Can substitution of imported gasoline by locally produced molasses ethanol in Ethiopia be sustainable? An eco-efficiency assessment

Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing countries in the world with a 10.9% GDP growth rate in 2017. This high growth cannot be sustained without the deployment of modern energy in its different forms. To this end, the government is approaching the production of different types of modern and renewable energy. Among the renewable energy, molasses ethanol is the one given attention. This piece of research is aimed at evaluating the sustainability of molasses ethanol production and consumption considering gasoline substitution potential and eco-efficiency. The results show that achieving a 10% molasses-based ethanol blend with gasoline (E10) throughout the country is difficult even with production at full capacity of the existing factories. To achieve E10, 76.2 million liter annual production of ethanol is required, while the current production potential is only 20 million liter. The ambitious government plan of E15 by 2020 can only be achieved by 2025 if all the plants under construction are operational by 2025 and can operate at full capacity. If the plan is achieved, 31.85, 74.5 and 159 million USD can be saved yearly from the E10, E15 and E20 mandates, respectively. Using the byproducts as much as possible within the ethanol-processing framework significantly increases the eco-efficiency (40%) of the products.