Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Origins of abrupt change? Postfire subalpine conifer regeneration declines nonlinearly with warming and drying

(2019) Winslow D. Hansen et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Permafrost is warming at a global scale

(2019) Boris K. Biskaborn et al.   Nature Communications

Monitoring and Forecasting the Impact of the 2018 Summer Heatwave on Vegetation

(2019) Clément Albergel et al.   Remote Sensing

Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world

(2019) Sapna Sharma et al.   Nature Climate Change

Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration

(2019) Kimberley T. Davis et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Global Environmental Changes Impact Soil Hydraulic Functions through Biophysical Feedbacks

(2019) David A. Robinson et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The potential role of intrinsic processes in generating abrupt and quasi‐synchronous tree declines during the Holocene

(2019) Tanjona Ramiadantsoa et al.   ECOLOGY

Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world

(2019) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern

(2019) Kai Kornhuber et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures

(2019) J. Carnicer et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Global warming impairs stock–recruitment dynamics of corals

(2019) Terry P. Hughes et al.   NATURE

Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests

(2019) Monica G. Turner et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Water clarity and temperature effects on walleye safe harvest: an empirical test of the safe operating space concept

(2019) Gretchen J. A. Hansen et al.   Ecosphere

Arctic climate shifts drive rapid ecosystem responses across the West Greenland landscape

(2019) Jasmine E Saros et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Coastal low cloudiness and fog enhance crop water use efficiency in a California agricultural system

(2018) Sara A. Baguskas et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

Insect-Borne Plant Pathogens and Their Vectors: Ecology, Evolution, and Complex Interactions

(2018) Sanford D. Eigenbrode et al.   Annual Review of Entomology

How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations

(2018) Grégory Beaugrand et al.   Annual Review of Marine Science

Herbivory and drought generate short-term stochasticity and long-term stability in a savanna understory community

(2018) Corinna Riginos et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Effect of Reduced Summer Cloud Shading on Evaporative Demand and Wildfire in Coastal Southern California

(2018) A. Park Williams et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene

(2018) Terry P. Hughes et al.   SCIENCE

Abrupt Change in Ecological Systems: Inference and Diagnosis

(2018) Zak Ratajczak et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Future climate risk from compound events

(2018) Jakob Zscheischler et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

(2018) Sebastian Bathiany et al.   Science Advances

Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages

(2018) Terry P. Hughes et al.   NATURE

Linking economic growth pathways and environmental sustainability by understanding development as alternate social–ecological regimes

(2018) Graeme S. Cumming et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

(2018) Will Steffen et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Quantification of drought during the collapse of the classic Maya civilization

(2018) Nicholas P. Evans et al.   SCIENCE

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

(2018) Connor Nolan et al.   SCIENCE

Transient phenomena in ecology

(2018) Alan Hastings et al.   SCIENCE

Multiple facets of biodiversity drive the diversity–stability relationship

(2018) Dylan Craven et al.   Nature Ecology & Evolution

Can novel pest outbreaks drive ecosystem transitions in northern-boreal birch forest?

(2018) Ole Petter Laksforsmo Vindstad et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Physical drivers of seagrass spatial configuration: the role of thresholds

(2018) Amy V. Uhrin et al.   LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

Cascading regime shifts within and across scales

(2018) Juan C. Rocha et al.   SCIENCE

Ecological memory modifies the cumulative impact of recurrent climate extremes

(2018) Terry P. Hughes et al.   Nature Climate Change

Tamm Review: Shifting global fire regimes: Lessons from reburns and research needs

(2017) Susan J. Prichard et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Patterns and drivers of biodiversity-stability relationships under climate extremes

(2017) Hans J. De Boeck et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Ruffed grouse population declines after introduction of West Nile virus

(2017) Glenn E. Stauffer et al.   JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT

Extreme precipitation and phosphorus loads from two agricultural watersheds

(2017) Stephen R. Carpenter et al.   LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Determinants of woody encroachment and cover in African savannas

(2017) Aisling P. Devine et al.   OECOLOGIA

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

(2017) Caroline C. Ummenhofer et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon

(2017) Jonathon S. Wright et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Holocene large mammal mass death assemblage from South Africa

(2017) Lucinda Backwell et al.   QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL

Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse

(2017) Graeme S. Cumming et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture recycling mechanism

(2017) Yan Yu et al.   Nature Communications

Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact

(2017) Bert Wuyts et al.   Nature Communications

Fire history in southern Patagonia: human and climate influences on fire activity in Nothofagus pumilio forests

(2017) Ignacio A. Mundo et al.   Ecosphere

When natural habitat fails to enhance biological pest control – Five hypotheses

(2016) Teja Tscharntke et al.   BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Multiple feedbacks and the prevalence of alternate stable states on coral reefs

(2016) Ingrid A. van de Leemput et al.   CORAL REEFS

Loss of habitat and connectivity erodes species diversity, ecosystem functioning, and stability in metacommunity networks

(2016) Patrick L. Thompson et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Burn me twice, shame on who? Interactions between successive forest fires across a temperate mountain region

(2016) Brian J. Harvey et al.   ECOLOGY

Disease Ecology Meets Ecosystem Science

(2016) Daniel L. Preston et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience

(2016) Jill F Johnstone et al.   FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

(2016) Gretchen J. A. Hansen et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

(2016) Alan K. Knapp et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate

(2016) Cedric Gaucherel et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Fire–vegetation feedbacks and alternative states: common mechanisms of temperate forest vulnerability to fire in southern South America and New Zealand

(2016) T Kitzberger et al.   NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF BOTANY

Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community

(2016) Frances C. Clare et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

(2016) Anthony LeRoy Westerling   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

(2016) John T. Abatzoglou et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

(2016) Michael K. Tippett et al.   SCIENCE

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem

(2016) T. Wernberg et al.   SCIENCE

Heterarchies: Reconciling Networks and Hierarchies

(2016) Graeme S. Cumming   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Regeneration of montane forests 24 years after the 1988 Yellowstone fires: A fire-catalyzed shift in lower treelines?

(2016) Daniel C. Donato et al.   Ecosphere

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress—Insights from a System Dynamics—Individual-Based Hybrid Model

(2016) Christian E. Vincenot et al.   Frontiers in Plant Science

Dust-rainfall feedback in West African Sahel

(2015) Kailiang Yu et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Urbanization causes increased cloud base height and decreased fog in coastal Southern California

(2015) A. Park Williams et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

(2015) Forest Isbell et al.   NATURE

Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

(2015) Samuel E. Munoz et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains

(2015) W. John Calder et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions

(2015) Tom H. Oliver et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

(2015) György Kröel-Dulay et al.   Nature Communications

Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

(2015) N. Kettridge et al.   Scientific Reports

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

(2015) B. I. Cook et al.   Science Advances

Climate change triggers effects of fungal pathogens and insect herbivores on litter decomposition

(2014) Olaf Butenschoen et al.   ACTA OECOLOGICA-INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Resistance and resilience of a grassland ecosystem to climate extremes

(2014) David L. Hoover et al.   ECOLOGY

A quantitative framework for analysis of regime shifts in a Galápagos coastal lagoon

(2014) Alistair W. R. Seddon et al.   ECOLOGY

Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene

(2014) E. M. Wolkovich et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Quantifying ecological memory in plant and ecosystem processes

(2014) Kiona Ogle et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Recurrent Mild Drought Events Increase Resistance Toward Extreme Drought Stress

(2014) Sabrina Backhaus et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Evaluating spatial patterns of drought-induced tree mortality in a coastal California pine forest

(2014) Sara A. Baguskas et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

(2014) Ryan J. Harrigan et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Climate and abrupt vegetation change in Northern Europe since the last deglaciation

(2014) Alistair WR Seddon et al.   HOLOCENE

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

(2014) A. Conversi et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

(2014) Trisha L. Spanbauer et al.   PLoS One

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions

(2014) P. M. Brando et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A 2,000-year reconstruction of the rain-fed maize agricultural niche in the US Southwest

(2014) R. Kyle Bocinsky et al.   Nature Communications

Phosphorus loading, transport and concentrations in a lake chain: a probabilistic model to compare management options

(2013) Stephen R. Carpenter et al.   AQUATIC SCIENCES

Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests

(2013) Aaron S. Weed et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Influence of recent bark beetle outbreak on fire severity and postfire tree regeneration in montane Douglas-fir forests

(2013) Brian J. Harvey et al.   ECOLOGY

A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales

(2013) V Trouet et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel-experiment framework

(2013) Nate G. McDowell et al.   NEW PHYTOLOGIST

Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years

(2013) R. Kelly et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Is Alaska’s Boreal Forest Now Crossing a Major Ecological Threshold?

(2012) Daniel H. Mann et al.   ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH

Drivers, "Slow" Variables, "Fast" Variables, Shocks, and Resilience

(2012) Brian H. Walker et al.   ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY

Ecology of Compounding Disturbances: The Effects of Prescribed Burning After Clearcutting

(2012) Keri Pidgen et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Ecological stress memory and cross stress tolerance in plants in the face of climate extremes

(2012) Julia Walter et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL AND EXPERIMENTAL BOTANY

Cloud shading and fog drip influence the metabolism of a coastal pine ecosystem

(2012) Mariah S. Carbone et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980-2009)

(2012) Jennifer K. Balch et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Afternoon rain more likely over drier soils

(2012) Christopher M. Taylor et al.   NATURE

Thresholds for boreal biome transitions

(2012) M. Scheffer et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Control of the multimillennial wildfire size in boreal North America by spring climatic conditions

(2012) A. A. Ali et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

The dilemma of controlling cultural eutrophication of lakes

(2012) D. W. Schindler   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Climate, vegetation, introduced hosts and trade shape a global wildlife pandemic

(2012) X. Liu et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts

(2012) Terry P. Hughes et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Patterns, processes, and impacts of abrupt climate change in a warm world: the past 11,700 years

(2012) Bryan Shuman   Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change

Stochastic trajectories of succession initiated by extreme climatic events

(2011) J. Kreyling et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: case studies from the late Quaternary

(2011) John W. Williams et al.   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

An ecological perspective on extreme climatic events: a synthetic definition and framework to guide future research

(2011) Melinda D. Smith   JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY

Frequency of Sahelian storm initiation enhanced over mesoscale soil-moisture patterns

(2011) Christopher M. Taylor et al.   Nature Geoscience

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: Bifurcations, fast–slow systems and stochastic dynamics

(2011) Christian Kuehn   PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

(2011) Anthony L. Westerling et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Trophic Downgrading of Planet Earth

(2011) James A. Estes et al.   SCIENCE

Experimental drying intensifies burning and carbon losses in a northern peatland

(2011) M.R. Turetsky et al.   Nature Communications

Alaska’s changing fire regime — implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forestsThis article is one of a selection of papers from The Dynamics of Change in Alaska’s Boreal Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in Response to Climate Warming.

(2010) Eric S. Kasischke et al.   CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH

Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings

(2010) W. A. Brock et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests?

(2010) Martin Simard et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

West Nile virus impacts in American crow populations are associated with human land use and climate

(2010) Shannon L. LaDeau et al.   ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH

Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world1

(2010) Monica G. Turner   ECOLOGY

Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands

(2010) Merritt R. Turetsky et al.   Nature Geoscience

Landscape metrics indicate differences in patterns and dominant controls of ribbon forests in the Rocky Mountains, USA

(2009) Matthew F. Bekker et al.   APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE

Woodland-to-forest transition during prolonged drought in Minnesota after ca. AD 1300

(2009) Bryan Shuman et al.   ECOLOGY

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

(2009) Craig D. Allen et al.   FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Changes in fire regime break the legacy lock on successional trajectories in Alaskan boreal forest

(2009) JILL F. JOHNSTONE et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

(2009) E. Kriegler et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Abrupt climate change as an important agent of ecological change in the Northeast U.S. throughout the past 15,000 years

(2009) Bryan N. Shuman et al.   QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

Remote sensing of the urban heat island effect across biomes in the continental USA

(2009) Marc L. Imhoff et al.   REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT

MULTI-SEASON CLIMATE SYNCHRONIZED FOREST FIRES THROUGHOUT THE 20TH CENTURY, NORTHERN ROCKIES, USA

(2008) Penelope Morgan et al.   ECOLOGY

Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

(2008) CHRISTIAN MÖLLMANN et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Significance of summer fog and overcast for drought stress and ecological functioning of coastal California endemic plant species

(2008) Douglas T. Fischer et al.   JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

The influence of summertime fog and overcast clouds on the growth of a coastal Californian pine: a tree-ring study

(2008) A. Park Williams et al.   OECOLOGIA

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

(2008) T. M. Lenton et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA