr, K. M. Krumhardt, M. C. Long, N. R. Bates, B. C. Bowler, D. T. Drapeau, W. M. Balch
Summary: This study reveals the key limiting factors for coccolithophore growth in the Great Calcite Belt (GCB) through in situ measurements and modeling. The findings highlight the significant influence of temperature changes on the increase in PIC.
GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
(2023)