4.7 Article

Relative evaluation of regression tools for urban area electrical energy demand forecasting

Journal

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
Volume 218, Issue -, Pages 555-564

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.108

Keywords

Electrical energy demand forecasting; Impact of meteorological parameters on demand forecasting; Smart-grid management; Machine learning; Regression tools; Random forest regressor; K-nearest neighbour regressor; Linear regressor

Ask authors/readers for more resources

Load forecasting is the most fundamental application in Smart-Grid, which provides essential input to Demand Response, Topology Optimization and Abnormally Detection, facilitating the integration of intermittent clean energy sources. In this work, several regression tools are analyzed using larger datasets for urban area electrical load forecasting. The regression tools which are used are Random Forest Regressor, k-Nearest Neighbour Regressor and Linear Regressor. This work explores the use of regression tool for regional electric load forecasting by correlating lower distinctive categorical level (season, day of the week) and weather parameters. The regression analysis has been done on continuous time basis as well as vertical time axis approach. The vertical time approach is considering a sample time period (e.g seasonally and weekly) of data for four years and has been tested for the same time period for the consecutive year. This work has uniqueness in electrical demand forecasting using regression tools through vertical approach and it also considers the impact of meteorological parameters. This vertical approach uses less amount of data compare to continuous time-series as well as neural network techniques. A correlation study, where both the Pearson method and visual inspection, of the vertical approach depicts meaningful relation between pre-processing of data, test methods and results, for the regressors examined through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). By examining the structure of various regressors they are compared for the lowest MAPE. Random Forest Regressor provides better short-term load prediction (30 min) and kNN offers relatively better long-term load prediction (24 h). (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.7
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Energy & Fuels

Solar-DG and DSTATCOM Concurrent Planning in Reconfigured Distribution System Using APSO and GWO-PSO Based on Novel Objective Function

Bikash Kumar Saw, Aashish Kumar Bohre, Jalpa H. Jobanputra, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: This paper reports the concurrent planning of multiple Distributed Generations (DGs) with reconfiguration in IEEE 33 and 69 bus Radial Distribution Network (RDN) using Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO) and hybrid Grey Wolf-Particle Swarm Optimization (GWO-PSO). A novel multiple objective-based fitness function (MOFF) is proposed based on various performance parameters and economic perspectives. Two case studies on IEEE 33 and 69 bus RDN are presented to validate the proposed methodology. The results analysis shows better performance with GWO-PSO and enhanced short-circuit tolerance capacity of the RDN.

ENERGIES (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

Combined Heat and Power Economic Dispatching within Energy Network using Hybrid Metaheuristic Technique

Paramjeet Kaur, Krishna Teerth Chaturvedi, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: CHP plants in the smart network environment require optimal techno-economic dispatching to provide both electricity and heat demand while minimizing energy cost.

ENERGIES (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

Reliability Enhancement of Fast Charging Station under Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Failures and Repairs

Konara Mudiyanselage Sandun Y. Konara, Mohan Lal Kolhe, Nils Ulltveit-Moe, Indika A. M. Balapuwaduge

Summary: This study aims to improve the charging reliability of electric vehicle (EV) users in a fast charging station (FCS) by proposing charging coordination strategies and analyzing the performance of off-board mobile chargers (MOBCs) reservation. The proposed strategies allow optimal utilization of limited charging resources while ensuring reliable charging for plugged-in EVs under random failures. The results show that the strategies outperform the current charging process in terms of resource utilization, reliability, and satisfactory quality of service for EV users.

ENERGIES (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

How Acid Washing Nickel Foam Substrates Improves the Efficiency of the Alkaline Hydrogen Evolution Reaction

Thomas B. B. Ferriday, Suhas Nuggehalli Sampathkumar, Peter Hugh Middleton, Jan Van Herle, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: Nickel foam substrates are commonly used as porous 3D substrates for renewable energy applications. This study reports the effects of acid washing on the electrochemical performance of these substrates. It was found that acid washing increased the current density and electrochemically active surface area, and improved the initial water dissociation step of the hydrogen evolution reaction. This demonstrates the utility of acid washing nickel foam electrodes.

ENERGIES (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

Machine learning based renewable energy generation and energy consumption forecasting

Akash Talwariya, Pushpendra Singh, Jalpa H. Jobanputra, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: Renewable energy generation is crucial to address the challenges posed by fossil fuels, environmental impact, and variable consumption patterns. This study proposes a machine learning-based neural network algorithm to accurately forecast the generation and consumption of renewable energy. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly improve the accuracy of solar and wind power generation forecasting as well as energy consumption forecast.

ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS (2023)

Article Engineering, Chemical

Economic Dispatch of Combined Heat and Power Plant Units within Energy Network Integrated with Wind Power Plant

Paramjeet Kaur, Krishna Teerth Chaturvedi, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: Cogeneration, also known as combined heat and power (CHP) system, reduces costs and emissions by using waste heat from steam turbines and helps overcome the intermittency of renewable energy. This study analysed the economic dispatch of a CHP system connected with a wind power plant and found that operational costs were significantly reduced with the integration of wind energy.

PROCESSES (2023)

Article Electrochemistry

Optimal Utilization of Charging Resources of Fast Charging Station with Opportunistic Electric Vehicle Users

Konara Mudiyanselage Sandun Y. Konara, Mohan Lal Kolhe, Nils Ulltveit-Moe, Indika A. M. Balapuwaduge

Summary: The key challenge of electric vehicle (EV) rapid growth is how to manage energy charging resources optimally at EV fast-charging stations (FCSs). The rapid deployment of fast-charging stations provides a viable solution to the potential driving range anxiety and charging autonomy. This study proposes resource allocation and charging coordination strategies to maximize the utilization of limited charging resources by opportunistic ultra-fast charging EV users (UEVs) when pre-scheduled users (SEVs) do not occupy them.

BATTERIES-BASEL (2023)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Data driven approach for the management of wind and solar energy integrated electrical distribution network with high penetration of electric vehicles

Manuel S. Mathew, Mohan Lal Kolhe, Surya Teja Kandukuri, Christian W. Omlin

Summary: The objective of this study is to propose a real-time management system for EV charging that maximizes the utilization of renewable energy. An electric power distribution network with average and peak demands of 1.51 MW and 3.6 MW respectively was chosen. Models based on k-Nearest Neighbors algorithms were developed to predict the performances of renewable energy systems, and a demand side management algorithm was developed for the charge/discharge scheduling of EVs.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

COST-WINNERS: COST reduction WIth Neural NEtworks-based augmented Random Search for simultaneous thermal and electrical energy storage control

Sven Myrdahl Opalic, Fabrizio Palumbo, Morten Goodwin, Lei Jiao, Henrik Kofoed Nielsen, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: In this paper, the combination of augmented random search algorithm and artificial neural networks is proposed to optimize the energy cost in a smart warehouse by controlling the battery energy storage system and the thermal energy storage system simultaneously. The developed solution demonstrates superior performance in terms of energy cost minimization compared to the state-of-the-art solutions.

JOURNAL OF ENERGY STORAGE (2023)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Real-time computing of power flows and node voltages in electrical energy network using decision trees

Sonali Nandanwar, Narayan Prasad Patidar, M. Deva Brinda, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: This paper proposes a decision tree-based approach for real-time estimation of power flows and node voltages in electrical energy networks. The decision tree accurately estimates the line power flows and bus voltages, providing the needed information for prioritizing power injection from clean energy resources in sustainable energy networks.

CLEANER ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (2023)

Article Engineering, Environmental

Raising the temperature on electrodes for anion exchange membrane electrolysis-activity and stability aspects

T. B. Ferriday, P. H. Middleton, M. L. Kolhe, J. Van Herle

Summary: This study investigates the effects of annealing temperature and time on the activity and stability of the anode and cathode electrodes in an anion exchange membrane water electrolyser (AEMWE). The results show that moderate heat-treatment improves morphology, enhances reaction kinetics, and increases surface area. The annealing temperature also affects hydrogen adsorption. The stability of the electrodes is carefully characterized, and a degradation pathway for carbon catalysts is proposed.

CHEMICAL ENGINEERING JOURNAL ADVANCES (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

Numerical Simulation on Effect of Separator Thickness on Coupling Phenomena in Single Cell of PEFC under Higher Temperature Operation Condition at 363 K and 373 K

Akira Nishimura, Daiki Mishima, Kyohei Toyoda, Syogo Ito, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: The effect of separator thickness on the mass distributions and current density in PEFC is investigated in this study. Numerical simulations using a 3D model show that using a 2.0mm thickness separator results in lower molar concentrations of H-2 and O-2 at initial operation temperatures of 363K and 373K. Additionally, lower molar concentration of H2O is observed along the gas channel at 373K for separators with thicknesses of 1.5mm and 1.0mm. Moreover, the current density is highest when using a 2.0mm thickness separator, regardless of the initial operation temperature, with the most significant difference observed in the case of A40%RH&C40%RH.

ENERGIES (2023)

Article Energy & Fuels

Placement analysis of combined renewable and conventional distributed energy resources within a radial distribution network

Amandeep Gill, Pushpendra Singh, Jalpa H. Jobanputra, Mohan Lal Kolhe

Summary: This article discusses the optimal placement of distributed energy resources in the distribution network to reduce power loss and enhance voltage quality. By considering constraints such as size, location, number, type, and power factor, intelligent techniques are used to determine the optimal placement strategy.

AIMS ENERGY (2022)

Article Computer Science, Information Systems

Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio Using CNN-RNN and Transfer Learning

Surendra Solanki, Vasudev Dehalwar, Jaytrilok Choudhary, Mohan Lal Kolhe, Koki Ogura

Summary: Cognitive radio aims to improve spectrum utilization in wireless communication, with spectrum sensing being a critical component. Traditional methods involve extracting features from received signals, but advancements in AI and deep learning have allowed for more accurate spectrum sensing through models like a hybrid CNN-RNN. Transfer learning is used to enhance accuracy for low SNR signals, with improved performance compared to other models in the field.

IEEE ACCESS (2022)

Proceedings Paper Construction & Building Technology

PV Hosting Capacity Estimation in Low Voltage Feeders Through Bayesian Statistical Inference

Ruben Lliuyacc-Blas, Svein Olav Nyberg, Muhandiram Arachchige Subodha Tharangi Ireshika, Mohan Lal Kolhe, Peter Kepplinger

Summary: This study applies Bayesian statistical inference to estimate the PV hosting capacities of more than 5000 feeders in Austria. The results show that the hosting capacity of the majority of feeders can be estimated with a small error using only a random sample of 5%. The proposed approach also allows for the evaluation of new parameters to improve the accuracy of hosting capacity estimation.

PROCEEDINGS OF 2022 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON POWER, ENERGY AND ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING (CPEEE 2022) (2022)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Relative evaluation of probabilistic methods for spatio-temporal wind forecasting

Lars odegaard Bentsen, Narada Dilp Warakagoda, Roy Stenbro, Paal Engelstad

Summary: This study investigates uncertainty modeling in wind power forecasting using different parametric and non-parametric methods. Johnson's SU distribution is found to outperform Gaussian distributions in predicting wind power. This research contributes to the literature by introducing Johnson's SU distribution as a candidate for probabilistic wind forecasting.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2024)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Comparison of ethane recovery processes for lean gas based on a coupled model

Xing Liu, Qiuchen Wang, Yunhao Wen, Long Li, Xinfang Zhang, Yi Wang

Summary: This study analyzes the characteristics of process parameters in three lean gas ethane recovery processes and establishes a prediction and multiobjective optimization model for ethane recovery and system energy consumption. A new method for comparing ethane recovery processes for lean gas is proposed, and the addition of extra coolers improves the ethane recovery. The support vector regression model based on grey wolf optimization demonstrates the highest prediction accuracy, and the multiobjective multiverse optimization algorithm shows the best optimization performance and diversity in the solutions.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2024)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

A novel deep-learning framework for short-term prediction of cooling load in public buildings

Cairong Song, Haidong Yang, Xian-Bing Meng, Pan Yang, Jianyang Cai, Hao Bao, Kangkang Xu

Summary: The paper proposes a novel deep learning-based prediction framework, aTCN-LSTM, for accurate cooling load predictions. The framework utilizes a gate-controlled multi-head temporal convolutional network and a sparse probabilistic self-attention mechanism with a bidirectional long short-term memory network to capture both temporal and long-term dependencies in the cooling load sequences. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, which can serve as an effective guide for HVAC chiller scheduling and demand management initiatives.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2024)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

The impact of social interaction and information acquisition on the adoption of soil and water conservation technology by farmers: Evidence from the Loess Plateau, China

Zhe Chen, Xiaojing Li, Xianli Xia, Jizhou Zhang

Summary: This study uses survey data from the Loess Plateau in China to evaluate the impact of social interaction on the adoption of soil and water conservation (SWC) technology by farmers. The study finds that social interaction increases the likelihood of farmers adopting SWC, and internet use moderates this effect. The positive impact of social interaction on SWC adoption is more pronounced for farmers in larger villages and those who join cooperative societies.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2024)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Study on synergistic heat transfer enhancement and adaptive control behavior of baffle under sudden change of inlet velocity in a micro combustor

Chenghua Zhang, Yunfei Yan, Kaiming Shen, Zongguo Xue, Jingxiang You, Yonghong Wu, Ziqiang He

Summary: This paper reports a novel method that significantly improves combustion performance, including heat transfer enhancement under steady-state conditions and adaptive stable flame regulation under velocity sudden increase.

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION (2024)