Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems

The True Cost of Measles Outbreaks During the Postelimination Era

(2019) Maria E. Sundaram et al.   JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION

The impact of past vaccination coverage and immunity on pertussis resurgence

(2018) Matthieu Domenech de Cellès et al.   Science Translational Medicine

Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data

(2018) Tobias S. Brett et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Outbreaks in a Rapidly Changing Central Africa — Lessons from Ebola

(2018) Vincent J. Munster et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks

(2018) Quan-Hui Liu et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Characterizing the impact of spatial clustering of susceptibility for measles elimination

(2018) Shaun A. Truelove et al.   VACCINE

Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases

(2017) Tobias S. Brett et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing

(2017) Paige B. Miller et al.   Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

(2017) Erin A. Mordecai et al.   PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis

(2016) Marco Ajelli et al.   BMC Medicine

Potent protection against H5N1 and H7N9 influenza via childhood hemagglutinin imprinting

(2016) Katelyn M. Gostic et al.   SCIENCE

Combating pertussis resurgence: One booster vaccination schedule does not fit all

(2015) Maria A. Riolo et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination

(2015) Suzanne M. O’Regan et al.   Theoretical Ecology

A predictive fitness model for influenza

(2014) Marta Łuksza et al.   NATURE

Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections

(2014)   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy

(2014) S. Merler et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Epidemiological Consequences of Imperfect Vaccines for Immunizing Infections

(2014) F. M. G. Magpantay et al.   SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED MATHEMATICS

The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic

(2014) Marco Ajelli et al.   Scientific Reports

FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations

(2013) John J Grefenstette et al.   BMC PUBLIC HEALTH

Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination

(2013) Suzanne M. O’Regan et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems

(2012) Charles T. Perretti et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

(2012) L. Dai et al.   SCIENCE

Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications

(2012) Andrew J. Black et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread

(2012) Laura Fumanelli et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

Slowing Down in Spatially Patterned Ecosystems at the Brink of Collapse

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

The Role of Subway Travel in an Influenza Epidemic: A New York City Simulation

(2011) Philip Cooley et al.   JOURNAL OF URBAN HEALTH-BULLETIN OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF MEDICINE

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   SCIENCE

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models

(2010) Marco Ajelli et al.   BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning

(2010) Alan Hastings et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

(2010) John M. Drake et al.   NATURE

An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission

(2009) Marco Ajelli et al.   JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Vaccine Refusal, Mandatory Immunization, and the Risks of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

(2009) Saad B. Omer et al.   NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE

Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission

(2008) Nicholas C. Grassly et al.   NATURE REVIEWS MICROBIOLOGY

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

(2008) Joël Mossong et al.   PLOS MEDICINE