Journal
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
Volume 213, Issue -, Pages 688-699Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.037
Keywords
Resource security; Nonferrous metals; Price; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; Macroeconomics
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Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation, China [71633006, 71573282, 71874210]
- Major Project of National Social Science Fund, China [18ZDA049, 18ZDA061]
- Annual Innovation-driven Project in Central South University in 2017, China [2017CX014]
- Annual Innovation-driven Project (Youth Innovation Team) in Central South University in 2019, China [2019CX016]
- Postgraduate Survey Research Project in Central South University in 2018, China [2018dcyj029]
- Central South University sublimation education scholars funding in 2015, China
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In recent years, the price of international nonferrous metals has undergone drastic fluctuations, which could exert significant shock effects on macroeconomic variables. Based on the perspective of resource security, this paper reveals the relationship between the nonferrous metal price shocks and China's macroeconomic variables by establishing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model embedded with nonferrous metal consumption and means of production blocks. The model is based on the optimal decision-making behaviours of three departments that satisfy multiple constraints to realize optimal policy making. Furthermore, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method is applied to verify the shock effects of nonferrous metal price and obtain more robust results. The Bayesian results show that there is consistency among nonferrous metal price shocks, consumer reference shocks, wage bonus shocks, technical shocks, and price-adjusted shocks. The impulse response function results indicate that the stimulation of an international nonferrous metal price increase would have significant positive impacts on the macroeconomic variables of investment, money supply, consumption and total output but negative effects on labour demand. In addition, the impulse responses of wage levels and the rate of inflation to nonferrous metal price shocks present obvious lagging effects. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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